It’s back to the famed yard of bricks for the NASCAR Cup Series this week. After taking a hiatus from 2021 to 2023, the Brickyard 400 returned to the Cup Series schedule in 2024. Kyle Larson nabbed the victory last year, and the series is back for round two in the NextGen car. Let’s jump in and look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is the same famed 2.5-mile oval built in 1909 that hosts the Indianapolis 500. NASCAR went there for the first time in 1994, and the race won by Jeff Gordon quickly became a Crown Jewel event. The famed “kissing of the bricks” was started by, that’s right, a NASCAR driver. Dale Jarrett and crew were the first to do so in 1996. The race received a warm welcome back last year.
There isn’t a direct comparison track to look at when handicapping this race, although Pocono, which the series just visited a few weeks ago, is the closest comparison. Pocono is also 2.5 miles long and sweeping. I’ll also look at last year’s race here; there are some cases where you can look over a long career, but I wouldn’t lean too heavily on past races here other than last year. Current form, and how drivers and teams have done recently at intermediates, will also play into a majority of my handicapping.
NASCAR Picks: Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Denny Hamlin +440
Kyle Larson +550
Ryan Blaney +700
Tyler Reddick +1000
William Byron +1000
Chase Elliott +1000
Christopher Bell +1200
Chris Buescher +1200
Chase Briscoe +1300
Ty Gibbs +1900
Brad Keselowski +2100
Joey Logano +2700
Carson Hocevar +2900
Bubba Wallace +3100
Alex Bowman +3200
Ross Chastain +3200
Kyle Busch +4000
Josh Berry +5000
Austin Cindric +6000
John Hunter Nemechek +7500
Ryan Preece +7500
Erik Jones +7500
Daniel Suarez +10000
AJ Allmendinger +18000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +24000
Austin Dillon +24000
Cole Custer +28000
Michael McDowell +28000
Jesse Love +28000
Noah Gragson +28000
Zane Smith +28000
Shane Van Gisbergen +34000
Justin Haley +36000
Todd Gilliland +38000
Riley Herbst +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Katherine Legge +50000
NASCAR Picks: Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Brad Keselowski Top 10 (+110)
Brad Keselowski is the perfect mix of a driver who has been good here in the past, ran well last season, and has looked good lately. If I could place one bet this week, this is the one I feel the most confident in. Keselowski was on his way to winning this race last year, leading 35 laps late before having to pit for fuel in overtime. In three of his four previous starts here, he finished in the top four.
Lately, he’s coming off finishes of 10th at Dover and 11th at Sonoma. He’s scored four top 10s in the last five races. At intermediate tracks, he finished ninth at Pocono, 10th at Michigan, and fifth at Charlotte. Even when he was struggling at the start of the season, he scored an 11th-place finish at Las Vegas. Good at this track, and himself and his entire RFK team finding their stride lately are all things I love. Give me the top 10, and I like him as a long shot to win at 21/1 as well.
Denny Hamlin Top 3 (+140)
Is there a hotter driver in the series right now? Hamlin has finished top five in five of the last seven races this year, winning two of those. His win at Dover last week was already his fourth of the year. In 20 races, he’s finished inside the top five in half of them and inside the top three in eight of them. He’s scored finishes of third at Pocono, a win at Michigan, third at Nashville, a win at Darlington, and fifth at Miami.
Last year in this race, he won stage one, finished third in stage two, and led 21 laps before getting caught up in a wreck. In the last eight races at Indianapolis, he’s finished in the top six on five occasions. A Brickyard win is the only big-ticket item missing from Denny’s trophy case besides a championship trophy.
In terms of “Conventional Track” Total Speed Rankings, Denny Hamlin hasn’t ranked lower than 2nd since Charlotte.
*** Conventional = Minus superspeedways and road courses
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) July 21, 2025
Denny Hamlin Over Kyle Larson (-115)
For all the same reasons listed above, this is more of a bet on Hamlin than a fade of Larson. I’ve already laid out the case for why Hamlin should be an elite top-three driver this week. Larson, of course, has the ability to be that kind of driver, but we haven’t seen it from him lately. After dominating the race at Kansas Speedway earlier this spring, Larson attempted the double for the Indy 500 and Coke 600, and things didn’t go well. He hasn’t been the same since. A fourth-place finish last week at Dover was only his second top five since Kansas, and if it wasn’t for late pit strategy, he likely wouldn’t have finished that good. We had Hamlin over Larson in last week’s article, and that bet wasn’t a sweat all day.
His average finish since Charlotte is just 18.0, compared to Hamlin’s 9.75. He finished seventh at Pocono and fifth at Michigan, but 37th at Charlotte and didn’t beat Hamlin in any of those three races. After leading 221 laps at Kansas, Larson has only led 37 since. Until he’s the Larson of old, which will return soon enough, we’re going to cash in betting against him like last week.
Chase Briscoe to Win (+1300)
If there is a driver who can compete with Hamlin for that title of hottest driver, it’s teammate Chase Briscoe. Briscoe has finished second each of the last two weeks and has been in the top seven in four of the last six races. He won at Pocono in dominating fashion, leading 72 laps. Started on the pole at Michigan before troubles, and finished fourth at Kansas, and third at Charlotte. Things are clicking on all four Joe Gibbs Racing cars lately, and especially with Hamlin and Briscoe. On top of that, he won at the only close comparison track just a few weeks ago, give me Briscoe at 13/1.
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