The NBA’s in-season tournament, now branded the Emirates NBA Cup, is in its third year. All 30 teams are split into six groups and play four group games. Six group winners, plus two wildcards, advance to single-elimination quarter-finals at team venues; the semi-finals and final are in Las Vegas, scheduled for December 13 and 16. All games except the final count toward regular-season standings. Notably, overtime doesn’t count for point-differential tiebreakers this year.
Recent Champions
The Los Angeles Lakers won the inaugural event in 2023, with LeBron James earning the IST MVP. In 2024, the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Oklahoma Thunder in Las Vegas, with Giannis Antetokounmpo named NBA Cup MVP. That recent history underlines that star-driven talent, locked-in teams can build early-season momentum and carry it through to the knockouts.
West: Thunder, Warriors/Nuggets (Group C “of death”), and the LA Powers
Oklahoma City Thunder are firm favourites to top West Group A, as indicated by the sports betting platforms that are covering the tournament, ahead of the Timberwolves. They’ve started fast, and with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at MVP level, OKC look built for short-format success.
West Group C is the toughest on paper, the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, and Portland Trail Blazers made up the “group of death.” Denver are narrow favourites, but every team is in the mix.
West Group B looks wide open between the Clippers and the Lakers, with Memphis, Dallas, and New Orleans lurking. Depth and early availability have nudged the Clippers slightly ahead.
Verdict: Pencil in OKC as the safest qualifier; from Group C, Denver and Golden State feel like the two most likely to advance. From Group B, Clippers/Lakers is essentially a toss-up, but whichever LA team exits the group healthy has a genuine chance of success.
East: Cavaliers Steady, Knicks Lead a Stacked Group C, Bucks Still Dangerous
In the East Group A, the Cleveland Cavaliers are clear favourites based on early-season form and balance at both ends. Their profile, top-tier defence and multiple late-game shot creators, fits the Cup’s small sample, clutch-heavy environment.
East Group B includes the Boston Celtics, 76ers, Magic, Nets and Pistons. Boston’s depth and two-way ceiling make them the default pick to progress.
East Group C is arguably the conference’s strongest, featuring the New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and Charlotte Hornets. Odds have the Knicks nudging favourite status, but the Bucks, reigning cup holders behind Giannis, remain the scariest opponent if they escape this minefield. Miami’s cup style keeps them alive for a wild card.
Verdict: Cleveland and Boston are the cleanest reads to win Groups A and B. From Group C, New York have the inside track, but Milwaukee’s proven Cup pedigree makes them a prime contender to win the whole event again if they reach Las Vegas.
The Bottom Line: Who Lifts the Cup?
With the event’s short, high-pressure format, three things usually separate champions: star quality, strong early defensive identity, and depth across the bench. Based on those criteria, five teams look best placed, Oklahoma City, Denver, Golden State, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, with Boston and New York close behind. Las Vegas rewards squads that embrace the occasion, and right now, Oklahoma City appears the best balanced, narrowly ahead of Milwaukee’s experience and Denver’s continuity. So, the Thunder are the team to beat.
