On Tuesday, we ran into more last second pitching changes – always a danger of the late season first inning bettor. We’ve taken a good look for Wednesday and think we have the matchups locked in for our NRFI bets for September 10.
Everybody is back in action on Wednesday, which gives us plenty to work with for NRFI and YRFI props for September 10. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – September 10
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles
First Pitch – 6:35 pm EST
Camden Yards – Baltimore, MD
Broadcast – MLB TV
For the first of our NRFI plays of the day, we got the Pirates swinging first. They rank dead last in runs scored in the majors and are one of just four teams failing to average at least 4.00 runs per game. They also rank in the bottom third of the league in first inning scoring. In short, I’d take a pitching machine to get an NRFI started against these guys. Tyler Wells will instead be given the assignment. After getting plenty of run in 2022 and 2023, Wells is making just his fifth start in the last two years. However, he looked good in his only other start this year – holding the Padres to two runs in 5.0 innings. That included a scoreless first two innings, which he should be able to duplicate here.
In the bottom of the inning, we get the presumed NL Cy Young winner, Paul Skenes. He’s rocking a 1.98 ERA on the year, and has let up just one total earned run in his last three starts combined. Those came against the Dodgers, the Red Sox and the Rockies. Baltimore should be even easier for him when it comes to closing out the NRFI. Not only are they a below average hitting team, but they are awful in the first inning. They rank 26th in the majors in first inning scoring, which just won’t cut it here.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for September 10: No (-145)
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
First Pitch – 7:15 pm EST
Truist Park – Atlanta, GA
Broadcast – MLB TV
The Braves send Chris Sale to the bump on Wednesday and there’s just about nobody who I’m picking to score on him lately. In his last six starts before breaking his rib, he allowed just four total earned runs. That gave him a 1.11 ERA in May and a 0.83 ERA in June. Since coming back, it’s been more of the same. He has allowed one run in back-to-back starts against the Phillies and the Mariners. The Cubs are a solid hitting team, but are near the middle of the league in ther first inning. Between Sale’s success and that fact, I see a clean first frame in their future.
The Braves just haven’t been a good hitting team lately or this year at all. In their last four games, they’ve only managed a meager nine runs (or 2.25 runs per game). The vast majority of those runs are coming late in the game off of opposing bullpens. Now they’ll need to face Jameson Taillon, who was on a hot streak before hitting the IL. He had allowed just four earned runs in his last three starts. While he may not return as good as he was, he should be able to get three quick ones against Atlanta.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for September 10: No (-140)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for September 10, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
