One round is in the books, and we’re off to a strong start—cashing our +125 3-Ball bet with ease. Sam Burns cruised past Aldrich Potgieter by 7 strokes and Brooks Koepka by 5. A no-sweat winner like that is always a blessing.
With a full round of data now available and the forecast (thanks, windfinder.com) calling for similar playing conditions in Round 2, it’s a great time to dive back into the matchup and 3-Ball markets.
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Round 2 3-Ball Picks
Jason Day (+125) vs. Jacob Skov Olesen / Taylor Pendrith
Jason Day opened with a disappointing 73, but he spoke in his post-round presser about how motivated he is to bounce back. He’s only six shots off the lead—not a terrible position—and he’s been prepping hard for this Open. His recent form has been solid, and I expect a sharper effort in Round 2.
Jacob Skov Olesen, on the other hand, surged to a 67 and a share of the lead. He’s an exciting young player but hasn’t been in this position in a major before. Holding a lead on this stage is a different kind of pressure, and regression feels likely.
As for Taylor Pendrith, a 75 in Round 1 wasn’t surprising. His skill set leans heavily on the driver and putter—two tools that don’t translate especially well to Royal Portrush. This isn’t his kind of track, and I’ll fade him again here.
Tom Hoge (+300) vs. Wyndham Clark / Corey Conners
Yes, you read that right—we’re backing Tom Hoge after an 81. But hear me out.
On paper, this is the exact kind of setup Hoge should thrive in: positional play off the tee and dialed mid-irons into tight targets. That’s his formula. Clark, who carded a 76, doesn’t profile as a great fit here—his strengths lie elsewhere. Conners led the group with a 74 but is reportedly still battling a nagging hand injury.
At +300, we’re getting a golfer with no pressure and a skill set that matches the course. Sometimes, that “nothing to lose” attitude unlocks a low round. I’ll take a flier on Hollywood Hoge to surprise.
