I took it on the chin last weekend with my college football picks, going 0-2. Bye-bye black, hello red. But the season is still young – there’s still plenty of time to get back into the black and make ourselves a nice profit. And we’re starting that process this weekend. For my college football predictions and best bets for Week 5, we’re off to Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and Nashville, Tennessee. Let’s go!
College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 5
#16 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Start Time: Noon EST
We’ll kick off our picks this week in Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Winston-Salem for some ACC action. The visiting Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have come out of the gates with guns blazing this season, going 4-0, including winning their only conference game thus far. And the conference win was a big one, a home win against #12 Clemson.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons, meanwhile, beat up their two overmatched foes to kick off the season before dropping their conference opener last weekend at home against North Carolina State. The Yellow Jackets are the superior team in this matchup, even with the game being on the road. However (I always have a ‘however’ loaded and ready to go), the gap between these two teams isn’t as wide as the spread suggests.
After crunching the advanced stats and adding in the Demon Deacons’ home field advantage (worth 3.28 points per game, historically), I’ve come up with the line of Georgia Tech -7.5, which makes the value on the Wake Forest side of the spread.
Best Bet: Wake Forest +13.5 (-105)
Utah State Aggies vs #18 Vanderbilt Commodores
Start Time: 12:45 PM EST
I faded the Vanderbilt Commodores on the spread in Week 4, and they burned me. So I surely learned my lesson, right? Wrong.
It’s not that the Commodores aren’t a good football team – they’ve earned their #18 ranking honestly by winning all four games on their slate this season, including a 24-point smoking of #11 South Carolina two weeks ago. It’s just that Vanderbilt seems to be overvalued on the spread again this weekend, so I’m going back to that well once more. Hopefully, this time it won’t be dry.
The visitors to FirstBank Stadium tomorrow, the Utah State Aggies, are a solid football team in their own right, carrying a 3-1 record into the matchup, with their lone loss a road battle at #19 Texas A&M.
But it all comes down to my numbers, which, to be fair, are still being tweaked as we’re still in the early days of the season. After doing the requisite crunching, my spread is Vanderbilt -12. That would make the visitors quite a value play on the spread we’re getting at the books.
Best Bet: Utah State +22.5 (-105)
College Football Overall Record: 2-3 (40%)
Profit (based on $100/bet): -($110.71)
Return on Investment: -22%
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