The NFL season feels like it’s flying by! Week 3 is already upon us, and it’s time to do a confidence check on how we are feeling for each team and their Week 3 matchups. Action kicks off Thursday night with the biggest spread of the weekend as the Buffalo Bills host the struggling Miami Dolphins. It ends Monday night with an electric game between two Super Bowl hopefuls as the Baltimore Ravens host the Detroit Lions. I’ll rank all 16 games in this article for my Week 3 NFL Confidence pool picks.
Last week was a great week for this article, as seven of our top eight picks all came through with victories. The Seattle Seahawks’ upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers was the only one that got us. Week 3 might be one of the hardest weeks to pick all season. There are a lot of good matchups, injuries, and still some unknowns to navigate. We’ll try to run it back this week, and it all starts on Thursday Night Football. I know everyone’s pool is different, so if you can play this game, great! Jump on it. If not, your #1 starts at #2.
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Week 3 NFL Confidence Picks
High Confidence Picks
- Bills Over Dolphins
- Chiefs Over Giants
- Packers Over Browns
- Colts Over Titans
- Buccaneers Over Jets
Bills Over Dolphins is simply the easiest pick on the weekend. Buffalo is a 12.5-point favorite in this one. They’ve won six in a row over the Dolphins and 13 of their last 14 matchups. Sometimes one team just owns another. Buffalo knows the feeling from the Tom Brady days. Buffalo has looked good through two games, and Miami just might get its Coach fired Thursday night.
The Kansas City Chiefs are next up. These first two are just softballs, but they are the easy ones. It gets harder from here. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid aren’t starting 0-3, especially not to Russell Wilson and Brian Dabol. The Giants also just gave it everything they had in a devastating divisional loss. This could quickly become a blowout.
Next, we’ll lean on Jordan Love, Micah Parsons, and a Green Packers team that has been lights out through the first two weeks with easy wins over playoff teams, the Lions and Commanders. Flacco is serviceable, but the Browns don’t have enough firepower for the Packers.
Well, the easy picks are out of the way. After the top three, it became much more difficult for Week 3. Putting faith in Daniel Jones is a scary thing, ask Giants fans. But, through two weeks, he’s been so electric, the team hasn’t even punted the ball a single time. Tennessee has looked better than last year (low bar), but overall hasn’t been a very impressive team. Let’s ride the hot hand against a bad team.
This Buccaneers-Jets game got a little easier for the Buccaneers when Justin Fields was ruled out due to a concussion. Tyrod Taylor is a good quarterback, and this team looked stellar in Week 1. However, that may have been more of a reflection of the Steelers. Tampa is a solid team that takes care of business when they should.
Confident Picks
6. Seahawks Over Saints
7. Falcons Over Panthers
8. Vikings Over Bengals
9. Jaguars Over Texans
10. Cardinals Over 49ers
Speaking of quarterbacks that are hard to trust, enter Sam Darnold. He made us pay last week against an always well-coached Steelers team. This week, he gets the easiest team in the league to play against. Seattle’s defense has also been outstanding and should have a heyday against Spencer Rattler.
Next up on the fade list, the Carolina Panthers. Through two games, they are the Panthers of old. They got blown out by the Jaguars in Week 1 and by the Cardinals last week until a late backdoor cover of the spread. The Falcons kept it close with Tampa Bay before dismantling the Vikings in prime time.
Speaking of the Vikings, I think they are a better team without de facto rookie JJ McCarthy. This one is a battle of backups, and I trust Carson Wentz a lot more than Jake Browning. The Bengals already won with Browning in the big comeback, so it’s a great time for him to settle into a loss. Kevin O’Connell has already proven that with a decent system quarterback who knows what they are doing, he can win 14 games. Insert Carson Wentz.
I’ve been on the Jaguars since the offseason, they are 2-0, so I’m not backing down now. Houston is 0-2, and unlike the Chiefs, I can easily see this team being 0-3. Their offensive line is a nightmare, and they just aren’t clicking yet. Division game, give the home team the edge with the better record, I’ll take it.
Cardinals over 49ers is the game I’m calling my shot on. Brock Purdy may be back, but you are either getting an injured Brock Purdy or Mac Jones. Backups are fine, and Jones is a good one, but they are going to lose some games. Arizona is a hot starting team, and they are already 2-0, granted, those wins were over two bad teams. This is their week to pull a small upset, and I’m riding Kyler Murray and company.
Toss-Ups
11. Cowboys Over Bears
12. Patriots Over Steelers
13. Commanders Over Raiders
14. Eagles Over Rams
15. Chargers Over Broncos
16. Ravens Over Lions
The toss-up games. The ones that could truly go either way. I like the Cowboys going to Soldier Field here. The biggest worry is the letdown spot after the emotional Giants win, but I’m still out on the Bears.
The Steelers appeared to be frauds last week, so I’m going against them until I see otherwise. Their defense is atrocious, and the Patriots just might be a decent team. Give me the slight underdog home team.
It could be Jayden Daniels, it could be Marcus Mariota; either way, I’m going with the Commanders in this one. They’ve looked good in both games and just have the better roster.
Eagles over Rams, the Rams could be a live dog in this one. But I don’t know how you pick against the Eagles right now. So I’m not going to!
The other Los Angeles team looks for real. Denver won’t be an easy matchup, but the Chargers have a great opportunity to start the season 3-0, and not playing in Denver is a nice bonus.
The Ravens are hosting the Lions. The biggest game of the week, also the toughest to pick. I think we’re in for a good one Sunday night. I’ll take the home favorites, but it’s my least confident game for a reason.
