Western Conference Playoff Preview, Analysis, & Best Bets
The seeding and fate of some of these teams came down to the last game of the day in overtime. The daily shuffle of teams 3-10 was must-watch television since the all-star break. This sets up what I think will be one of the best iterations of the playoffs in this conference in quite some time. Storylines are all over every series but that is not why we are here. Winning money is why we are here and that is what we will try to do with these picks and analyses,
OKC Thunder (1) vs (8) Memphis Grizzlies
How Do the Thunder Win?
They have been on a mission all year and I expect that to continue here. Memphis comes in banged up and remains not being able to beat any elite teams. OKC’s space, depth, and shot-making will make this a quick series. Memphis defensively does not have any perimeter defenders now that Wells is out for the year. They also are terrible with their drive and kick defense – which is a strength of OKC on offense.
Memphis is top-heavy but the OKC defense is well equipped to defend their top three. OKC is the best turnover defense in the league and guess who has turnover issues? Yes, Memphis. There are multiple paths to victory for OKC which is difficult to prepare for and even more difficult to stop. I do not see a lack of focus to start and expect OKC to do what they’ve done all year – dominate.
How Do the Grizzlies Win?
If losing by an average of 18 points and not beating an above-average team since January does not motivate you, I don’t know what will. Memphis will need to play as close to perfect as you can. They are extremely top-heavy and their superstar point guard has a banged-up ankle. Assuming he is close to 100%, Ja is going to need to be as special as he has ever been. He’ll be facing the best defense in the NBA and a potential Defensive Player Of The Year in Lou Dort – so it is an uphill battle that would be tough even if he was fully healthy.
Outside of their big three, guys like Aldama, Pipper Jr, and a combination of other guys need to step up. OKC is so deep and versatile, that Memphis will need some big games from those guys on top of their big three performing at a high level. Defensively they will need to try and have Dort and Jalen Williams beat them. Easier said than done but if they allow SGA to get going and then those guys are knocking shots down – it could get ugly fast.
Who Wins? Why?
There is not a metric or matchup I can point to that says Memphis has an advantage. This also is likely to be the easiest series the Thunder have, so I expect them to approach this with an aggressive mindset and make it as quick as possible. OKC has not lost to Memphis since 2022 and seven of the nine games were double-digit wins. One game may be a tough ask for a Memphis team who stumbled to the finish line BUT I think Ja is so special and can win you at least one.
Best Bet: OKC 4-1 (+195)
Houston Rockets (2) vs (7) Golden State Warriors
The constant disrespect of Houston has been evident throughout the year. The job that Ime has done with this group has been amazing but overlooked to a certain degree. Look no further than this series price. The warriors opened close to -200 and were immediately bet down – which I agree with (spoiler). Experience will be pointed to a ton if you like the Warriors, but let us not forget that styles (matchups) make fights and Houston has a more consistent style.
How Do the Rockets Win?
Jalen Green and Fred Van Vleet must be better. They have not fared well against the Warriors this year and as the lead guards, they need to set the tone. The youth does not bother me because of the blend of veterans and the head coach who all have experience. I trust Ime to the gameplan and scheme up defenses to bother the Warriors. They are the bigger, more physical, deeper team which allows them the ability to employ numerous gameplans.
Consistency and composure are vital for the young Rockets, especially on offense. They are going to dominate the glass but they have to convert offensively. The Warriors struggled against Memphis but the Grizzlies could not capitalize on a lot of those which led to their demise. Sengun, Adams, and Smith are going to have to consistently convert those second-chance points – which limits the Warriors in transition.
How Do the Warriors Win?
Simple question, have Jimmy and Steph play like they did against Memphis. When those guys are aggressive and playing off one another, it makes them that much more difficult to stop. Despite that greatness, they almost lost that game to Memphis. This brings me to the most critical key to the Warriors’ winning – the play of Podziemski, Hield, and Post.
