For thousands of sports fans, betting on NFL games adds excitement to every snap, drive, and touchdown. An estimated $100 billion is bet on the NFL annually across all markets. You may be a seasoned professional at betting. However, many are getting ready to place their first-ever bets. Let’s take a look at how to bet on the NFL. From the basics to some strategies, here’s a complete guide to wagering on the NFL.
How to Bet on the NFL: The Complete Guide to Football Wagering
The NFL Betting Basics
We’ll start our how-to bet on the NFL guide by going over the basics. The foundation of NFL wagering rests on three primary bet types. You have point spreads, moneylines, and totals. Point spread betting remains the most popular way to bet on football. Sportsbooks assign a handicap to level the playing field between teams of differing abilities.
For example, when the Kansas City Chiefs are listed as -6 favorites against the Denver Broncos, they must win by more than a touchdown to cover the spread. Conversely, the Broncos as +6 underdogs can lose by six points or fewer (or win outright) for a successful bet. This is my favorite way to bet an NFL game.
Historically, about one-fourth of all NFL games are decided by exactly 3 or 7 points. These are key numbers that significantly impact betting strategy.
Moneyline betting offers a simpler approach by focusing solely on which team will win the game outright. Odds are displayed with negative numbers for favorites. -150 means you must bet $150 to win $100. Positive numbers for underdogs. +180 means a $100 bet wins $180. Even though it’s riskier, hitting a Moneyline dog is always a rush.
While favorites win more often, underdogs provide value. This is especially true in divisional matchups, where they cover the spread nearly 55% of the time.
Totals betting (over/unders) shifts focus from who wins to how many points will be scored combined by both teams. The average NFL game total typically falls between 42 to 48 points. However, things like weather conditions can dramatically affect scoring potential.
Advanced NFL Betting Markets
Beyond the basics, NFL betting offers numerous specialized markets. Player prop bets have exploded in popularity, allowing wagers on individual performances rather than team outcomes. Quarterback passing yards, running back rushing totals, and anytime touchdown scorers represent some of the most commonly bet props.
Betting on first touchdowns is a great way to win some serious cash. It’s also a great way to go on a losing streak. Savvy bettors study matchups. For example, targeting elite receivers against weak secondaries
Parlays combine multiple bets into a single wager with higher potential payouts, though all selections must win. These are tempting due to their big paydays. However, parlays carry significantly higher risk. Sportsbooks maintain a 25-30% advantage on these bets long-term.
More experienced bettors often use live betting to capitalize on in-game developments. When a star player gets injured or weather conditions worsen, odds adjust in real-time. This creates opportunities for those watching closely. Teams trailing by 10+ points at halftime historically cover only 28% of second-half spreads, presenting live betting value on the favorites.
Winning NFL Betting Strategies
So now that you know a little more on how to bet the NFL, let’s talk about some winning betting strategies.
Successful NFL betting requires more than just picking winners. It demands discipline and smart bankroll management. Professional bettors typically risk no more than 1-5% of their bankroll on any single game. This ensures they can withstand inevitable losing streaks. Tracking every wager in a spreadsheet or betting app helps identify strengths and weaknesses in your approach. I keep a spreadsheet of all my bets, tracking wins and losses.
Many successful bettors specialize in specific areas, like divisional games or primetime matchups, rather than trying to bet every game.
Line shopping represents another critical strategy. Different sportsbooks often post slightly varying odds. Securing an extra half-point on a spread or better moneyline odds can dramatically impact long-term results. For instance, getting the Dallas Cowboys at -2.5 instead of -3 improves a bettor’s win probability by about 4%. There are several different apps and sites that help track these differences for you.
Weather conditions also significantly influence outcomes, particularly in outdoor northern stadiums during late-season games. Wind affects passing games more than rain or snow, with games played in 15+ mph winds seeing scoring drop by an average of 5 points.
Divisional matchups tend to follow different patterns than other games. The familiarity between teams leads to closer contests. Underdogs cover spreads more frequently than in non-division games. Home-field advantage also proves more pronounced in division rivalries, with hosts winning nearly 57% of the time.
Bettors should also pay close attention to injury reports. Particularly along offensive lines, where one weak link can disrupt an entire offense. I still wholeheartedly believe, football is won in the trenches! The timing of bets matters too – lines move throughout the week as money comes in, with sharp bettors often waiting for optimal numbers. If a player was banged up in the previous game and you think he may miss the game, but the market hasn’t adjusted, an early bet may be crucial!
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Many early bettors fall into predictable traps that undermine their success. Emotional betting, such as always backing your favorite team, can be bad. Especially if you’re a Bears fan like me. Chasing losses after a bad beat also leads to poor decision-making. Others overreact to a single week’s performance, forgetting that NFL teams evolve throughout the season.
Perhaps the most dangerous mistake involves poor bankroll management, where bettors risk too much on single games or chase losses with increasingly reckless wagers. Even professional bettors typically only hit 55-58% of their wagers long-term, demonstrating how small edges compound over time. One of my biggest mistakes early on was automatically betting bigger after a good win. You should set your unit-size and stick to it. For example, if you’re unit size is $10, just because you hit a $100 payout, doesn’t mean you should immediately start betting more than $10.
Another frequent error involves misunderstanding value. A team doesn’t need to win for a bet to be correct. They just need to perform better than the odds imply. For example, a +200 underdog only needs to win 33% of the time to break even. So if you believe their true odds are better, it’s a mathematically sound bet regardless of outcome. Many casual bettors also overlook the importance of shopping for the best lines across multiple sportsbooks, leaving money on the table by always using just one book.
How To Bet The NFL And Remain Successful
Becoming a profitable NFL bettor requires patience and continuous learning. Start by focusing on a few games each week rather than trying to bet everything. Develop a consistent approach to evaluating matchups. Considering factors like injuries, weather, and recent performance trends.
Keep detailed records to identify what types of bets work best for your style. Remember that even the most successful professional bettors experience losing streaks. What separates them from recreational players is their ability to maintain discipline during tough stretches.
The NFL’s 272-game regular season provides ample opportunities to find value. By understanding core betting concepts, employing sound money management, and avoiding common pitfalls, you can approach NFL wagering with confidence.
Whether you prefer point spreads, player props, or live betting, the keys to success remain the same: make informed decisions, manage your bankroll wisely, and always look for edges that the market might have missed. With the right approach, betting on the NFL can transform your football viewing experience while potentially yielding profits over the long run. Bet responsibly, and good luck! Feel free to ask me any questions on X at JMarkfootball!
