Just three races remain in the NASCAR Cup Series season. One of the biggest obstacles for the remaining seven drivers not already locked into Phoenix is Talladega. The 2.660-mile oval is known for its fast racing and unpredictable wrecks. “The Big One” will happen at least once, sometimes multiple times. Sometimes, claiming 10 or 20 cars all in one swoop. Stay out of trouble, but get points, and finish well. Easy enough, right? Oh yeah, the 32 non-playoff cars are out there too. Let’s dive in and look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for Talladega Superspeedway.
Denny Hamlin is the one driver who has already locked himself into the championship race. The future Hall-of-Famer picked up his 60th career Cup Series win at Las Vegas and punched his ticket to race for the championship. A championship win would be his first, and would check the last big box on Hamlin’s Hall-of-Fame Resume. No other driver is safe on points, or too far back for what Talladega has to offer. Here’s how they stand entering the Yella Wood 500. Kyle Larson is +35 above the cut line. Christopher Bell is +20. Chase Briscoe joins them above the cut at +15. William Byron is -15 below the line. Chase Elliott -23. Joey Logano -24, and Ryan Blaney -31.
These are fun races to bet on; every longshot has a chance to win or get swept up in the big one. Bet with extra caution this week, and most importantly, have fun while you do it!
Odds to Win the Yella Wood 500
Ryan Blaney +1100
Joey Logano +1100
William Byron +1100
Chase Elliott +1200
Austin Cindric +1400
Kyle Larson +1500
Brad Keselowski +1600
Kyle Busch +1700
Denny Hamlin +1900
Alex Bowman +2000
Chase Briscoe +2200
Ryan Preece +2200
Chris Buescher +2200
Bubba Wallace +2200
Christopher Bell +2200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2200
Tyler Reddick +2500
Justin Haley +2700
Todd Gilliland +2700
Ross Chastain +2700
Carson Hocevar +2700
Daniel Suarez +2700
Michael McDowell +3300
Josh Berry +3500
Ty Gibbs +3500
Noah Gragson +4000
Erik Jones +4000
Austin Dillon +4000
Zane Smith +5000
John Hunter Nemechek +6000
AJ Allmendinger +6000
Ty Dillon +6000
Cole Custer +6000
Shane van Gisbergen +6000
Cody Ware +8000
Austin Hill +8000
Anthony Alfredo +8000
Riley Herbst +10000
Casey Mears +10000
BJ McLeod +10000
NASCAR Picks: Yella Wood 500 at Talladega Odds and Best Bets
William Byron Over Kyle Larson (-120)
I don’t typically go crazy on head-to-heads on drafting tracks because of the wreck factors, but I love this one. In 52 career starts on drafting tracks in the Cup Series, Kyle Larson has only four career top-five finishes. I will give him credit that two of those have come this season, and three of them have come at Talladega. However, I don’t think he’s suddenly gotten good at drafting track racing; he’s just been lucky. Fading Larson at drafting tracks has made us buckets of money over the years, and I’m not ready to give up after a few good finishes. Nine of Larson’s 21 starts at this track have resulted in finishes of 24th or worse.
His opponent in this matchup is one of the best drafting track racers in the Series. He’s struggled a little this year, but has won the last two Daytona 500s, has finished top three in three of the last four at Daytona and Talladega, and top eight in eight of the last 10 at the two tracks. That makes this matchup even sweeter. Byron has finished better than Larson in seven of the last 10 races at these tracks. Byron is much more consistent at finishing well, and Larson just can’t seem to catch a break most of the time, and he’s due to catch a bad finish. To speak to Byron’s consistency, he has never finished outside of the top 15 in seven next-gen races here. He’s been top 10 in five straight and top three the last two times at the track.
Erik Jones Top 10 (+225)
There’s nobody I’m more excited to bet on this week than Erik Jones. The driver of the #43 car has been great at Talladega. In the NextGen era, he’s finished inside the top six in four of the seven races. The other three races, he’s been caught up in it, but that’s just part of superspeedway racing. In Jones’s last 14 starts here, eight times he’s finished inside the top 10. On this week’s NASCAR Gambling Podcast, I rode the Erik Jones car lift bet. Up to and including him to win at 40-1.
Winning Car Number Under 19.5 (-110)
This is the perfect bet for anyone who wants some action on the race but doesn’t want to go crazy. This bet will almost certainly give you someone with a chance to cash it at the end of the day. Think about the end of these Talladega races, and all the drivers who have a shot to win in the final two laps. You’ll be pulling for everyone under 19.5. And it’s a very nice group of drivers you get in that number range.
Ross Chastain is a former Talladega winner. Austin Cindric won here in the spring. Austin Dillon is a multi-time superspeedway winner. Noah Gragson is included, and in case Kyle Larson figures it out, you get him. Brad Keselowski has won here six times. Justin Haley has a Daytona win, and Kyle Busch is a former Dega winner. Chase Elliott has won here. If things get crazy, maybe Ty Dillon is in the mix.
Denny Hamlin is an all-time superspeedway driver, and Ryan Blaney has won the fall race here twice. AJ Allmendinger has won here in Xfinity, and Chris Buescher is a superspeedway winner. Chase Briscoe has been performing well week in and week out. That’s a hell of a group to get at -110. Bet this, and enjoy the chaos.
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