Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for July 5.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for July 5. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 5
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
First Pitch – 2:20 pm EST
Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL
Broadcast – MLB TV
Kicking off this NRFI bid on Saturday is Drew Pomeranz. That’s right, the longtime starter is getting the ball in a likely opener role against the Cardinals. While some might be pumping the breaks right there with the NRFI play, they’re missing that Pomeranz has been sensational this year. He’s thrown 23.1 innings and hasn’t allowed a single earned run all year. That includes a pair of performances against these same Cardinals totaling 2.0 innings, one hit and one strikeout. Add in that St. Louis has been 29th in the majors in scoring in the first inning and the top of the first should be a breeze.
We’re rocking with another underrated pitcher in the bottom of the first. Matthew Liberatore is getting the ball and trying to blank the Cubs for us. He enters Saturday’s action with a respectable 3.70 ERA. He’s coming off a performance where he held Cleveland scoreless for 6.0 innings. In each of the two previous outings, he held opponents to two or less runs. While the Cubs are a solid hitting team, they haven’t been slugging all that much lately. They have scored just 22 runs over their last five games (or 4.4 runs per game). That rate is about a run per game below their season average.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 5: No (+110)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
First Pitch – 7:15 pm EST
Dodger Stadium – Los Angeles, CA
Broadcast – Fox
The pitching matchup in this one is much more heralded than our first NRFI matchup. The top half of the inning would hardly need it. The Astros have been miserable in the first inning this year. They rank 26th in first inning runs per game at 0.36. What won’t help that statistic is a showdown with Shohei. Ohtani takes to the bump on Saturday and he’s looked solid in his last two outings. After shaking off some rust, he’s thrown 3.0 scoreless with three strikeouts. This Astros lineup shouldn’t give him much trouble at the start.
While the Dodgers have been good in the first, and across the game in general, I like Framber Valdez’s chances to keep them quiet early on. Valdez has a 2.72 ERA on the year and has been even better lately. He’s gone 13.0 straight innings without having allowed a run. He’s also only allowed one run over his last 17.0 innings. That comes out to a 0.53 ERA in that span.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 5: No (-140)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for July 5, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
