The NFL season is 99 days away. Which means you only have 99 more days to get in your NFL futures bets! NFL Futures are a fun way to bet the NFL and have a year-long sweat! I’ve already placed quite a few, and these are some of my favorite longshot NFL futures bets!
Longshot NFL Futures And Why They Could Hit
Last Winless Team – Giants (+550)
For my first longshot NFL futures bet, I’m taking the last winless team to be the Giants. I actually think the last winless team will come down to two teams, and they play each other in Week 5. The Giants’ defense should be decent, though they’ll need it to ramp up quickly with the start of their schedule.
The offense is full of question marks, primarily on who will start at quarterback and if they can find success early on. The Giants’ first three matchups are pretty tough. They open the season with two divisional games at the Commanders and at the Cowboys. Starting the season with two games on the road isn’t ideal.
It doesn’t get easier at home as the Giants play the Chiefs and then the Chargers. This brings us to the Week 5 showdown that I think could be two winless teams in the Giants and the Saints. This game is in New Orleans, which isn’t ideal for the Giants after facing the Chiefs and Chargers.
At this point, if we’re still in it with our longshot bet, we can either cash out, hedge, or let it ride. I’ll probably hedge a little, but primarily let it ride. If the Giants lose, their season doesn’t magically get easier. They face the Eagles, the Broncos, and the Eagles again in their next three games.
Most Passing Yards – Dak Prescott (+1400)
I know it’s usually our job as SGPN employees to hate on the Dallas Cowboys. I’m certainly not saying they’re going to win the “NFC Beast” division. However, I do think it’s time for Dak Prescott to show he can still ball out. He has the massive contract. He has the receivers now. It’s time to prove he’s worth it.
CeeDee Lamb has been one of the best receivers in the league for the past handful of years. The biggest problem is that the Cowboys have not had a very reliable receiver to play second-fiddle to him. They traded a third-round pick to the Steelers to get George Pickens.
Lamb has already said that there’s no wide receiver 1A, 1B, with him and Pickens. Instead, he said they are both wide receiver ones. I tend to agree with him. The defenses are going to have trouble covering both of these guys. Tight end Jake Ferguson is also a nice receiving threat.
Prescott hasn’t been in the top-five in passing for several years now, however, I think this is the year he throws for over 5,000 yards. He got close back in 2019 when he threw for 4,902 yards. That was while throwing to guys like Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Lamb and Pickens far exceed the talent of those two. Give me Prescott to have the most passing yards at +1400 for one of my longshot NFL futures bets.
Regular Season MVP (x2) – Joe Burrow (+650) / Caleb Williams (+2800)
For this longshot NFL Futures bet, I actually have two to sprinkle a little on. The bet is for who will win the MVP for the regular season. You may see the headline of this one already and think I’m being a homer. I probably am being a homer. That’s why I’m giving out the more realistic one. However, I still like sprinkling a little on the last.
I wanted to pick Josh Allen at +600 this year. However, he just won last year, and repeat winners are very rare. It’s not unheard of, but it seems that the voting committee likes to try to keep it fresh. Therefore, I’m taking Joe Burrow at +650.
I know Burrow and his receivers are signed through at least the next three years. However, with the money they spent to sign them, it feels like a make-or-break year. They continue to have disappointing season after disappointing season, and this could be the one they finally make some noise.
Do I expect them to win it all? No. However, I do think they’ll be in the conversation and be pushing for a number one seed, especially with the AFC North feeling a little weaker this year. Trey Hendrickson also still wants a new deal. That has me concerned about the longevity of this team’s success.
I also can’t help but sprinkle a little on Caleb Williams. If the Bears make a massive jump and make the playoffs this year under new head coach Ben Johnson, it will be because of Williams’ play. The Bears upgraded their offensive line to give Williams more protection. They also added Luther Burden and Coleston Loveland as pass-catching weapons for Caleb. I don’t mind sprinkling a little on him at +2800.
Coach of The Year – Jim Harbaugh (+1800)
It’s possible the LA Chargers did too well last year for Jim Harbaugh to be considered for coach of the year. This is an often narrative-based award where a coach really turns a franchise around in one season. However, hear me out on why I like him to win this year.
The current favorites are Mike Vrabel (+600) and Ben Johnson (+600). This makes sense as they’re both entering their first year and taking over a team that had a poor record last year. This fits the narrative of a coach turning a team around. Next up are Liam Coen and Sean Payton, both at +1400. Payton is in a similar situation to Harbaugh, except the Broncos’ past handful of years have been slightly more difficult.
Next, at +1800, are Matt Lafeluer, Dave Canales, Aaron Glenn, Pete Carroll, and Jim Harbaugh. The Chiefs had another dominant year last year at 15-2. It’s hard to catch a team that’s only lost two games. However, I think you could see a little negative regression in their record this year. I’m not saying they’re going to be a bad team. However, I do think they could lose more than two games.
The Chargers finished 11-6 last year. It was a really solid year in Harbaugh’s first year coaching the team. Now they enter the second year in his system with everybody feeling more comfortable. Plus, they made some really nice additions in the free agency and the draft. I think they will be better than last year. If they can squeak out 12-13 wins and we see the Chiefs lose a few more games, the Chargers could be pushing the Chiefs for the division lead.
If the Chargers can win this division by defeating the Chiefs, then it’ll be hard not to consider Harbaugh for the coach of the year. I think they match up well against the Chiefs. They have the defense to contain Mahomes and Co., and they have the offense to run over them.
AFC Championship Exact Result – Bills to Beat Ravens (+1600)
You’re going to notice I’m big on the Bills this year. I think this is the year they finally end the drought and make the Super Bowl. For those unfamiliar, the Bills have made four Super Bowls, back in the 90s, and lost all four. They have yet to win one and haven’t been back since 1994.
Josh Allen is too talented not to make the Super Bowl. This feels like the year after they were so close the past couple of years. You’ll notice I excluded the Bengals, despite thinking Burrow could win the MVP. I also excluded the Chiefs. I think both of them will lose to these two teams, the Bills and the Ravens.
That will set up an AFC Championship of the Bills against the Ravens, and with the game on the line, I’m trusting Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson. The current odds for the Bills to beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship are +1600. I’ll see you in January when we cash this ticket. I accept thanks in gratitude, subscriptions to Old-Fashioned Football, or bottles of whiskey.
Super Bowl Exact Result – Bills To Beat Eagles (+3000)
Not to beat a dead horse, but I’m really on the Bills this year. I already told you I think this is their year. So the next question would be, who will they face in the Super Bowl? Last year, the Eagles dominated the majority of the teams they played, made the Super Bowl, and dominated the Chiefs.
I don’t think they’re going to take many steps back. The NFC may seem wide open, but once it comes to the playoffs, the non-banned Tush Push and the Eagles’ ability to run the ball and play strong defense in the cold will pay off. I see them making another Super Bowl.
However, this time I think they’ll see a different result. I think Josh Allen will out-duel Jalen Hurts, and the Bills defense will help slow the rushing attack of both Saquon Barkley and Hurts. The Bills will finally hoist the Lombardi Trophy up in the air, and we’ll cash our +3000 longshot NFL futures ticket.
