The old switcheroo of the starting pitcher caught us off-guard on Wednesday. The Dodgers decided that Shohei wasn’t ready to go in that one and we subsequently loss out first inning action because of it. We’ll look to rebound with some NRFI bets for September 4.
There are only six total games on Thursday, so we had to dig deep for our NRFI and YRFI props for September 4. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – September 4
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
First Pitch – 7:40 pm EST
Kauffman Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Broadcast – MLB TV
It’s surprising to me that this NRFI line is so close to even money when the offenses just aren’t all that strong. The Angels have been on a bit of a downward trend, scoring just 15 runs in their last five games (going into Wednesday). That stretch has dropped them down into the bottom third of the league in terms of run scoring. They’re still head and shoulders ahead of the Royals, who rank 28th in the league in runs and are also 24th in first inning scoring.
Not only are these two teams not all that good at the plate, but I have some confidence in each starter. Seth Lugo is on the bump first. While he’s fallen on a bit of hard times in his last month or so, he’s still rocking a 4.15 ERA and has 125 strikeouts on the year. Plus, even in these last two games against the Tigers – in which he was hit around a bit – he didn’t allow a first inning run in either.
Kyle Hendricks gets the ball to close the NRFI out. Although his surface stats for the year are kind of rough, he is coming off his best outing in some time. He threw 6.0 strong against the Astros and held them to just one run. Not only that, but he did not walk a single batter over that time. If he can come with some version of that stuff, he should get us three outs and the cash.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for September 4: No (-105)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
First Pitch – 7:40 pm EST
Target Field – Minneapolis, MN
Broadcast – MLB TV
We tried this NRFI play on Wednesday and it came up short. However, we’re doubling down with the action on Thursday.
One big reason why is the batting of the White Sox. They are still one of only five teams in the majors who are not averaging at least 4.00 runs per game. Now they’ll need to try to buck the trend against Taj Bradley. The Twins righty is coming off a stellar start where he held the Padres to just one run in 5.0 innings. While his start with the White Sox earlier in August went poorly, I think we can chalk that up to being right after he was traded.
To round out our action on Thursday, we’re going with Shane Smith to shut things down. Smith had a wildly good August where he was undefeated on the mound and managed to allow just 10 earned runs. That came out to a 2.87 ERA for that stretch and saw him fan 31 batters. That month included games against some of the top scoring offenses, like the Yankees, Tigers and Mariners. This should be easier for the righty and he should cruise early.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for September 4: No (-125)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for September 4, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
