Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for May 18.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for May 18. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – May 18
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox
First Pitch – 1:35 pm EST
Fenway Park – Boston, MA
Broadcast – MLB TV
Sure, these two teams hammered the ball out of the park early and often on Saturday, but I still like the NRFI on Sunday. The reason is that the pitching matchup is far better here.
In the top of the first, we get Brayan Bello on the bump. He’s got a 2.33 ERA on the year and has allowed more than two earned runs just once on the season. Meanwhile, he’s kept opponents to one or less runs in three of his five starts. Keep the Braves quiet is pretty easy lately as well. Despite putting up three quick runs yesterday, they still only average 0.39 runs per game in the first. That’s good enough for 22nd in the majors.
The Red Sox have been a bit better out of the gate on the season, but the top of their order has been slow going lately. That’s going to be an even bigger problem with the way Spencer Schwellenbach has been pitching as of late. He’s allowed two total earned runs over his last two starts (13.0 innings). Most of the trouble he’s gotten into this year has been due to walks. With the Red Sox being a team that doesn’t walk much, I think Schwellenbach slams the door on the NRFI in this one.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for May 18: No (-110)
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
First Pitch – 2:10 pm EST
American Family Field – Wilwaukee, WI
Broadcast – MLB TV
The top of the first sees the Twins trying to upset our next NRFI bid against Freddy Peralta. Peralta had a bit of a tough time last time out against the Gaurdians, but that was a mere blip on what has been a solid season. The start only jumped his ERA up to 2.66 on the year and he’s struck out 52 batters in just 50.2 innings. Minnesota is just a middle of the pack team when it comes to scoring runs – by just about any metric you look at. With that fact, Peralta should get us the first three easy.
In the bottom of the inning, we might have to sweat it out a little. The Brewers are a pretty slow starting team – averaging 0.43 first inning runs per game. That figure is good enough for 18th in the majors. It also gives me a little faith in the Twins’ rookie starter. Zebby Matthews may not have had great numbers last year in his limited action, but he has stuff that makes him a top prospect. On top of that, even though he got roughed up a bit last year, he was decent early. He kept the first inning clean in more than half of his starts.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for May 18: No (-135)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI picks for May 18, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
