There are a lot of ways to go about betting on college football and determining your sports betting picks! One way is to listen to The College Experience, the best college football sports betting podcast! Another, maybe more unorthodox way, is to go through CFB 26 game simulation 100 different times. We did the latter for this article to create the ultimate college football betting guide! Let’s dive in and take a look!
We Simulated CFB 26 100 Times To Create The Ultimate College Football Betting Guide
College Football Playoffs
To start the ultimate college football betting guide based on our 100 simulations of CFB 26, let’s take a look at who made the playoffs the most. If you are new to college football sports betting, you can make betting picks on which teams make the playoffs.
In the 100 simulations, the team that made the playoffs the most is Penn State, making it 83 of 100 times. Given that Penn State is -350 to make the playoffs, there isn’t a lot of value there. The team to make the playoffs the second most, with 79 out of 100 times, is Miami. This does have some value as they’re +170. This is the first of our college football betting picks on our college football betting guide.
Next, we have Texas Tech, which made it 77 times, and Oregon, which made it 76. Oregon is -270, so it may not hold much value. However, Texas Tech is a juicy +450. Whether it’s just the game developers’ favoritism or the college football schedule for them, the game likes Texas Tech much more than the books do.
Other teams reaching the playoffs over half the time include Clemson (74), Georgia (69), Boise State (57), and Duke (54). Clemson and Georgia are -200 and -250. However, I like pairing them with Penn State and Oregon in a parlay that pays +270 if all four make the playoffs. Boise State has good college football sports betting value at +190. Finally, Duke is worth a small sprinkle at +1400. At least on paper, they have a team that could compete.
If you’re wondering about the favorite Ohio State (-400), their tough schedule led them to the playoffs only 48 of 100 times. Texas (-330) made it only 39 of the times.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
*Miami to make the playoffs (+170)
*Boise State to make the playoffs (+190)
*Parlay: Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, Clemson to Make Playoffs (+270)
Final Four + Championship Game Data
Maybe you don’t want to make your college football sports betting picks until the betting guide has shown you how many times these teams actually advanced in the playoffs. The team that advanced the most to the final four is the Penn State Nittany Lions, advancing 42 times out of 100.
Oregon was second with 41, followed by Miami (38), Georgia (36), Texas Tech (31), and Clemson (28). This further supports our parlay of Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, and Clemson to make the playoffs at +270.
Other teams making the final four a good handful of times include Texas (23), Duke (18), Michigan (15), Ohio State (14), Texas A&M (14), and Notre Dame (10). All other teams made the final four less than 10 times. If you think both Ohio State and Penn State can make the playoffs, you can add Ohio State into the playoff parlay to make it +362.
If you want to break it down even further, it is a bit surprising to see which teams make the Championship Game the most. Three teams made it 22 of 100 times. One of those teams was Penn State, which is -350 to make the playoffs and +700 to win the Championship. Georgia also made it 22 times. They are -250 to make the playoffs and +700 to win it. The other team that made the Championship game 22 times was Miami. They are +170 to make the playoffs and +4000 to win the Championship Game.
Can their new defensive coordinator and quarterback, Carson Beck, take them that far? Other teams that made the Championship game more than ten times each include Oregon (20), Clemson (17), Texas (16), Texas Tech (16), and Duke (11).
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
Parlay: Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State to Make Playoffs (+362)
View A Copy Of the Data Here
National College Football Champion Picks
What’s an ultimate college football betting guide without some sports betting picks predicting the National Champion? Obviously, since we simulated CFB 26 100 times, we had 100 National Champions. Here’s what we learned on what we should be betting on for college football.
One of the most interesting things that jumped out is that apparently, EA Sports CFB doesn’t think too highly of Ohio State. Even though most books have them as a favorite to win the National Championship at +500, they didn’t win it once in the 100 CFB 26 simulations.
Notre Dame (+1200) and Alabama (+1100) each won a National Championship. More importantly, that means 99 times they didn’t. Teams with two National Championship wins in 100 simulations include Oklahoma, Florida, and Iowa State.
USC, Texas A&M, and Indiana each had three. Michigan stood alone with four National Championship wins. Texas and Texas Tech each had five, while Duke stood alone with six. Then it jumps to nine wins with Clemson (+1000). Cade Klubnik won 9% of the simulations on CFB 26. Can he do it for real?
Now we get into the four teams that had double-digit wins. Winning 10% of the National Championships, Georgia (+700) and Oregon (+1200) each won 10 of them. They were topped by only two teams. If you were to bet the top four here, you’d still come out ahead in money.
The surprise isn’t that Penn State won the National Championship 17 times, or 17% of the simulations. They’ve got the third-best odds with Georgia at +700. The surprise is that the other team that won 17% of the simulations is +4000. That’s right, Miami.
Apparently, on paper, the algorithms of CFB 26 simulations love Carson Beck in Miami as well as the should-be improved defense. It would be a crazy college football sports betting pick to hit, and so we have to include it in our betting guide!
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
Sprinkle a little on the top four teams. Penn State (+700), Miami (+4000), Oregon (+1200), and Georgia (+700).