The most critical role player is going to be Post. The Rockets’ ability to rebound and play multiple big men – Warriors need Post to use his size and not only space the floor but rebound and protect the rim. Can he handle the toughness and physicality of Houston is something I question but he is going to play a pivotal role. The depth pieces are going to have to be consistent and keep them within range so the closers can close. If they can do that – the Warriors will move on.
Who Wins? Why?
I do not like the disrespect of the Rockets. The depth and defense will propel them to win this series. Warriors are a two-man show and while those two are great – the Rockets have the requisite defenders to throw at them. Not just one or two players can limit Jimmy and Steph, so I expect both to see three to four different defenders.
The lack of consistent offense by the Rockets is concerning but I believe they can thrive on second-chance points and in transition off turnovers. Jimmy and Steph played lights out against Memphis and barely held on – that is telling for the rest of the Warriors roster. Houston will be tougher, more physical and much better on defense. I see this being a long series that favors the deeper team.
Bet: Rockets (+155)
L.A. Lakers (3) vs (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
Remember those storylines mentioned in the open? This series is loaded with them on both sides. The Laker playoff debut for JJ Redick and Luka Doncic mixed in with the return of Julius Randle to where he was drafted are just a few. Wolves come in going 18-8 down the stretch while Lakers were 21-13 since the blockbuster trade. There could likely be a book written about the different ways this series plays out but let us minimize that to a few hundred words.
How Do the Lakers Win?
The Lakers will need to load up on bug spray if they want to win this series. Ant-Man will be ready for the bright lights and the way the Wolves ended the season, his teammates’ confidence is through the roof. The size is the obvious advantage the Wolves have over the Lakers but can they capitalize? Gobert and Randle do not have a ton of post-season success and I do not think they can string together consistent stretches against the defensive scheme that JJ is going to dial-up.
The biggest advantage the Lakers have in this series and moving forward is their third option is better than any other third option. Austin Reaves has been playing at a borderline All-NBA level and has been through some playoff wars already. He will be ready to go and likely the deciding factor in this series.
Defensively the Lakers need to be able to run the Wolves off the three-point line and force them into tough twos. Expect to see a lot of blitzing of Edwards and maybe even some zone when they see a specific lineup. I respect the Wolves but I do not think they will have enough to hang – especially with Lebron being able to coast a bit on both ends and pick his spots. Protect the three-point line, gang rebound, and continue to get to the free-throw line. Those are key elements in what will propel the Lakers to the next round.
How Do the T’Wolves Win?
Their biggest advantage is their size and paint finishing. Minnesota can exploit that with their rotation of Gobert and Reid. I would think that the Wolves staff would use more Reid than Gobert in this series due to Reid’s ability to stretch the floor and switch on to Luka and Reaves.
This may not be a series for Conley either due to his size and lack of shot-making. The Lakers have incredible size on the perimeter and the Lakers will matchup-hunt Conley and force him to guard Luka or Lebron in the post. That means more Alexander-Walker, who has played well for them all year.
Aggression is usually the way the Wolves play but they need to be careful with how well the Lakers get to the free-throw line. They must find the happy median of being able to defend aggressively without fouling. Offensively they need Randle to play huge. Historically he has not been good in the playoffs and this matchup does not favor him.
Along with Randle, the bench has to be productive on a nightly basis. Throughout the season, when they are good and can take pressure off of Edwards – they get good results. If they can be consistent in this series, they could spoil the Lakers championship aspirations
Who Wins? Why?
I like the Lakers in this one. I trust their ancillary pieces more than the Wolves. The stars are going to be the stars – the Lakers have more of those as well, but who do you trust after Edwards? Even with Edwards being great, it still may be tough for the Wolves to overcome the depth and prowess of the Lakers.
