Week 4 of the NFL is here! It kicks off Thursday evening with an NFC West divisional battle between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. Sunday is headlined by the Ravens at Chiefs, and Monday Night gives us an overlapping double header. Let’s set our confidence levels for these Week 4 NFL picks!
Last week was a tough one to pick, and many close games decided at the last second proved that. We still got seven of the top nine right for a pretty solid week. Week 4 sets up to be just about as tough. The top of the board features some games with bigger spreads and teams that feel like they are in a smash spot. As you get farther into the picks, there are a lot of toss-up spots that’ll be key in deciding how well we do this week.
Week 4 NFL Confidence Picks
High Confidence Picks
1. Bills Over Saints
2. Lions Over Browns
3. Packers Over Cowboys
4. Broncos Over Bengals
5. Commanders Over Falcons
Buffalo is a 16.5-point favorite over the Saints this week. That’s a massive spread, and betting either side can be up for debate. It’s not up for debate that the Bills should sleepwalk through this game. It’s the worst team in the league against one of the best. Lock it in and move on.
The Lions are coming off a big win on Monday night, but after seeing what the Browns did to their divisional foe, the Green Bay Packers, last week. Dan Campbell will personally bite kneecaps off if the Lions let that happen. I don’t see Cleveland pulling that off back-to-back weeks.
Speaking of losing to the Browns last week. Enter the Green Bay Packers. We see teams fall asleep at the wheel sometimes, but they are awake now. The Packers won’t let that happen back-to-back weeks. Especially in the Micah Parsons revenge game, against a beat-up Cowboys team. Pack roll in this one.
The Bengals got exposed big time last week in a drubbing by the Minnesota Vikings. When a team has time to game plan for Jake Browning, he just isn’t going to look like he did in relief for Joe Burrow. Denver is the better team. With a huge home-field advantage on Monday night, I think they’ll come out on top pretty easily.
The first four were easy; pick five is where things get much tougher. However, this is just a take-the-better-team spot. Washington’s season hasn’t been flawless, but they’ve gotten the job done. Wins against a tough division opponent and an easy victory with a backup quarterback over Vegas. Their other game was a close one with a very good Packer team. The Falcons got blown out by Carolina, of all teams. Don’t overthink this one.
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Confident Picks
6. Vikings Over Steelers
7. Chargers Over Giants
8. Seahawks Over Cardinals
9. Eagles Over Buccaneers
10. Texans Over Titans
Don’t forget this Vikings-Steelers game is an early overseas game. It’s another one where one team is simply just better than the other. Pittsburgh lost pretty convincingly to Seattle, hardly beat the Patriots in a game they should have lost, and the same story against the Jets. Minnesota is a good team. They proved it last year, and having a solid veteran at quarterback like Carson Wentz makes me like them more than with McCarthy. I loved this team with Wentz last week, and I’m sticking to that train.
The Chargers-Giants is a bigger spread game, with Los Angeles favored by 7.5 in some places. I’ll probably take the Giants on the spread because I don’t think this is a bad team, and they get the rookie quarterback bump, finally starting Jaxson Dart. Be careful on this one, they could be a live dog at home. But to win outright, against said rookie for Jim Harbaugh and company, seven feels like the right spot.
If your pool allows the Thursday Night Football game, this is a great place to slip in the Seattle Seahawks. I’ve been a Cardinals backer, but this defense on a short week, plus the continued solid play of Sam Darnold, has me liking this Seattle team to grab the win Thursday night.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFL. They proved it in the Super Bowl, and they continue to prove it every week. Tamara Bay is a tough matchup, but it’s hard to pick against Philly to win outright any week against any opponent. Keep plugging them in until they stop being the best team.
This is another game I’m a little worried about a possible upset. Against my better judgment, I’ll probably take the Titans with the points in this one. But as bad as the Texans have been, this is still one of the worst teams in the NFL. CAM Ward hasn’t shown it yet, and I believe Brian Callahan is a fraud. Give me Houston, just not too high!
Toss-Ups
11. Rams Over Colts
12. Patriots Over Panthers
13. Ravens Over Chiefs
14. Raiders Over Bears
15. Jaguars Over 49ers
16. Jets Over Dolphins
Jumble these six up in the blender and pick whatever side you like better. Daniel Jones and the Colts have been on a stellar run, but I think Sean McVay can at least end the win streak in Week 4.
The Patriots aren’t good, and which version of the Panthers do we get this week? Carolina hasn’t been nearly as good on the road, and the Patriots have shown a few signs of being a decent team. Give me the home team in this one.
The Chiefs were the #2 team in last week’s chart in a smash spot, now I’m sending them to 1-3. They are a good team who will be fine in the long run, but a pissed off Baltimore Ravens team that’s just more talented and was caught looking forward to this game is the side I want.
The Raiders over the Bears comes down to home-field advantage, coaching, and quarterback play. I think Las Vegas has at least a slight edge in all three. It’s still a toss-up, but give me Da Raiders.
Another week of me being on the Jaguars. I’m calling for the upset in this one. Brock Purdy might be back, but my goodness, is this 49ers team beat up. Give me a statement game, Brian Thomas, please?
Jets vs Dolphins. The Monday night game everyone can’t wait for! Well, maybe we can. Flip a coin. Which version of either team do we get? Who knows. I want Justin Fields, and I still think Miami is a bad team. Go Jets.
