Fresh off a very exciting UFC 320, the UFC octagon is on the move again this week, setting up shop in the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for a Brazilian-heavy UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot (aka UFC Rio). Here are your UFC Rio predictions & best bets to make Saturday profitable.
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UFC Rio Predictions & Best Bets
Charles Oliveira (-103) vs Mateusz Gamrot
I’m bummed that Charles Oliveira is no longer a dog for his lightweight fight against Mateusz Gamrot, but I’m still picking him to win. While the former UFC Lightweight Champion is past his prime, he’s still good enough to win this fight.
Because it’s in Brazil! And Oliveira has never lost a fight on home soil, including six in the UFC. But, in actuality, I don’t like Gamrot taking this five-round fight on short notice. Plus, Oliveira is more dangerous than the Polish fighter on the feet and on the ground.
Montel Jackson (-263) vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Another former Brazilian UFC champion is in the co-main event, as well, with former flyweight king Deiveson Figueiredo facing Montel Jackson in a bantamweight fight. Figueiredo is another guy past his prime, but he has looked solid up a weight class at 135 pounds.
However, Jackson is just way too big for him (he used to fight at 155 pounds), and is five inches taller and has a seven-inch reach advantage. The American is also five years younger. I’ll take the younger, fresher, bigger fighter in pretty much any mathcup, this one included.
Joel Alvarez (-549) vs Vicente Luque
Hey, another past his prime Brazilian appears in our third fight from the top – Vicente Luque. And, same as in the co-main event, I’m going with the younger, bigger fighter – Joel Alvarez.
Alvarez will be moving up from lightweight for this welterweight fight, and he’ll still be four inches taller than Luque. Luque has taken too much damage over his career to last with a dangerous striker and grappler like Alvarez, who has finished his last three opponents.
Ricardo Ramos (-175) vs Kaan Ofli
The UFC is really not doing Kaan Ofli any favors with the matchmaking, as the 0-2 UFC fighter from Turkey is no match for Brazilian Ricardo Ramos. Ramos is bigger (a six-inch reach advantage!) and younger than Ofli.
But, most importantly, Ramos is a lightning-fast, dangerous striker as well as a strong grappler and submission wiz.
Thomas Peterson (+260) vs Vitor Petrino
I owe you at least one dog, and here’s a big one – figuratively and literally – heavyweight Thomas Peterson, who we’re getting for over 2.5 times our money when he wins (and he’s going to win).
I’m always willing to go in on a live dog at heavyweight, because anything can happen in a fight with that much mass and power being thrown around. I think Peterson is way better than Vitor Petrino on the ground, plus he can throw down on the feet.
Check out the MMA Gambling Podcast if you’d like even more UFC Rio picks. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
