The 2025 NFL season is through five weeks, with many surprising results along the way. No team remains undefeated at this stage of the season, with both the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles becoming the last to lose their 100% records on Sunday, October 5.
Of course, many are aware that the league is largely based on quarterback play. This position is key for every team and one that receives the most scrutiny. Whether it’s the media being analytical about how the team is performing and if they will make the Super Bowl, or if it’s people who bet on the league and football throughout the year, the quarterback is a hugely influential figure.
Bettors will often make their picks when using NFL betting sites based on how well a specific QB is performing. They’ll make bets based on key statistics, such as passing touchdowns, their efficiency in making completions, or their overall play and leadership qualities. Once they’ve decided on how comfortable they feel with the QB, they will then use their favored betting sites where they can obtain potential bonuses and enjoy positive wagering sessions right through to the Super Bowl.
Still, has the 2025 NFL season been different in terms of how quarterbacks have performed and how everyone, from bettors to media analysts, should be evaluating them? Indeed, results on the field are perhaps suggesting that there may be some trends to keep an eye on…
Still A Passing Game?
The league is notoriously known for its passing game. Although it once started out as a run-dominant sport, the NFL evolved into a pass-first game in the early 2000s, with quarterbacks getting stronger arms. They would have the power to be able to throw the ball downfield, allowing them to gain more yardage on plays and create additional offensive threats.
Players like Tom Brady and Drew Brees can often be credited with helping to transform the league into a passing-oriented one; for instance, ‘TB12’ is the all-time leader in passing yards with 89,214 yards.
However, there has been a tendency in the league this season to use the rush more often. According to figures collected by NFELO, the Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) metric they use appears to indicate a decline in the number of passes made this season compared to what their models suggest should have been expected.
The New York Jets have the biggest differential through four weeks (data not collected for Week 5 as of writing), with their score at -10.0%. This suggests that Justin Fields is opting to keep the ball on the ground more often than was expected. However, some may argue it’s why they are 0-5 to start the season (the only team without a win).
On the flip side, teams like the Los Angeles Chargers (+8.8%) and Kansas City Chiefs (+7.3%) are above their PROE rate. It’s unsurprising, as both teams have quarterbacks who can make passing plays in Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. However, things aren’t necessarily working out for them. Herbert has four interceptions this season, whereas Mahomes has two. Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, resulting in records of 3-2 and 2-3, respectively, in the AFC West.
Quarterback Changes
The first few weeks of an NFL season can create some early trends, but it can also be too early to tell. Indeed, there have already been some teams that have decided to bench their initial starters and replace them.
Notably, the New York Giants replaced Russell Wilson with Jaxson Dart in Week 4. The rookie won his first game as a starter (Los Angeles Chargers) by completing 13 of 20 pass attempts, but he handed the ball off to a running back 32 times (he also kept it for 10 runs).
In Week 5, during the defeat to the New Orleans Saints, he had two interceptions while completing just 26 of 40 pass attempts. The run game was used less, as he kept the ball on the ground for 30 plays (including seven of his own) and had a fumble when he wasn’t touched. He clearly threw for more passes against the Saints, but didn’t have anywhere near the same type of success.
Injuries have already decimated many teams at the quarterback position, which will likely impact the trends being observed so far this season. The Cincinnati Bengals lost Joe Burrow early and will be without him for a few months due to a Grade 3 turf toe injury that required surgery. The Baltimore Ravens have had to deal with being without Lamar Jackson for a period of time due to a hamstring injury.
What to expect?
Across the remainder of the NFL 2025 season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the passing game open up a little more as teams become even more desperate to reach the Super Bowl.
Offenses will find there is a time when they will need to go for it more often than not, while fans will demand big plays from their QBs as long as they are in contention to compete at Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, California, on February 8, 2026.