College Football Heisman Candidates
Here’s where the game may have gotten a little far-fetched. The Heisman trophy is often won by a quarterback, though we know not always. We just saw Travis Hunter win it as a CB/WR. Whether he should have or not is a different subject that we won’t get into.
Before we dive into the top college football sports betting picks for the Heisman, let’s expand the betting guide to look at who finished as a top-five candidate the most. Out of 100 CFB 26 simulations, only 12 players finished as top-five Heisman candidates more than 10 times out of the 100 simulations.
Of those 12 players, Clemson wide receiver Tyler Brown (13 times), Oregon running back Makhi Hughes (18), and USF quarterback Byrum Brown (33) have odds so long that most books don’t even offer them.
Finishing as a top-five Heisman Candidate 10 times, quarterback Gunner Stockton, is +2500 to win the Heisman. Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams (+3500) and USC Quarterback Jayden Maiava (+7000) reached the top-five fifteen different times.
SMU Quarterback Kevin Jennings (+5000) was a top-five candidate 19 times. Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar (+6000) was in the voting 23 times. That brings us to the top four players to be considered Heisman candidates according to the 100 CFB 26 simulations.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (+2000) was considered 33 times while his wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith (+1100), was considered 50 times. Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch (+20000) was considered a Heisman candidate 40 times. Georgia isn’t known for having Heisman candidates, especially on offense.
College Football Heisman Winner
That brings us to the guy who was in the top-five Heisman candidates the most, Cade Klubnik. The Clemson quarterback was up for a Heisman 59 different times and is currently the third favorite on the books at +950. So, who won it the most?
The same guy who was in the top five the most, Cade Klubnik, won it most often as well. He won 28 times out of 100 CFB 26 simulations. The only two closest to him, as well as the only two that won over double-digit times, were wide receivers Zachariah Branch and Jeremiah Smith.
Given that this is a quarterback-driven award most of the time, recently anyways, it’s hard not to lay a little on Cade Klubnik.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
Heisman Winner: Cade Klubnik (+950)
Conference Championship Winners Sports Betting Picks
AAC, ACC, Big 12, and Big 10 Winners
What kind of ultimate college football betting guide would this be without some conference championship picks to bet? In our 100 CFB 26 simulations, we learned who has a chance of winning each conference. Let’s see where the college football sports betting values are for conference winners.
Let’s start with the AAC. Out of 100 simulations, Tulane won almost half of the time, with 46 conference championship wins. USF followed them with 22. Tulane is currently the favorite to win the conference, but at +300. They’re followed by Navy at +380, who won 17 of the simulations.
The ACC wasn’t as clear-cut, but it still had a team that won more than the others. Miami, the team that the developers must love, won the ACC 40 times. They’re currently +380 to win the division. Clemson, which is the favorite to win the division at +105, won 29 times. Winning 22 times in 100 simulations was Duke. Duke is currently +2500 to win the conference, and it just doesn’t seem likely.
The Big 12 had scattered results, with only one team having more than 12 wins. That team was Texas Tech, which is currently +600 to win the division. The current favorites to win the division are Kansas State and Arizona State at +550. K-State won 11 times while Arizona State only won 6. The only other team with double-digit conference championships in 100 simulations was Baylor (+700) with 10.
The Big 10 had four teams with double-digit conference championship wins in the 100 CFB 26 simulations. However, which are worth our college football betting picks? Penn State, the team that had some of the most National Championships, won its division the most times with 32. They’re currently +240 to win the division. Oregon won 27 times. They’re currently +320. Ohio State is the current favorite at +190 and won 16 times, while Michigan (+800) won 10 times.
View A Copy Of the Data Here
CUSA, MAC, MWC, SEC, & SUn Belt Winners
The current favorite to win the Conference USA championship is Liberty at +125. The game simulations agreed and had them winning the conference 45 times. The next closest was FIU (+1600) with 19 wins.
The MAC was a very close race. Buffalo (+400) ended up winning it the most with 39 wins. However, conference favorite Toledo (+230) wasn’t far behind with 35 wins. Miami-Ohio was the only other team with double-digit conference championship wins and is currently +700.
Boise State is the favorite to win the Mountain West at -140 and rightly so. They’ve done a good job controlling that conference for a while now. They won the conference more than any other team won their conference, with 79 of 100 wins. The next closest was UNLV (+600) with 15.
The SEC consisted of two teams that won it most. Georgia led the way with 33 wins out of 100 simulations. They’re currently +330 to win the conference. Texas won 21 times and is the conference favorite at +270.
Finally, the Sun Belt was another close race, with James Madison winning 39 of 100 simulations. They’re the current favorite at +290. Coming in with 33 wins, Southern Mississippi is +1400 to win the conference.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
AAC Winner: Tulane (+300)
C-USA Winner: Liberty (+125)
MWC: Boise State (-140)
SEC: Georgia (+330)
Sun Belt: James Madison (+290)
Parlay: James Madison, Boise State, Liberty, Tulane to all win their conferences (+5917)
