The NFL season kicked off with its first full weekend of football! Yes, it is just preseason. Coaches hold back on their playbooks, they try different personnel, and sometimes, starters don’t play at all. However, we can still start to get a feel for how teams will flow. Let’s take a look at the NFL Preseason Week 1 recap, see what we learned, and how it affects the NFL futures we’d like to place. I’ll break down specific games, but leave a shorter note on all the others.
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NFL Preseason Week 1 Recap: What We Learned And NFL Futures
Cincinnati Bengals @ Philadelphia Eagles
The first NFL Preseason Week 1 game to recap is the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles. This was a high-scoring game that some are arguing could be a Super Bowl preview. Granted, guys like Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley didn’t play. However, here’s what we learned from this game, and the NFL futures I’m circling because of it.
Despite Hurts and Barkley, the Eagles’ offense moved the ball easily. Whether that’s an issue with the Bengals’ defense is yet to be seen. However, one year after winning the Super Bowl, the offensive scheme the Eagles are running doesn’t seem to show signs of slowing. I wish the NFL Futures price for the Eagles wasn’t juiced to -135. However, it’s still not juiced too much, and I’m still taking it.
Something else that stood out about this game was Joe Burrow. Burrow didn’t play for very long. However, he went 9/10 for 123 yards and two touchdowns. That’s averaging a touchdown every five throws. He showed he’s still one of the best in the league, hitting both Ja’Marr Chase and Tanner Hudson for touchdowns.
Last year, Burrow threw for 42 passing touchdowns. Part of that may have been the fact that the defense was giving up a lot of points, and they had to throw the ball. Part of that is Joe Burrow being a damned good quarterback. He’s +105 to throw 35 or more regular-season passing touchdowns, and it’s one of my favorite NFL futures. The NFL Week 1 preseason game just justified it for me.
If you think he repeated last year, you can get him to throw 40 or more at +270. I’m taking all his overs.
NFL Futures Based on What We Learned in the NFL Preseason Week 1 Game: Eagles to win division (-135), Burrow 35+ Passing Touchdowns, Burrow 40+ Passing Touchdowns
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
One of the best things to watch for our recap on the NFL Preseason Week 1 games is how players adjust to new teams. On that note, we got to see Justin Fields on his new team, the New York Jets. The Jets defeated the Green Bay Packers 30-10.
For Bears fans, whether they’re still Fields fans or not, they had to love seeing Fields have some success with his new team. Even better, they had to love watching Jordan Love go 1/5 for 7 yards. Fields only threw four passes, connecting on three of those for 42 yards.
However, it’s not his passing that I was focused on, especially when it comes to NFL Futures. When Fields led the Jets down into the red zone, he took off. Utilizing his legs, Fields ran 14 yards for a touchdown. One preseason game, one rushing touchdown.
Last year in ten games, starting just six of them, Fields ran for five touchdowns. The Jets have no reason not to let Fields loose this year, and his rushing touchdown number of 6.5 seems criminally low.
NFL Futures Based on What We Learned in the NFL Preseason Week 1 Game: Justin Fields HIGHER than 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (Underdog Fantasy)
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
The next big Week 1 NFL Preseason Game to recap is the Cleveland Browns at the Carolina Panthers. Many NFL fans were ready to tune in after hearing that Shedeur Sanders was going to be getting the start and playing a good chunk of the game. There was so much controversy from his slide in the draft. It was time to see if it was justified.
While you’ll hear and read on some of the “major networks” talk about how amazing Sanders’ performance was, you won’t exactly get the same report here. Sanders’ debut performance was okay. It had ups and downs. He looked panicked at times, but made some good throws at other times.
It’s hard to fully evaluate his performance without seeing Dillon Gabriel play. I imagine we’ll get a heavy dose of Gabriel next week. However, one thing I’m confident about is that we haven’t seen the last of Sanders. If nothing else, Sanders provides them a flashy quarterback who’s going to do everything he can to make a play, even if that means running for his life every play. In an earlier NFL Futures article, I gave him out at HIGHER than 2.5 games started. It’s up to 3.5, but I still like it.
NFL Futures Based on What We Learned in the NFL Preseason Week 1 Game: Shedeur Sanders HIGHER than 3.5 Games Started (Underdog Fantasy)
Bonus Pick: Tet McMillan
Sanders wasn’t the only rookie making his debut in the Browns vs. Panthers game. Tet McMillan, Carolina’s top-10 pick at wide receiver, also made his debut. Bryce Young looked his way multiple times and he finished the day with two receptions for 43 yards on five targets.
McMillan not only showed big play ability. He showed consistency and good timing with starting quarterback Young. Carolina is going to want to justify taking him, but utilizing him as much as they can. I like him to hit over 800.5 receiving yards (-115).
