The NFL Season kicks off Thursday night as the reigning Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone enters the season hoping they’ll be next year’s Philadelphia Eagles, but some teams will have to be the Dallas Cowboys, starting over with a new head coach. Some seats enter this season burning hot already. Let’s take a look at the first coach fired odds and best bets for the 2025 NFL season.
Looking back over the last five seasons, when the first Coach was fired, only Matt Rhule of the Carolina Panthers in 2022 was the favorite at the start of the season. Will that trend hold in 2025 and give us a chance to hit a longer shot? Or do the Miami Dolphins pull the trigger early and replace Mike McDaniel?
Last Five First Coaches Fired
2020 Bill O’Brien – Texans
2021 Urban Meyer – Jaguars
2022 Matt Rhule – Panthers
2023 Frank Reich – Colts
2024 Robert Saleh – Jets
First Coach Fired Odds
Mike McDaniel (MIA) +200
Brian Daboll (NYG) +400
Shane Steichen (IND) +700
Dave Canales (CAR) +750
Kevin Stefanski (CLE) +750
Jonathan Gannon (ARI) +800
Zac Taylor (CIN) +900
Brian Callahan (TEN) +1800
Raheem Morris (ATL) +1800
Todd Bowles (TB) +2000
Mike Tomlin (PIT) +2800
Kyle Shanahan (SF) +3300
Kevin O’Connell (MIN) +4000
Matt LaFleur (GB) +4000
Sean McVay (LA) +4000
DeMeco Ryans (HOU) +4000
Sean McDermott (BUF) +6000
Mike Macdonald (SEA) +6600
Sean Payton (DEN) +6600
John Harbaugh (BAL) +7500
Ben Johnson (CHI) +10000
Brian Schottenheimer (DAL) +10000
Dan Campbell (DET) +100000
Dan Quinn (WAS) +10000
Jim Harbaugh (LAC) +10000
Aaron Glenn (NYJ) +15000
Kellen Moore (NO) +15000
Liam Coen (JAX) +15000
Pete Carroll (LV) +20000
Mike Vrabel (NE) +25000
Andy Reid (KC) +50000
Nick Sirianni (PHI) +5000
NFL 2025: First Coach Fired Odds and Best Bets
Shane Steichen – Colts (+700)
Steichen is the first coach who jumps off the board to me when it comes to the favorites. The 40-year-old head coach enters his third season at the helm of the Colts franchise. He’s just 17-17 in his first two years. The leash appears to be short for Steichen, and that’s even more evident when selecting Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson as their starting quarterback. This Colts team is a fragile one, and if things don’t start well for Steichen, it could be bad news. Longtime owner Jim Irsay, who hired Steichen, passed away this summer. His children are now in charge of the team, and I could see them as quick to pull the trigger on Steichen’s job to get someone of their own picking in there.
Shane Steichen is on the hot seat. He picks the veteran that will save his job, maybe, not the developmental project the front office has more invested in. Teams either need to assure their coaches they get more time or fire them once in the hot seat. https://t.co/CCCFLbJ5fy
— IowaSportsBall (@IowaSportsBall) August 19, 2025
Brian Callahan – Titans (+1800)
Callahan is another name that jumps off the board here. The 41-year-old is just entering his second season as the Tennessee Titans head coach, but it’s been a rough start for the former Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator. He went just 3-14 in his first season at the helm for Tennessee, and had a similar ATS record. Meaning the team wasn’t even able to keep the games close. Now he enters year two with #1 overall pick Cam Ward at quarterback. But the team is still the second-lowest projected team in the league with a 5.5 win total. It’s hard to see the case for the Titans to go over five wins; they are only favored in one game all season. If they struggle out of the gate, ownership could be quick to make a change and look to reset for 2026.
There is no way you can read this and then say that Callahan isn’t coaching for his job this year.
They rejected Ran Carthon after one season, thinking they are confident in his biggest move is naive imo.
Cally is 100% on the hot seat. He is not Borgonzi or Brinker’s guy. He… https://t.co/pspnC6a7YS
— TicTacTitans (@TicTacTitans) August 19, 2025
Mike Macdonald – Seahawks (+6600)
Things could be very fragile in the NFC West for the Seattle Seahawks. Moving on from Pete Carroll was a choice, and Mike Macdonald impressed in year one, going 10-7. I think he’s appropriately priced at 66/1, because this would be a true long shot if it cashed. But let’s paint the picture here and look at what could happen. Ghostbusters himself in Sam Darnold, just took big money to come in and be the guy. That alone would be enough to scare me if I were Macdonald. They traded away DK Metcalf, and their offensive line is sketchy at best. Things could fall apart very quickly in Seattle. If the worst-case scenario hits the 12th man, Macdonald could be a long shot that hits the chopping block sooner rather than later.
