NASCAR goes international this week! The stars and teams of both the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series head south of the border to the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. They’ll use the 14-turn 2.417-mile layout of this track located in Mexico City. The Xfinity Series previously raced at this track with a different layout from 2005-2008. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City.
Last week’s winner, Denny Hamlin, will miss this week’s event. Hamlin and Fiancé Jordan Fish announced the birth of their son on Thursday, and Hamlin confirmed he wouldn’t participate in the race as the baby was born too late for Hamlin to travel internationally and as they transition both Jordan and the baby home. The team will apply for a playoff waiver, which NASCAR had previously clarified that the birth of a child would fall under a medical waiver. Hamlin has already locked in his playoff position with three wins on the year.
Ryan Truex, the brother of retired Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr, will sub for Hamlin in the #11 Joe Gibbs Racing entry. Truex, who hasn’t started a Cup Race since 2014, works as the team’s main simulation driver, helping with car set-ups among other things. One more quick note. I don’t believe Chicago translates to road courses being a street course, so when I mention road course stats, Chicago will not be included.
NASCAR Picks: Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City Odds and Best Bets
Shane Van Gisbergen +350
Christopher Bell +650
Kyle Larson +850
Tyler Reddick +900
William Byron +900
Chase Elliott +1100
AJ Allmendinger +1400
Daniel Suarez +1500
Kyle Busch +1600
Chris Buescher +1700
Michael McDowell +2100
Ross Chastain +2100
Alex Bowman +2600
Carson Hocevar +2900
Chase Briscoe +3100
Ty Gibbs +3400
Austin Cindric +3400
Ryan Blaney +4000
Ryan Truex +4500
Joey Logano +5000
Todd Gilliland +14000
Brad Keselowski +14000
Bubba Wallace +14000
Justin Haley +19000
Ryan Preece +19000
Noah Gragson +19000
Austin Dillon +19000
Cole Custer +21000
Zane Smith +21000
Josh Berry +25000
Erik Jones +25000
Riley Herbst +25000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +34000
John Hunter Nemechek +34000
Katherine Legge +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
NASCAR Picks: Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City Odds and Best Bets
Chris Buescher Top 5 (+225)
There’s nobody that you can find good value on this week who delivers more than Chris Buescher does on road courses in the NextGen era. In the 16 NextGen road course starts, Buescher leads all drivers with an average finish of 7.9. In only one of those 16 starts has Buescher finished worse than 11th. That’s when he had a horrible (I say sarcastically) finish of 17th at the Roval last fall. That was a few weeks after his epic duel with Shane Van Gisbergen, whom he out wheeled to claim victory at Watkins Glen. What’s even more impressive about Buescher’s road course prowess. He has a worst finish of 21st in his last 33 starts dating back to June of 2017. Buescher always finds a way to be around, and that’s what I’m looking for. Tune into the NASCAR Gambling Podcast to hear me talk about betting his car lift, but his top five at this number is too good to pass on.
Ty Gibbs Top 10 (+110)
I have a soft spot for Ty Gibbs on road courses after cashing a huge ticket on him in his first career Xfinity Series start, where he won at the Daytona Road Course. It’s been an up-and-down career for Gibbs in the Cup Series through his first 100+ starts. But I still have faith in the kid. He’s coming off a great performance at Michigan last week that landed him a third-place finish. His last few road course starts weren’t great results, including a 34th-place finish at COTA in the only road course race this season. But he showed flashes of what he’s capable of doing at road courses late in 2023 and early in 2024. Where he had a stretch of three top-five finishes in a row. Five of his last 10 road course starts have been top 12 finishes. All we need him to do this week is finish top 10.
William Byron Top Chevy (+550) and to Win (+900)
When William Byron gets to the end of a road course race, he’s in contention to win it lately. He had a few rough faces last season at Watkins Glen and Sonoma, where he finished 34th & 30th, respectively. But if you take those out, he’s finished top three in five straight road course races. That includes wins at COTA in 2024 and Watkins Glen in 2023. Byron is one of the best and most underrated top-tier road course drivers. Going up against Shane Van Gisbergen and Kyle Larson in this category can be scary. But he’s beaten SVG in three of the last four road courses they’ve competed in together. Against Larson, it’s four of the last seven. Taking him top Chevy still allows a Tyler Reddick, Christoper Bell, or Chris Buescher to win this race, and you can still cash the ticket. I also love betting on Byron to win at 9/1 for all the same reasons.
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