While the UFC continues to be the king when it comes to MMA and gambling, there is more MMA than ever to bet on now. Promotions all over the world as well as domestic ones are showing up in sportsbooks. The advantage here is that the data is usually quite a bit less sharp than when you’re making MMA predictions for the UFC. So we’ve decided to dig into some each week to get you started on your regional MMA journey. This week we stay stateside for LFA 204 from Mashantucket, Connecticut for our regional MMA pick.
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MMA Regional Pick of the Week: LFA 204
LFA Light Heavyweight Fight: Justin Sumter vs Luis Henrique Barbosa
Card Start Time: Saturday (3/22), 9:00pm EST (UFC Fight Pass)
Justin Sumter has a bit of hype behind him after scoring three straight first round submission victories. Those victories are also over some pretty impressive in a pair of UFC veterans and a Contender Series veteran. However, while the results are there, I think this is a nightmare matchup for him.
The first big reason – and I do mean big – is the size issue. Sumter has mostly fough at middleweight recently and throughout his career. He was beaten for his CES title by UFC welterweight Billy Goff coming up in weight because he couldn’t get the grappling going. Now he’ll fight Henrique, who spent a great deal of his career at heavyweight. He stuffed takedowns in the UFC from some high level wrestlers and got some of his own as well.
The size descrepancy is just too much for Sumter here. Plus, I think people are sleeping on the submission skills of Henrique. As a result, I love the line here on Henrique.
LFA 204 Pick: Luis Henrique Barbosa ML (-100)
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