NFL Futures Based on What We Learned in the NFL Preseason Week 1 Game: Tet McMillan over 800.5 receiving yards
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots
What a debut for Mike Vrabel’s Patriots. Yes, it is just preseason. We know that. However, when we look at our recap of the NFL Week 1 preseason games, the Patriots looked like one of the best teams out there. Their offense put up a league-high 48 points.
One guy that really stood out was rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson took the opening kickoff 100 yards to the house. It was a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a great way to start his career. However, Henderson got involved in other ways as well.
While Henderson only had one carry, he took it for 18 yards. He also caught three passes on three targets. The rookie showed us one thing on Week 1 of the preseason, and that’s that he is electric. The safe play for the NFL Futures based on the Week 1 preseason games is to take Henderson higher than 4.5 rushing touchdowns.
However, call me crazy. What if Ashton Jeanty continues to get stuffed like he did on his three carries this weekend? Cam Ward looked decent, but could struggle early on. Omarian Hampton has competition, and Travis Hunter is going to be splitting reps.
Tyler Shough was up and down in his debut, and the rumor is Spencer Rattler will be the starter to begin with. Carolina’s McMillan looked great, but Bryce Young has to prove he can be an NFL quarterback. The next rookie in the rookie of the year odds? TreVeyon Henderson at +2000.
NFL Futures Based on What We Learned in the NFL Preseason Week 1 Game: TreVeyon Henderson, Rookie Of The Year +2000; HIGHER than 4.5 rushing touchdowns.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Bucs
For all the fuss that was made about Shedeur Sanders, the number one pick in the draft, Cam Ward also made his debut. He’s the last player to talk about in our recap of Week 1 of the NFL Preseason. However, the NFL Futures bet I like the best isn’t exactly on Cam Ward.
Ward looked confident, went through his reads, and threw for 67 yards on eight passes. Five of them were completed. The Titans struck out on their first drive, with Ward missing his first two passes. However, something interesting happened on the Titans’ second possession.
The first pass from Cam Ward was a 27-yard completion to Calvin Ridley. The second pass was offset by a penalty. However, the third pass was a pass for 10 yards to Calvin Ridley. What happened next? The fourth pass was for 13 yards to Calvin Ridley. Tony Pollard capped the drive off with a touchdown run, and Ward and Ridley didn’t see the field again.
For us bettors, though, this had to show the potential of the Ward-Ridley combination. His current receiving yard line is 925.5 yards. Last year, Ridley had 1,017 receiving yards. That was with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph throwing him the ball. The year before, Ridley had 1,106 receiving yards with Jacksonville. That was with multiple games with Mac Jones as his quarterback.
Ward is better than Levis, Rudolph, and Mac Jones and will give Ridley his third season in a row with over 1,000 receiving yards.
NFL Futures Based on What We Learned in the NFL Preseason Week 1 Game: Calvin Ridley over 925.5 receiving yards (-110).
A Couple Of Other Notes
Here’s just a quick other note to finish out the NFL Preseason Week 1 recap.
Denver @ San Francisco: RJ Havey ran the ball seven times for 25 yards and looked comfortable. It’ll be interesting to see how the backfield splits between Havey and JK Dobbins. His rushing stat line is currently 700.5 rushing yards.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals: No notes for NFL Futures.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Etienne only had one carry, but Tuten and Bigsby both outperformed him. I’m not confident in Etienne being the main dog in this offense. Etienne, LOWER than 524.5 rushing yards is tempting.
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams: The Rams ran the ball 38 times. Blake Corum had two rushing touchdowns. However, Kyren Williams didn’t play. The Rams are going to run the ball, and Williams is their starter. He’s had double-digit rushing touchdowns the past two years. Williams’ over 10.5 rushing touchdowns is a smash.
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings: No NFL Futures notes.
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills: Russell Wilson is the starter on this team. However, Jaxson Dart looked damned good. I don’t think you can do an NFL Futures on him yet, but grab him in your dynasty leagues.
Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons: No NFL Futures notes.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks: If Ashton Jeanty has another 3 carry, -1 yard carry stat line, we may need to fade him this season. We’re in uncharted territory, seeing how an NFL rookie performs after such a heavy, heavy workload in college. He had 374 carries just last year. Now he’s been asked to change his stance, and maybe there was too much wear last year.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens: Anthony Richardson got hurt, again. Daniel Jones is going to be the starter for this team. Bet his overs and futures.
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers ran the ball 34 times. Najee Harris has an eye injury that is bad enough that he’s just started to get cleared for physical activity. Take all the Omarian Hampton overs.
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears: We’re all uncertain how the Bears’ backfield will look. Ben Johnson normally has two running backs who get involved. D’Andre Swift is bound to be one of them. However, will Roschon Johnson be the other guy? Kyle Monangai looked good taking six carries for 30 yards in his NFL preseason debut.
