NASCAR has reached its penultimate race of the season! They’ll head to a track that’s been here since the start to determine the final two drivers to join Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe in Phoenix to race for a championship. The “Paperclip”, the .526-Mile Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia, will host beating and banging and good ole short track racing on Sunday. Let’s jump in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville.
Two spots are locked up for next week’s NASCAR Championship Race at Phoenix. Denny Hamlin via his win at Las Vegas, and Chase Briscoe via his win at Talladega. They can sit back, relax, and enjoy a nice Sunday drive in Henry County on Sunday. Behind them in the points, utter chaos!
Hamlin and Briscoe’s teammate, Christopher Bell, enters the race third in points. He’s +37 to the cut line, and just +1 above Kyle Larson, who checks in at +36 to the cut line. Barring a catastrophe for either of these drivers on Sunday, they should easily make their way into the championship race IF a playoff driver from below the line doesn’t win. If one of those four drivers wins, it’ll likely come down to who has the better points day between Bell and Larson.
For the four below the cut line, Byron (-36), Logano (-38), and Blaney (-47) could technically point their way in. It would take a very bad day for either or both of Bell and Larson, and those in front of them. The easiest path for those three, and the only path for Chase Elliott (-62), is to win the race. Luckily enough, all four have won at Martinsville before.
Odds to Win Xfinity 500
Ryan Blaney +350
Denny Hamlin +600
Christopher Bell +600
Kyle Larson +600
Chase Elliott +650
William Byron +750
Joey Logano +800
Chase Briscoe +1900
Bubba Wallace +3300
Josh Berry +3500
Ross Chastain +4000
Alex Bowman +4500
Ty Gibbs +5000
Brad Keselowski +6000
Tyler Reddick +6500
Ryan Preece +6500
Austin Cindric +8000
Carson Hocevar +8000
Kyle Busch +8000
Chris Buescher +8000
Shane Van Gisbergen +17500
Austin Dillon +22500
Todd Gilliland +30000
Noah Gragson +30000
AJ Allmendinger +30000
Daniel Suarez +30000
Erik Jones +40000
Zane Smith +40000
Michael McDowell +40000
Casey Mears +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +50000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Justin Haley +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
NASCAR Picks: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Odds and Best Bets
Chase Briscoe Top 10 Finish (-120)
Don’t wait to bet on this one. Not many books are hanging a number this low, but Hard Rock is. If you have it, you are in luck! If you don’t, I also like parlaying Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe to finish in the top 10, which you can get around -109. Briscoe has been a man on fire in the latter part of the season, and especially the playoffs.
According to NASCAR Insights, Chase Briscoe sits fifth in “laps run inside of the top five” in the NextGen era. That’s six races with Stewart-Haas Racing, and one with Joe Gibbs Racing. He struggled at the beginning of the year getting accustomed to the Gibbs ride, but still managed a ninth-place finish. Briscoe has finished in the top 10 in six of his seven NextGen starts. The one exception was the second-to-last race ever for Stewart-Haas Racing. Briscoe comes into this one sweat-free and should do what he always does here. Briscoe at 19/1 odds to win is an absolute steal as well.
Laps run in the top five at Martinsville with the NextGen car:
Note, not only do the Round of 8 drivers all rank in the top nine, they have also won every Martinsville race with the NextGen car (seven races) pic.twitter.com/SHZGUFNGSA
— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) October 23, 2025
Ryan Preece Top 10 (+300)
Martinsville’s fall race tends to lean a little chalky. I’d expect most of the playoff drivers to be top 10, leaving few spots for non-playoff drivers. One of the non-playoff drivers I love this week to get into the top 10. Preece came up in the modified ranks racing at tracks like Martinsville.
Preece finished seventh here in the spring in his first start at the track for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing. It was his second top 10 at the track in the last three races. Preece has been on a roll lately, finishing in the top 15 in nine of the last 12 races. Now he heads to his best track type. At 3/1, this bet offers great value.
Chase Elliott to Win (+650)
Chase Elliott has to win this race. There is no point situation that can fall his way. They enter this one knowing it’s a do-or-die. Luckily, Martinsville is one of, if not the best track for this team. Back to that stat from NASCAR Insights, “laps run inside of the top five.” Chase Elliott is the easy leader with 1,977 laps in the top five over seven NextGen races.
Elliott has three top-five finishes in a row at Martinsville. In this very race last year, he led 129 laps on the day. When he was in a must-win situation in 2020, Elliott went out and dominated the day, locking himself into the championship race. He’d go on to claim his first NASCAR Cup Series title the very next week. Can he repeat that five years later? I think he’s got a very good shot, and of the favorites. He’s my best bet.
