Josh Allen and the 7-3 Buffalo Bills hit the road to Houston, Texas’s NRG Stadium. Davis Mills and the Houston Texans are awaiting them in this week’s Thursday Night Football game on Prime. Kickoff for this one is set for 8:15 PM ET. Let’s dive in and take a look at the Thursday Night Football picks, preview, and best bets for Week 12.
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a huge win over Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home on Sunday afternoon. The win keeps them 1.5 games back from the New England Patriots in the AFC East and as the first Wild Card team in right now. The jury is still out on whether Keon Coleman will be back for the team after being a healthy scratch for disciplinary reasons last week.
It’s a big game for the Houston Texans, who are currently three games behind the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. They are the first team “on the bubble,” a game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final Wild Card spot. They have the Kansas City Chiefs breathing down their neck. Unfortunately for Houston, they’ll once again be without quarterback CJ Stroud. Stroud has been unable to clear the concussion protocol, and Davis Mills will make his third start in a row.
Thursday Night Football Picks, Preview, and Best Bets: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Dalton Shultz Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)
Dalton Shultz, the Houston Texans tight end, has been a man on fire lately. He’s had at least six catches in the last three games, including both games where Davis Mills started at quarterback. In Mills’ two starts, Shultz has had 11 and nine targets, respectively. He’s hit this number with at least five catches in six of the last seven games he’s played in.
Overall, I expect this to be a lower-scoring defensive battle, forcing Davis Mills to work the ball out quickly and hit his big target on short routes. That’s perfect work for Shultz, who has been a catching machine no matter who is throwing him the ball from the quarterback position.
James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+130)
The Buffalo Bills are better when James Cook catches the ball out of the backfield. Last week, he caught the ball three times against the Buccaneers, and two weeks ago, he had five catches against the Miami Dolphins. The Bills hadn’t targeted him much in the previous four games, including two of their three losses. They opened the season throwing the ball to him plenty, where he had at least three catches in three of the first four games of the year.
The Texans’ defense is tough and hard to run against. The best way to get the ball into Cook’s hands is to try and give him space with short dump-offs. The Bills are also coming off a game against Tampa, where Josh Allen did a lot of running and took a lot of abuse. If they can cut that back a little on a short week, I think they’ll try.
Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-109)
I wouldn’t wait to bet this. Getting the Buffalo Bills against Davis Mills in prime time by a spread of less than two field goals? Sign me up. Buffalo is 5-5 ATS on the season, but 3-1 over their last four games. Outside of their beatdown at Miami, a game they likely just overlooked, this team has looked great over the last four games after their back-to-back losses to the Patriots and Falcons.
According to Actionnetwork.com, Josh Allen has faced a top defense, one allowing fewer than 20 PPG, 29 times in his career during the regular season. Allen is 24-5 SU, 23-5-1 ATS in those games, including 17-4-1 ATS when his opponent is over .500 SU on the season. Allen and this Bills team are great in the regular season. If CJ Stroud were playing, I’d be a little more hesitant, but give me all of the Bills this Thursday Night.
