The final race of the NASCAR Cup Series season is here, and it’s time to crown a champion. It’s possibly the best Championship 4 we’ve had, as far as any of them could be argued to be the favorite, any of them could be argued to be the winner, and there wouldn’t be a big surprise when any of them wins the title. Let’s preview the Championship 4 drivers. Take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, the odds to win the championship, and the odds to win the race.
Stage points are out the window, playoff points are out the window, nothing else matters. It’s four drivers, Mano-a-Mano. The best finisher of the four is your 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe were locked in prior to Martinsville, and it’s a good thing. Both Joe Gibbs Racing drivers experienced engine troubles. They’ll be joined by Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron, who walked it off with a big move to win at Martinsville. And Kyle Larson, who made his way in via points over Christopher Bell.
Championship 4
Hamlin has a storied career, 60 wins, and three Daytona 500 championships. He’s just missing the Series Title. As a new father again, with his own father’s health not doing well. Now may be Hamlin’s last best shot as one of the senior drivers in the sport at 44 years old. It’s Hamlin’s fifth Championship 4 appearance, but first since 2021. His teammate Chase Briscoe joined the team in 2025, struggled out of the gate, but has been firing on all cylinders in the playoffs. He scored his first career win at Phoenix and is making his first Championship 4 appearance.
William Byron looks to carry on the legacy of the #24 car in the Cup Series. One of the most consistent drivers in 2025, Byron won the regular season championship. It’s the third straight year Byron has made the final four. Is this the year he gets it done? His teammate, Kyle Larson, is the only driver in this group with a previous championship win. He did so in 2021 and is looking to add to that resume in his third appearance in the Championship race.
Betting on the Championship
There are two ways to bet on the outcome of this championship. You can bet the “Championship winner” (the first set of odds listed here). That will pay out no matter where a driver finishes in the race if he becomes the champion. It’s only happened one time in this format where the driver who won the championship didn’t win the race. That was in 2023 when Ross Chastain won the race, and Ryan Blaney the championship.
You can also bet on the outright race winner, which could be one of those four or any of the other 34 drivers entered into the race. Personally, I believe you’ll have to win this race in order to be the champion, so I’ll take the bigger odds on the race winner. But if you think Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, or someone else could upset that apple cart. Grab the championship winner odds instead, or do both!
2025 NASCAR Cup Championship Winner Odds
Denny Hamlin +200
Kyle Larson +250
William Byron +260
Chase Briscoe +375
2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Odds
Denny Hamlin +350
Kyle Larson +425
William Byron +475
Ryan Blaney +650
Chase Briscoe +650
Christopher Bell +800
Joey Logano +1200
Chase Elliott +1800
Tyler Reddick +2200
Josh Berry +2500
Ross Chastain +3000
Bubba Wallace +4000
Kyle Busch +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Chris Buescher +5000
Carson Hocevar +5000
Austin Cindric +6000
Brad Keselowski +6000
Ty Gibbs +6000
Ryan Preece +8000
Erik Jones +12500
Austin Dillon +12500
Noah Gragson +35000
Daniel Suarez +35000
Michael McDowell +35000
Justin Haley +35000
Zane Smith +35000
John Hunter Nemechek +35000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +50000
AJ Allmendinger +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Cole Custer +100000
Ty Dillon +100000
Riley Herbst +200000
Cody Ware +200000
JJ Yeley +200000
Casey Mears +200000
NASCAR Picks: NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Odds and Best Bets
Ross Chastain Over Tyler Reddick (+120)
Let’s kick the card off with two drivers who aren’t racing for a championship this week. Tyler Reddick has been known to throw in the towel in this race, and looks forward to vacation when he isn’t competing for the championship. Last year, he was in the Champ 4 and finished in sixth place. Every other fall race where he wasn’t in the 4 in the NextGen era, he’s finished 22nd and 23rd. Add on to that the issues at home with Reddick’s young child (our thoughts are with the family) and the lawsuit surrounding his team, and maybe some uncertainty in his future ride. They are distractions that will likely have him off his game this week.
Chastain, on the other hand, doesn’t have an off switch. He goes hard, even when he’s racing the championship contenders like in 2023. Chastain has a 9.4 average finish at Phoenix in the NextGen era, compared to Reddick’s 12.4. Chastain has gotten the better of the matchup in five of the seven races here. Plus, you get him at plus money. Sign me up!
Hamlin + Briscoe + Byron + Blaney Parlay
Top 10 (+208)
Top 5 (+996)
Some books, like ESPN Bet, will allow you to parlay top 5s or top 10s. We’re going to take advantage of that this week and do both. As I said, this seems like an elite group of four. There isn’t an outlier from a 23XI or Trackhouse like we’ve seen the last few years. It’s two Gibbs cars and two Hendrick Cars. I think you’ll be able to throw a blanket over them all day long, and I think they’ll finish 1-2-3-4.
Since coming to Phoenix in 2020, the top five parlay would have hit in both 20 and 21. In 23 three of them finished top four, while Bell blew a brake rotor and was unable to finish. Last year, they finished 1-2-3-6. Even the top five parlay allows for a Blaney or Bell to sneak in there. This is an elite group, and I expect elite racing. This bet is fun because it gives us a great race if they are all up there, and you don’t have to worry about picking the right one. Just bet on a solid race from all four!
Denny Hamlin to Win the Race (+350)
It’s the storybook winner, and that’s where my money is going. I’m heavily invested in Briscoe to win this championship, and I think he’s capable and at the number worth betting if you don’t already hold futures on him. But it’s Denny Hamlin’s time. The Hall of Fame resume is ready; he’s already a first ballot guy. But add a championship to it, and it’s cemented in the history books as one of the best careers ever. We saw a different Hamlin when he won at Las Vegas. He was emotional, he was reflective. He’s focused, he’s ready. And he’s had a jump start on preparing. I don’t think he’ll be denied, and he etches his name on the Bill France Cup.
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