After a week off, the UFC is back in action this weekend, heading down under to Perth, Australia, for an Australian (and New Zealand) heavy fight card – UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes (aka UFC Perth). Here are your UFC Perth predictions & best bets to make Saturday profitable.
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UFC Perth Predictions & Best Bets
Carlos Ulberg (-235) vs Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes still being in the UFC in 2025, let alone headlining a UFC fight card, wasn’t on my bingo card. But after losing four straight fights – three of them via knockout – the former UFC title challenger has knocked out three opponents.
But the feel-good comeback story ends on Saturday. Carlos Ulberg is too good and technical a striker for Reyes to hang with. And once your chin is gone, it’s gone, so I don’t expect Reyes’s to hold up against a striker like Ulberg.
Jimmy Crute (-170) vs Ivan Erslan
Either of these guys co-headlining a card is even more improbable than Reyes. But at least Jimmy Crute is an Aussie, and at least he has won a fight in the UFC octagon, neither of which Ivan Erslan can claim.
Erslan has not shown that he belongs at this level, losing both of his UFC fights. Crute is bigger, younger, and better everywhere, and is a dangerous finisher both on the feet and the mat.
Jack Jenkins (-260) vs Ramon Taveras
Speaking of being dangerous everywhere, that also is an apt description of Crute’s compatriot, Jack Jenkins. In Jenkins’ 13 pro wins, he’s knocked out six opponents and submitted another three.
While opponent Ramon Taveras is a solid fighter, he’s not a better striker, wrestler, or grappler than Jenkins. That means he won’t be beating Jenkins on Saturday.
Louie Sutherland (+105) vs Justin Tafa
Ok, time for an underdog. And time to fade an Aussie. I like newcomer Louie Sutherland to beat Justin Tafa in their main card heavyweight battle.
While Sutherland hasn’t faced anyone near the level of Tafa on the regional scene, I still think the Scot has what it takes to win this fight. He’s a heavy hitter, is faster than Tafa, and has some grappling and ground and pound, which would be his safest path to victory, rather than standing and trading with ‘Bad Man’ for extended periods.
Colby Thicknesse (+130) vs Josias Musasa
And just like that, I’m back in on an Australian fighter, Colby Thicknesse. If my predictions come to pass on Saturday, the crowd at the RAC Arena in Perth will be going home happy, with most of their ‘hometown’ fighters being victorious.
I like ‘Slickness’ Thicknesse to dominate Josias Musasa on the ground, as Musasa is not good at that jiu-jitsu thing that comes in handy in MMA fights. Thicknesse has the takedowns and a steel chin to help him win this fight.
Check out the MMA Gambling Podcast if you’d like even more UFC Perth picks. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
