The North American summer hard-court season is underway as anticipation builds for the final Grand Slam of the year at Flushing Meadows in New York.
There were plenty of upsets at the latest major, Wimbledon, but the tournament ultimately delivered a relatively predictable outcome on the men’s side, with Jannik Sinner defeating Carlos Alcaraz in the second consecutive Grand Slam final between the pair.
Iga Swiatek wasn’t the favourite on the women’s side, but as a serial winner, her victory was hardly a surprise – and she will be well fancied to add another US Open title to her collection.
Can Anyone Break the Sinner-Alcaraz Stranglehold?
Since Wimbledon 2022, every men’s Grand Slam title has been claimed by either Sinner, Alcaraz, or Novak Djokovic. The Serbian great, however, has not lifted a major trophy since the 2023 US Open and now faces an uphill battle in his pursuit of a record-extending 25th.
Even at 38 years old, Djokovic remains the most likely man to stop either of the top two from triumphing again. Tennis betting sites on FIRST have Sinner as the 11/10 favourite, with Alcaraz at 15/8 and Djokovic next at 8/1.
The market appears to have lost faith in Alexander Zverev – the three-time Grand Slam finalist who is still chasing his first major title.
Jack Draper is rated more highly, with the Brit continuing his upward climb by breaking into the ATP top five and capturing the biggest title of his career at Indian Wells earlier this season.
Home Hopes Rest Mainly on Fritz and Shelton
Taylor Fritz came within one match of ending the USA’s two-decade-plus wait for a homegrown US Open champion last year, but never truly challenged Sinner in the final, falling in straight sets to the Italian.
The world number four has every reason to believe he can go on another deep run, though, having reached the Wimbledon semi-finals and almost taking Alcaraz to a fifth set.
Ben Shelton has also proven himself to be the man for the big occasion. He tends to save his best efforts for the majors, and will look to build on his semi-final berth at the Australian Open with another strong performance at a hardcourt Slam.
Shelton, who made the last four at the US Open in 2023, lost in the third round a year ago in an epic all-American clash with Frances Tiafoe, who also raises his game at Flushing Meadows and is someone the top seeds will want to avoid in the second week.
Sabalenka Aiming to End Mini Major Drought
Aryna Sabalenka finished runner-up in both Melbourne and Paris this year and fell just short of the final at Wimbledon. Now, she faces the prospect of ending a season without a Grand Slam title for the first time since 2022.
The Belarusian remains the favourite to retain her US Open crown, ahead of Swiatek and Coco Gauff – both of whom have captured major titles since Sabalenka last lifted one.
Swiatek, who prevailed at SW19, defeated Sabalenka in the semi-finals three years ago en route to her first Grand Slam title away from Roland Garros.
Gauff endured a difficult grasscourt swing but will undoubtedly be in the mix in New York. The French Open champion is a 13/2 shot for the US Open currently but that price could come crashing in if she shows some promise in the build-up to her home Grand Slam.
For Mirra Andreeva, it feels like a matter of when, not if, she gets to her first major final. She made her breakthrough by reaching the Roland Garros semis aged just 17 last year, and proved her multi-surface capabilities by winning two WTA 1000 events on hard courts in the first half of 2025.
Madison Keys, Amanda Anisimova, and Jessica Pegula are all contenders for the USA. They have each participated in a major final in the last 12 months, with Keys winning the Australian Open while the other two fell short.
Two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka could be one to watch, too. Her game is heading in the right direction again and she is extremely dangerous on this surface.
