With the 2025 Stanley Cup Final underway, neutral fans will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s sensational series when the Florida Panthers edged out the Edmonton Oilers 4-3. Of course, Oilers fans will be hoping for a reverse of that outcome, whereas Panthers fans will hope a win cements the team’s legacy as the dominant force in the NHL of the 2020s so far.
Nonetheless, bettors will seek to find value across the Stanley Cup odds 2025 markets. Beyond betting on the winner, there are numerous interesting markets, and one that is interesting to look at from a statistical perspective is the series total games. It’s a tough market to predict with certainty, but it’s not without merit. One key to finding betting edges is understanding how often each outcome occurs, and it’s always worth basing such props bet on historical data.
Stats show the frequency of outcomes.
The Stanley Cup Final expanded to 7 games in 1939, and here’s a breakdown of the frequency of each scoreline:
4-0 – 20 times
4-1 – 21 times
4-2 – 26 times
4-3 – 18 times
A couple of things are immediately apparent about that data. First, 4-2 is the most common Stanley Cup Final series scoreline. Secondly, that sweeps are more common than 7-game thrillers. Finally, it is relatively consistent across each outcome, give or take a few percentage points each way.
The odds for the 2025 Stanley Cup Final series total games are 4-0 +600, 4-1 +200, 4-2 +200, and 4-3 +270. Logically, if you were looking at those two data sets alone (the odds and the historical precedence), you would consider the 4-0 at +600 as the value bet, given the betting odds are inflated compared to the frequency of the event happening. However, it is a good example of how data can be misleading without more context.
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Recent trends point to longer series.
First, we know that a 4-0 whitewash is unlikely between two evenly matched teams. Second, and perhaps more importantly, we must consider recent trends, and it should be understood that, despite representing almost a quarter of Stanley Cup outcomes (23.53%), a finals series hasn’t seen a 4-0 outcome since 1998. If we look at the last 20 years, the data says 4-2 (45% of games), 4-3 (30%), and 4-1 (25%). The fact that 75% of series go to 6 or 7 games offers some food for thought.
Earlier, we mentioned that this type of bet is interesting, not that it is the route to go down if you are betting on the Stanley Cup Final. Some bettors will attempt to raise the odds by looking at series correct score markets, for example, Oilers 4-2 (+550). Yet, again, it can be not easy to parse that out with statistics. The one takeaway we have, however, is that recent trends point to longer, hard-fought series, especially between elite, evenly matched teams like Florida and Edmonton.
