The 2025 NBA Finals are here, featuring the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. This matchup brings together two teams with very different journeys but a shared hunger for the championship. The Thunder, the top seed in the West, have been dominant all season. The Pacers, a No. 4 seed from the East, have ridden a wave of momentum through the playoffs. Here is a comprehensive preview, including series odds and predictions.
2024-25 NBA Finals Preview, Odds & Predictions
How They Got Here
The Thunder finished the regular season with the NBA’s best record at 68-14. They swept through the playoffs, eliminating the Memphis Grizzlies, then surviving a tough seven-game battle with the Denver Nuggets, and finally dispatching the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games. Oklahoma City has looked like a juggernaut, setting records for point differential and double-digit wins.
Indiana’s path was less predictable. The Pacers finished 50-32 and entered the postseason as underdogs. They upset the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, then toppled the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers, and finally outlasted the New York Knicks in six games. The Pacers have thrived on team chemistry and timely performances from their stars.
2024-25 NBA Finals Preview, Odds & Predictions
Key Players and Matchups
Thunder:
– Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is the engine of Oklahoma City’s offense. He scored 45 points in a regular season win over Indiana and has been unstoppable throughout the playoffs
– Chet Holmgren anchors the defense and provides a unique challenge with his shot-blocking and floor spacing.
– Jalen Williams add scoring and playmaking, making the Thunder a balanced threat.
Pacers:
– Tyrese Haliburton is the floor general, averaging double-digit assists and controlling the pace. He had a triple-double in the Eastern Conference Finals and is the key to Indiana’s offense.
– Myles Turner will be crucial inside, especially if matched up against Holmgren. His ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim could swing games.
– Bennedict Mathurin and the Pacers’ supporting cast must step up, especially on defense and in transition.
Additionally, the Thunder won both regular season matchups against the Pacers, including a 120-114 victory in Indiana where SGA dominated and Haliburton struggled. Turnovers and late-game execution favored Oklahoma City in those contests.
2024-25 NBA Finals Preview, Odds & Predictions
Tactical Storylines
This series is a classic clash of styles. The Pacers play fast, ranking among the league’s best in pace and transition offense. Haliburton orchestrates a free-flowing attack, looking to get teammates involved and create open shots.
The Thunder, meanwhile, are elite defensively and boast a deep, versatile roster. They can switch on defense, protect the paint, and force turnovers. Offensively, they are efficient and can score from all three levels
Indiana’s best chance is to push the tempo and hit threes. They need to avoid turnovers, as Oklahoma City thrives on fast-break opportunities. The Pacers’ role players, especially shooters like Bennedict Mathurin, must be ready to capitalize on open looks.
For the Thunder, the focus will be on containing Haliburton and dominating the glass. If SGA continues his MVP-level play and Holmgren controls the paint, Oklahoma City will be tough to beat.
2024-24 NBA Finals Preview, Odds & Predictions
Odds
Oddsmakers see the Thunder as overwhelming favorites. According to BetMGM and FanDuel, Oklahoma City is listed at -700 to -750 to win the series, while the Pacers are underdogs at +500 to +530. This gives the Thunder an implied probability of about 87-88% to win the title.
Series outcome odds reflect this disparity:
The Thunder sweep (4-0): +320
Thunder in five games (4-1): +210
The Thunder in six (4-2): +410
Thunder in seven (4-3): +490
Pacers in any scenario: +1120 or longer
2024-25 NBA Finals Preview, Odds & Predictions
Prediction
The Pacers have been a great story, overcoming the odds and proving doubters wrong. Haliburton’s playmaking and the team’s resilience have carried them far. However, the Thunder’s combination of elite defense, star power, and depth is likely too much for Indiana to handle.
Oklahoma City’s regular season dominance and head-to-head success against Indiana point toward a decisive series. The Pacers may steal a game at home, but the Thunder’s defense and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance should prevail.
Prediction: The Thunder win the NBA Finals in five games, 4-1 at +210. SGA will likely be named Finals MVP, capping off a historic season for Oklahoma City.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 NBA Finals promise exciting basketball, but the Thunder enter as the clear favorites. The Pacers will fight, but the odds and the matchups favor Oklahoma City’s first championship since moving to OKC.
