NASCAR heads to the Irish Hills this weekend to take on the monstrous Michigan International Speedway. The 2.0-mile D-shaped oval is the largest oval on the circuit that doesn’t use a tapered spacer (or restrictor plate). Let’s look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Firekeepers Casio 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
NASCAR’s stretch of intermediate-sized race tracks continues. With the exception of the All-Star race at North Wilkesboro, the last four races have all been on intermediate-sized tracks, and all have some takeaways that can be used at Michigan. Kansas Speedway is the closest comparison track, Ryan at IFantasyRacing.com refers to Kansas as “Mini Michigan.”
NASCAR Picks: Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Kyle Larson +600
Denny Hamlin +600
Ryan Blaney +800
Tyler Reddick +800
William Byron +900
Christopher Bell +1000
Joey Logano +1500
Chase Elliott +1600
Carson Hocevar +1800
Ross Chastain +2000
Chase Briscoe +2000
Kyle Busch +2200
Chris Buescher +2400
Bubba Wallace +2600
Brad Keselowski +3000
Josh Berry +3100
Alex Bowman +3400
Austin Cindric +4000
Ty Gibbs +4200
Erik Jones +5000
Ryan Preece +5500
Daniel Suarez +10000
Austin Dillon +12000
Zane Smith +12000
Michael McDowell +12000
AJ Allmendinger +14000
Noah Gragson +16000
John Hunter Nemechek +19000
Shane Van Gisbergen +21000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +21000
Justin Haley +25000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Cole Custer +34000
Ty Dillon +34000
Riley Herbst +34000
Cody Ware +42000
NASCAR Picks: Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Denny Hamlin Top 5 (-110)
It’s hard to go against Hamlin right now. If you just look at his results in this stretch of intermediate races, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Hamlin has had fast cars in each race but ran into trouble out of his control. Mechanical issues in Texas and Kansas, followed by the team not getting fuel in the car in Charlotte.
We saw last week what it looks like when they don’t have issues. He led 79 laps and scored a third-place finish. Hamlin will have a good car this week. He’s finished top five in two of three NextGen races and top six in six of the last seven races at the track. A top-five bet means he doesn’t have to win and we miss out on getting paid because he finishes third again. If what Hamlin can’t control goes smoothly, the veteran is reliable and should be a top-five car.
Erik Jones Top 10 (+300)
Rinse and repeat. I gave this bet out last week at 6/1 for Nashville. It was an easy cash as Jones was a top 10 driver most of the race and ran in the top five for a while as well, ultimately finishing seventh. His team Legacy Motor Club has shown tremendous speed between Jones and teammate John Hunter Nemechek lately. On top of the seventh last week Jones finished 13th at Charlotte and fifth at Texas. He showed speed at Kansas before an incident as well.
Erik Jones has been great at Michigan.
11.3 Next Gen Average Finish, with two top tens.
50% top 13 finish rate for his career.
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) June 2, 2025
Like Nashville Jones has a good track history here at his home track as well. The Byron, Michigan native is two for three in the NextGen era finishing in the top 10. Last season was a 16th-place finish in the year where Legacy had their biggest struggles. Expect Jones and teammate Nemechek to be fast again this weekend. I’ll also be betting Jones top finishing Toyota.
NASCAR Picks: Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Josh Berry Top Finishing Ford (+800)
The top Ford market continues to be a good market to target. Blaney showed out last week at Nashville, but week to week there are several Fords who can top the market. In fact, the last time a Ford driver took top Ford back-to-back weeks was at the beginning of April at Darlington and Bristol.
Berry has shown immense and surprising speed on intermediates this season. He stormed onto the scene winning at Las Vegas and then was leading at Texas when he spun out. I was at the race in Kansas and besides Hamlin who went out early, Berry may have been the only one who had the speed to keep up with Larson. If not for the penalty on pit road it may have been a race. I’m watching for Berry to show up with that speed again this week. I also like his outright at 31/1.
William Byron to Win (+900)
Byron has had speed in his Hendrick Motorsports #24 car all season. Between Charlotte and Darlington, two intermediate tracks Byron led 526 laps. In both races, Byron finished in second place. He’s coming off a fifth-place finish last week at Nashville and that second at Charlotte. The Daytona 500 champ has been so close to his second win of the year, he’s looking to finish one spot better than his second place last here at Michigan.
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