NASCAR heads back to a traditional oval for the first time in a while. After back-to-back road courses, a drafting track race, a triangle, and another road course, this will be the first “true oval” since June 8th at Michigan. They’ll take on the “Monster Mile” Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET on TNT. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover.
Nicknamed the “Monster Mile,” this track will chew up and spit out both the car and driver. It’s a 1-mile high-speed concrete oval that has hosted NASCAR racing since it opened in 1969. Goodyear is introducing a brand-new one-off tire for the week, which hasn’t undergone on-track testing and hasn’t been used elsewhere. We all know that it can go either way!
Denny Hamlin is the reigning race winner, leading 136 of the 400 laps in last year’s Wurth 400. Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott rounded out the top five finishers. Martin Truex Jr (2023) and Chase Elliott (2022) are the other two NextGen winners at the track.
NASCAR Picks: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Odds and Best Bets
Denny Hamlin +500
Kyle Larson +500
Ryan Blaney +750
William Byron +750
Chase Elliott +1200
Ross Chastain +1200
Christopher Bell +1400
Tyler Reddick +1400
Alex Bowman +1800
Chase Briscoe +2000
Chris Buescher +2500
Joey Logano +2500
Kyle Busch +2500
Brad Keselowski +2800
Carson Hocevar +3000
Ty Gibbs +3000
Austin Cindric +5000
Bubba Wallace +5000
Josh Berry +5000
Ryan Preece +5000
AJ Allmendinger +7000
Erik Jones +9000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +125000
Austin Dillon +25000
Cole Custer +25000
Daniel Suarez +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Michael McDowell +25000
Noah Gragson +25000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Zane Smith +25000
Riley Herbst +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cody Ware +100000
JJ Yeley +100000
NASCAR Picks: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Odds and Best Bets
Denny Hamlin Over Kyle Larson (-125)
It’s not very often I feel comfortable fading the best race car driver in the world. However, Larson hasn’t been himself since his wreck in the Indy 500. Combine that with Hamlin’s performance lately and his strength at this track, and it makes the perfect spot to fade the driver of the Hendrick Motorsports #5 car.
Larson only has one finish better than 13th in the last five races. Since his dominating win at Kansas back on May 11th, he’s only been inside the top 10 on three occasions, and top five only once. Hamlin has beaten Larson head-to-head in six of the last seven races this season (Mexico excluded, where Hamlin didn’t race, but Larson finished 36th).
Hamlin has finished ahead of Larson in the last two races at Dover, and the last four non-road-course/drafting-track races as well. Denny has crushed at Dover consistently, being one of the fastest cars in all three races in the NextGen era here.
Denny Hamlin at Dover in the Next Gen …
2024 = 1st. Best Driver Rating, best Total Speed Ranking, led 136 laps. Dominated in closing time.
2023 = 5th. 4.9 average running position. 3rd best Total Speed Ranking.
2022 = “In 2022, Hamlin might’ve just had the best car but his… pic.twitter.com/QOdXm6n1GH
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) July 15, 2025
Chase Elliott Top 5 (+125)
This number is lower than I typically want for a top five, but it’s hard to ignore Elliott right now. Through 20 races in 2025, he’s yet to finish worse than 20th. He has eight top-five and 11 top-10 finishes. Elliott’s currently on a run and feeling good with four top-five finishes in his last five races, including a win at Atlanta to knock off a 40+ race winless streak.
He’s been even better at Dover with a win in 2022 and a fifth-place finish last year. In 14 career starts at the Monster Mile, Elliott has finished in the top five an astonishing 10 times. He’s also been great at Bristol, one of the closest comp tracks to look at, where he’s finished top eight in four of five starts in the NextGen era.
Ty Gibbs Top 10 (+150)
Gibbs is on a best bets article streak as this is the third week in a row he’s made it. He cashed a top five for us at Chicago and came close to doing it again last week at Sonoma. This week, all we need is a top 10. Ty has been in solid form lately as he chases a playoff spot, sitting just 60 points on the outside looking in currently. He’s on a six-race streak of finishing inside the top 15, and had finishes of third at Bristol and ninth at Darlington. Both tracks you can take comparisons from.
In his two starts at Dover, Gibbs finished 13th in year one (2023) and followed it up with a strong 10th-place performance last season. He also finished top five in both Xfinity Series starts at Dover in 2021 and 2022. He’s worth a little coin at 30/1 to win as well; that first win is coming soon.
Denny Hamlin to Win (+500)
I have no problem biting the bullet and taking the favorite this week in Hamlin. He’s red hot coming into this race with tough days at Sonoma and Atlanta being the outliers. He finished fourth at Chicago, riding that new Dad energy. Second at Pocono, he won at Michigan and finished third at Nashville. He was strong at Bristol with a second-place finish and scored the win at Darlington earlier this season.
Add in two wins and six top fives in the last 10 races at Dover. The ability to dominate late like they did last season, along with all the speed he’s had in 2025. It’s a Hamlin week to bring it all home.
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