Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for July 19.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for July 19. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 19
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
First Pitch – 6:40 pm EST
PNC Park – Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast – MLB TV
The obvious reason we like this NRFI on Saturday is that these are two of the worst scoring teams in the majors. The Pirates are dead last with 3.34 runs per game, and the White Sox are only a whisker better – 28th with 3.49 per game. You could almost go in on the NRFI blind of the pitching situation. Lucky for us, there is actually a pretty strong pitching matchup in this one.
The Pirates send out Mike Burrows to the bump on Saturday. He may not have the surface numbers we typically look for, but he’s been solid lately. He’s held opponents to one run or less in three of his last four starts. That run contains starts against the Mets and the Mariners, who are both hitting the ball measurably better than the White Sox. As a result, I think Burrows can give us a clean frame.
The bottom of the inning is eve better in terms of the pitching. Adrian Houser was written off by a number of teams before landing in Chicago. All he’s done since arriving is straight shove. He’s got a 1.59 ERA for them and has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts. That comes out to a 0.41 ERA in those starts. If there’s a team that’s going to disrupt that trend, it certainly isn’t Pittsburgh.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 19: No (-135)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
First Pitch – 7:05 pm EST
George M. Steinbrenner Field – Tampa, FL
Broadcast – MLB TV
Speaking of solid pitching matchups, I love the one down in Tampa on Saturday. The Orioles get their hacks first and will have to do so off of Zack Littell. That’s a pitcher they are more than a little familiar with. In fact, two of Littell’s last five starts have come against this Baltimore squad. In those games, he tallied 13.0 innings and only allowed four earned runs – which comes out to a 2.77 ERA. He’s also been in command of his pitches, limiting them to just two walks over the two games. Familiarity typially leans towards the batter, which is why we see a favorable line here. Still, I think Littell can keep it up for at least three outs.
We have a samiliar level of familiarity in the bottom of the inning as well. Dean Kramer has faced the Rays twice in his last five games too. For him, he’s thrown 12.0 innings and allowed just one run to the Rays (0.75 ERA). He’s also been on a nice run outside of just the head-to-head. In his most recent start, he held the Marlins scoreless over 7.0 innings. He struck out seven in that game and allowed just three baserunners.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 19: No (-105)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for July 19, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
