In last week’s Survivor Picks the Cardinals let us down againts Mac Jones and the 49ers. However, the Bucs helped us out. Hopefully, you were able to advance in your NFL survivor pools. This week has a lot of interesting matchups, and many of the spreads are such a toss-up. However, there’s still value to be found, and we’re ready to crush our NFL Survivor Picks for Week 4 while we continue our journey to winning.
NFL Survivor Picks Week 4
Look Around the League Week 4 (All Times ET)
Thursday 8:15 PM
Seahawks (-1.5) at Cardinals
Sunday 9:30 AM
Vikings (-2.5) vs. Steelers (Dublin)
Sunday 1:00 PM
Commanders (-1.5) @ Falcons
Saints @ Bills (-15.5)
Browns @ Lions (-10)
Panthers @ Patriots (-5.5)
Chargers (-6) @ Giants
Eagles (-3.5) @ Bucs
Titans @ Texans (-7)
Sunday 4:05 PM
Colts @ Rams (-3.5)
Jaguars @ 49ers (-3.5)
Sunday 4:25 PM
Ravens (-2.5) @ Chiefs
Bears @ Raiders (-1.5)
Sunday 8:20 PM
Packers (-7) @ Cowboys
Monday 7:15 PM and 8:15 PM
Jets @ Dolphins (-3)
Bengals @ Broncos (-7.5)
The Lock: Buffalo Bills
Maybe you’ve already used the Bills for your NFL Survivor Picks. However, if not, Week 4’s NFL Survivor pick is the perfect time to throw them in. The Bills are 3-0 and go against the 0-3 Saints. To top off having a good matchup against a struggling team, it’s in Buffalo.
Last week, the Seahawks were one of the top-picked teams because they were going against the Saints. They rewarded those picking them by winning 44-13. They didn’t need to do much, with Sam Darnold throwing for 218 yards and two touchdowns, and their top rusher having less than 40 rushing yards.
Now they face off against Josh Allen and the Bills, who have a little extra rest after playing on Thursday night. Allen threw for three touchdowns while James Cook added 108 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. These teams are on completely different levels. I expect the Bills to be one of the most picked teams this week. Don’t worry, it feels chalky, but they’ll reward you. There is absolutely no way they lose this game.
Another Confident Pick: Lions
I know the Browns are coming off a big win against the Packers in Cleveland. The Browns have been very good at stopping the run. In fact, they held Josh Jacobs to just 30 yards on 16 carries. Now they’ll face off against the Lions, whose strength is running the ball, as evidenced by their game against the Ravens.
While the Lions are on a shorter rest coming off a big Monday night win over the Ravens, I don’t think it’ll affect them. Dan Campbell has this team laser-focused, especially after their opening loss. While the Lions ran for over 200 yards against the Ravens, they can do it in the air, too. If the Browns are able to bottle up the creative offense on the ground, I have more faith in Goff to put on an air clinic than I do Jordan Love.
On top of that, this game will be in the comfort of Detroit’s home stadium. In the temperature-controlled dome, the Lions tend to thrive. They’re also 6-1 against the spread against the AFC in the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Browns are 2-12-1 in the last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Lions are an easy pick.
An Underdog Pick: Jaguars
For an underdog pick that likely nobody else in your Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks league is going to have is the Jacksonville Jaguars. They face off against the 49ers, who will be starting Mac Jones for the third straight game. At some point, you have to expect the Mac Jones magic to dissipate. This seems like the perfect spot for it.
The Jaguars are coming off a 17-10 win against the Texans in a big conference spot for them. They’re now 2-1 on the season, and head coach Liam Coen is looking to continue the success. Luckily for him, there are some stats on his side to help. The Jaguars are 7-3 after a straight-up conference win. They’re also 8-2 on a grass field like the 49ers have.
The 49ers squeaked by the Cardinals 16-15, extending their season to 3-0. Brock Purdy continues to miss time. George Kittle is on the IR. Jauan Jennings is banged up and questionable, and so is Ricky Pearsall. CMC continues to stay healthy. My guess is that some witch doctor is injuring the other guys to ensure he stays healthy.
The 49ers are 0-10 ATS against teams that are coming off a straight-up win. With the spread only being 3.5 points, not covering means they will be close to losing the game. They’re also 0-2 ATS when the total is 45 or more. This game’s total is sitting at 47.5 right now.
I think the Jaguars will find ways to keep scoring points, and the 49ers will have trouble keeping up. The loss of Nick Bosa ends up hurting the 49ers too much. They drop this game as they have their eyes looking ahead to the LA Rams.