The Lakers have 8-9 guys who can rotate and impact the game. A couple of Wolves players are not ideal for this matchup – which is an advantage Lakers throughout the series. They will be able to play a multitude of lineups which could force the Wolves into playing lineups they have not played much this year. It will be tough but I like the Lakers’ depth and top-end stars to send them to the second round.
Best Bet: Lakers 4-2 (+475)
Denver Nuggets (4) vs (5) L.A Clippers
Not many teams ended their season as hot as the Clippers. There were also not many teams that ended their season as awkwardly as the Nuggets. This is one of the more intriguing coin-flip types of series of the entire playoffs. I think someone can make compelling cases for both sides and I would not be shocked by any result.
Health questions on each side add even more intrigue to the series and put more on the secondary players. Which unit can play the best while the stars do what they do will be a big deciding factor of the series.
How Do the Nuggets Win?
How healthy is Jamal Murray? Will the coaching staff be ready? Those are two questions that if you can answer correctly, you should have a better gauge on the series outcome. Adleman has been highly viewed as a top assistant for quite some time BUT sliding down to the head coach seat is different. Jokic is going to be great – I think we can all agree to that. How much can Braun, Gordon, and MPJ give you? Clippers supporting cast has been consistent all season and to win this series, Denver’s cast has to outduel them.
Denver will need to play with a little more pace as the Clippers’ halfcourt defense is elite. They rank top three in points per play allowed in the halfcourt. By pushing the pace, it allows Braun, Westbrook, and Gordon to use their athleticism to get downhill versus trying to score on the set defense of the Clippers.
The defense has been the Nuggets’ weakness all year. They are 21st in defensive rating and have had issues defending in space and at the rim. The Clippers run a heavy dose of isolation offense with Harden and Kawhi – so the Nuggets will need to make those guys see a crowd and force others to beat them.
The homecourt plays a big advantage which is all they have to do here but the non-Jokic minutes and defense have to be better. I’ll be interested to see if Denver plays more Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther to help the defense. Both guys are young, athletic, and have the ability to defend on the perimeter. The bench needs to step up along with Murray remaining healthy for the Nuggets to have a shot to win this series,
How Do the Clippers Win?
After Jokic, it can be debated that the next three best players are on the Clippers side. The depth and coaching are another advantage – while also having the continuity that propelled them into the five seed. Nobody can stop Jokic but it seems the best way to handle him is to turn him into strictly a scorer. Clippers can do that with Zubac and they do not have to double – which cuts off the assists and wide-open looks for the shooters.
Denver is top three in corner three-point% because of those doubles that Joker sees. Clipper’s ability to play Joker one-on-one diminishes that strength and keeps the others out of rhythm. Constant ball pressure could lead to some live ball turnovers – Clippers are top 8 in turnover% defense and Denver turns the ball over quite a bit. The Clippers have a multitude of on-ball defenders which could give the Nuggets some issues
I know one of the strategies is to put Joker in every pick and roll but I think they should not lean into that so heavily. There are mismatches all over the floor for the Clippers with the lack of consistent on-ball defenders. Harden should carve them up in pick-and-roll sets but his ability to play off-ball could be big here as well.
Who Wins? Why?
Too many questions left unanswered on the Nuggets’ side – I like the Clippers to advance. I understand the Kawhi injury risk and the history is not in our favor. That is just a risk I will take with how well the Clippers have been playing down the stretch. Matchup-wise it favors them on every level – the personnel is perfect to defend Joker and also attack him on the defensive end.
The Clippers are not a team that plays with a lot of pace but I would not be shocked to see them run a bit here. Denver is one of the worst transition defenses in the league and Harden thrives in space. The starters may not run a lot but when the bench comes in, I can see them trying to exploit Denver in transition.
Top to bottom the Clippers are the better team but Denver has the best player. It surely will not be easy but I trust Lue and Jeff Van Gundy to go in with a gameplan and adjust better throughout the series. Fingers crossed for Kawhi’s health as we take the Clippers to move on.
Best Bet: Series Winner: Clippers (-110)
