Welcome to Week 9 of NFL action! Bye-Mageddon is behind us, and this week is loaded with intriguing matchups. There are a lot of games with spreads within three points; picking those games properly will play a big role in how our Week 9 NFL confidence pools go. Let’s dive in and pick every game for Sunday and Monday!
Last week was a tough one, with so many chalky games, you had to make sure you got the upsets correct. Five of the top six came in for us. I’m not sure where that Miami Dolphins team came from, but that’s on me for trusting the Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers and Bengals losing wasn’t ideal, and we missed on the Pittsburgh over Green Bay play, but that was the final game on the board. And it looked so good in the first half.
Just four teams are on bye in Week 9. The Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, and Philadelphia Eagles will all rest up and reload for Week 10. The Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens play Thursday night. Another week with no international games; those will return next week. The morning window is loaded with closely predicted games. In the afternoon, we’ll get just three games. Kansas City at Buffalo, which should be the game of the week, is the headliner. Seattle and Washington square off on Sunday night. Monday night is the no-defense game with the Cardinals at the Cowboys.
Week 9 NFL Confidence Pool Picks
High Confidence Picks
1.Chargers Over Titans
2.Rams Over Saints
3.Patriots Over Falcons
4.Jaguars Over Raiders
5.Packers Over Panthers
The Titans are just in straight fade mode until further notice. They can’t even cover spreads, let alone win games. Now all but two of their players are for sale? Jim Harbaugh is about to let his boys run all over this team. The Chargers roll easily in this game.
Tyler Shough is making his first start for the Saints. The way they talk about it and have already said he’s the guy for the rest of the year would lead you to believe they know it’s going to be ugly, but they have to see if he has it. And it’s against Sean McVay on the road? Good luck, Shough.
The New England Patriots have been the best team against the spread in 2025 and look every bit the part. They covered their three-game road stretch in all three of those games. The Falcons have been embarrassed by the Panthers and Dolphins this year, but have also beaten the Bills. Maybe they’ll put up a fight, but either way, New England is for real, and they’ll take care of business. Hopefully, the Falcons don’t go up 28-3 in this one.
Speaking of the Panthers, the spread on this game is a large one, and I’ll be betting the Panthers to cover against the Packers. But for these confidence pools where we are just picking straight up, how can you go against the Packers?
Confident Picks
6.Lions Over Vikings
7.49ers Over Giants
8.Bears Over Bengals
Another game with a bigger spread (8.5) that could end up being closer is this Lions-Vikings game. The Lions are clearly the better team, but we haven’t seen much of JJ McCarthy. Could McCarthy ball out and pull the upset? Division games can go that way, but it’s unlikely the way Detroit has been playing. It might end up close, but the Lions win at home.
San Francisco killed us last week, but we’re going to back them again. They’ve proven to be a really solid team, and just got caught in a bad spot against a Texans team that needed to win. The Giants have been a fun story, but give me Kyle Shanahan in this game.
The Chicago Bears dropped one last week after a long winning streak, but it shouldn’t take them long to get back in the win column. They play a Bengals team that lost to the New York Jets, and we don’t even know if Joe Flacco is playing at this point. Even if he is, he won’t be 100%.
Toss-Ups
9.Broncos Over Texans
10.Cardinals Over Cowboys
11.Commanders Over Seahawks
12.Colts Over Steelers
13.Chiefs Over Bills
The Texans earned enough respect beating San Francisco last week that I’ll be cautious with them in Week 9. However, I still don’t think they are a very good team, and Denver is good enough. Their better coached, better quarterbacked, and they’ll come out on top. This could be a defensive slugfest.
If Monday’s game counts in your pool, the Cardinals are worth a look. This should be a high-scoring shootout, and Arizona is the slightly better team.
Both the Seahawks and Commanders have had their ups and downs. but with Jayden Daniels on track to return, he gets the ship righted in Washington this week.
Indianapolis and Pittsburgh is a tough game. In the past, I’d always side with Pittsburgh in a spot like this. But the Colts are for real, and Pittsburgh isn’t. I’m not overly confident, but it’s hard to pick against the Colts right now.
The Chiefs and the Bills should be the game of the week. I don’t know if there’s a wrong pick in this one. It should be close, and it should be a great game. The Chiefs have looked great lately, I’ll ride with them.
