Happy Thanksgiving! One thing I’m definitely thankful for this year, a full day of NFL games. And boy, do we have a good slate on the board for us. The NFL schedulers pulled off a great lineup for us, and with the way the playoff races are shaping up, these are three huge games for all six teams. Let’s dive in and preview this Thanksgiving Day slate. Make our NFL picks and place a few best bets.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (-2.5) 1:00 ET FOX
Game 1 will feature the Detroit Lions, who’ve played on Thanksgiving every year since 1934, with the exception of the 1939-1944 seasons due to the Great Depression and World War II. They’ll host the Green Bay Packers in an important NFC North battle. Both teams are one game behind the division-leading Chicago Bears. The Packers hold the final seed in the NFC playoffs, while the Lions sit as the first team on the outside looking in. These teams played each other back in Week 1. The Packers took care of business and put themselves quickly into the Super Bowl conversation with a 27-13 win.
Packers-Lions Best Bets:
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)
This should be a tough, hard-fought game by both sides. In the first matchup back in Week 1, it was one-sided by the Packers, who have a tough defense. It won’t be that easy for Green Bay on Thanksgiving, but their defense will still be tough and they’ll get after Jared Goff. It’s been hard to run the ball against them this season. We saw last week how explosive Gibbs is when he gets the ball in his hands, and that’s what the Lions did in Week 1. Gibbs had 10 catches on 10 targets. In his five games against the Packers, he’s had at least four receptions in four of them.
Detroit Lions -2.5 (-108)
This is a tough game to pick, but give me the Lions in this one. The Packers won the first matchup pretty convincingly, but it won’t be that easy this time. The Lions at home, in the second divisional matchup, and getting them by less than a field goal is enough to convince me. The Lions are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games where they were favored. The Lions have gotten the best of the Packers in three of the last four games and six of their last eight matchups. The Lions have also won three of the last four at home against the Packers.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) 4:30 ET CBS
The Dallas Cowboys are the other Thanksgiving Day tradition. They’ve played on the holiday every year since 1966, with the exception of 1975 and 1977. They’ll host the struggling Kansas City Chiefs in a game with massive playoff implications. Neither of these teams is in the playoffs if they started today. Dallas sits a few games out of the playoffs, and according to NFL.com, has about a 9% chance to make the postseason. They are coming off a huge win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12.
The visiting Chiefs sit three games behind the Broncos in the AFC West and are the third team out of the playoffs on the AFC side of things, 1 game behind the Bills for the last spot. NFL.com has their playoff chances at 54% after a huge comeback win over the Indianapolis Colts last week at home in overtime.
Chiefs-Cowboys Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
There’s nobody in the league right now you want to have the ball in their hands when you need a win more than Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are in crunch time right now and cannot afford losses, especially against a team like the Dallas Cowboys. Mahomes isn’t afraid to use his legs when the Chiefs need it most, and now is that time. Last week, we saw his dash for 30 yards against the Colts when the Chiefs needed it most. Mahomes has crossed this number seven times this season, and he’ll be ready to show off his legs in front of the whole world Thursday.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-114)
Not only will Mahomes be showing off, he’s also going to lead his team to victory. It’s a bit shocking the Chiefs are only laying three points here. Dallas is coming off a big emotional win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Both showing they can play with the big boys, but also setting up for the perfect let-down spot. If the Chiefs didn’t need this game, I may consider Dallas here. But this is a business trip for the Chiefs. Show up, take care of business, and get the win. They’ll do so by at least three, but probably a fair amount more.
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Baltimore Ravens (-7) 8:20 ET NBC/Peacock
The Thanksgiving Day nightcap is an AFC North thriller. You guessed it, this one has massive playoff implications as well. The visiting Cincinnati Bengals are looking likely to get Joe Burrow back this week after he almost played against the Patriots in Week 12. Unfortunately for them, both Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson will miss. Cincinnati is only 3 games behind the Ravens; they’d need a lot of help, but a loss all but eliminates their playoff chances.
The Ravens were out of the playoffs going into Week 12, and excited the weekend with the divisional lead after their win over the Jets, and the Steelers’ loss to the Bears. It was the Ravens’ fifth win in a row after starting the year 1-5. They’ll aim to win and keep that streak rolling as they head toward what they hope is a playoff berth. These teams will meet again in two weeks for their second divisional matchup.
Bengals-Ravens Best Bets
Ja’Marr Chase Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Ja’Marr Chase loves to play against the Baltimore Ravens. In four of the eight games he’s played them he has over 125 yards through the air. Twice, he’s cleared 200 yards, including their last matchup last November when he had a 264-yard three-touchdown game. Coming off the suspension from last week, with Joe Burrow back, and Tee Higgins out. The Bengals will feed Chase like they love to do in this matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals +7 (-110)
After taking the favorites in the first two games, it’s time to switch to the underdogs in this game. Anytime you get an AFC North matchup where you can get one team with a whole touchdown, it’s very nice. These four teams always play each other closely. The Ravens have won five in a row, but it’s not been very smooth. Joe Burrow is going to bring a level of confidence to this team in his return. The Ravens have had the Bengals’ number, winning the last four in a row in the matchup. But, the of the four games final score has been within three points. The Ravens may win, but it’ll be a close one.
