Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first bucket props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first bucket bets for March 28. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first bucket props for March 28.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Bucket Props – March 28
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Barclays Center – Brooklyn, NY
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Clippers are an easy team to get a read on – they precisely league average across the board on the early game action. They are exactly 50.0% when it comes to winning the tip, and exactly 50.0% when it comes to scoring the first bucket. As a result, this play is far more of a fade of the Nets, than it is a play on the Clippers. The Nets are just 44.4% on the first bucket, which comes out to 24th in the NBA. They’re also 24th in the league at obtaining the first possession with an even lower success rate (41.7%). With those leads, the Clippers should comfortably get that first score.
Norman Powell is the obvious answer here, being that he gets the vast majority of the early attempts for the Clippers. However, I don’t really want to pay the chalk prices here on a first bucket bet – especially as low as his number is. Instead, I’m going down ballot on a Kris Dunn play. He’s taken one of the team’s first three shots in two of the last three games. That includes taking the first shot in one of those. That’s enough volume to like the value on this one.
First Bucket Bet for March 28: Kris Dunn (TBD)
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI
Broadcast – NBA TV
In the first game here, we were all about the fade. In this game, we feel comfortable tailing the home squad. The Bucks have consistently been one of the best teams in the league when it comes to the first bucket. They currently rank 4th in the NBA in first bucket success rate at 57.5%. They also rank highly when it comes to winning the tip. Their 58.9% tip win rate puts them in 7th place overall. Both of those come in over a dozen percentage points over the Knicks and should put them in great position to score first.
Only one player on the Bucks has appeared in the first three shots of the shot log in each of the last three games. That player is Kyle Kuzma. He accounts for 44.4% of all of those shots in that span. That includes taking the first shot in one of those games and scoring the first bucket on that attempt. There’s a lot to like about that volume, so we’ll let it ride here on Friday.
First Bucket Bet for March 28: Kyle Kuzma (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first bucket bets for March 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
