Thirty-nine NCAA FBS teams still have a shot at a perfect season going into Week 4. Unfortunately, my picks have already lost once (2-1 on the year), so my dreams of perfection will have to wait until next year. However, that doesn’t mean we won’t continue to win money this season. For my college football predictions and best bets for Week 4, we’re off to Bloomington, Indiana, and Nashville, Tennessee. Let’s go!
College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 4
#9 Illinois Fighting Illini vs #19 Indiana Hoosiers
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST
Perhaps the most intriguing matchup in Week 4 is this Big Ten Conference battle between the #9 Illinois Fighting Illini and the #19 Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Both teams are among the ranks of the undefeated I mentioned earlier, but that won’t be the case at the final whistle tomorrow night.
The Hoosiers have been absolutely crushing teams, winning by 73 and 47 points, respectively, over the past two weeks, albeit against weak competition. However, the Illini have faced even weaker competition, but crushed it as well. So this will be both teams’ first true test of the season, as well as their first conference game.
And while I think the home team Hoosiers might scrape out a win, I’m playing the Illini. After crunching the numbers and adding in the home field advantage, my line is Indiana -1, so Illinois on the spread is the play.
Best Bet: Illinois +6.5 (-105)
Georgia State Panthers vs #20 Vanderbilt Commodores
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST
I’m doing well in the early going this season playing the dogs, and I’m going with another one as the Sun Belt’s Georgia State Panthers visit the SEC’s Vanderbilt Commodores at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. Am I really picking the 1-2 Panthers to beat the undefeated Commodores at home?! No, let’s not be ridiculous.
However, the spread for this game is too wide by my calculations, so that’s where the money is going. An impressive 31-7 win at the #11-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks last week has propelled Vanderbilt into the national rankings. However, the team was projected right around five wins for this season, so they’re overachieving at this point.
And the spread for their game tomorrow reflects that. Are the Georgia State Panthers a good football team? Once again, let’s not be ridiculous. They’ve won one game, against a non-major team (Murray State), and got blasted by Memphis and Ole Miss in their other two games. Plus, they are only projected for 3.5 wins for the season.
After taking all the advanced stats into account, then adding in the Commodores’ home field advantage, my line for tomorrow is Vanderbilt -20. That leaves plenty of value and wiggle room on Georgia State’s side of the spread.
Best Bet: Georgia State +27.5 (-102)
College Football Overall Record: 2-1 (67%)
Profit (based on $100/bet): $89.29
Return on Investment: 30%
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