The 2025 March Madness tournament is upon us and you’re scrambling to figure out how to fill out that bracket. In your office pool last year, you got embarrassed by Michelle from accounting, who finished ahead of you solely by picking the teams with the friendliest looking mascots. You don’t want that to happen again, which means you need some help. Lucky for you, we put together some tips to make sure that you can beat out the new guy in HR who is choosing his favorite teams by his favorite vacation spots. Come check out these bracket tips and grab a pen!
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
7 Tips to Help Fill Out Your 2025 March Madness Bracket
Tip 1 – Don’t Get Cute With Your Winner
When filling out brackets, it’s perfectly normal to feel like you want to be a contrarian. It’s a lot easier to be the only one in the pool pulling for Iowa St., than to sweat out the other 50% that picked Duke alongside of you. However, in the modern era, there just isn’t a lot of variation when it comes to winners.
In the last 25 tournaments, the number one seeds have been dominant when it comes to cutting down the nets. Of those last 25 winners, 72% of them have had a #1 next to their name. That’s a trend that’s really not worth trying to buck. On top of that, there aren’t really many larger seeds that have managed to pull it off.
Of the remaining 28% who won without being a top seed, only two of them were from a seed higher than #3. Both of those were UCONN (a #7 in 2014, and a #4 in 2023). That’s probably more of an indicator that we’re underrating UCONN that anything else.
For Your Consideration: This year’s #1 seeds – Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida. Odds are the winner will be one of these four teams.
Tip 2 – Do Get Cute with Your Final 4
While number one seeds are getting all the love in the championship game, don’t get caught playing chalk to the end. If you’re going to differentiate yourself from all the other people with Houston on the championship line, you need to get crafty with the Final 4. It’s easy to just pencil all the favorites down so you don’t miss, but it’s rare in the men’s tournament that they all get there.
In the last 25 years, there has only been three years that even three #1 seeds have made it to the Final 4 together. In two of those years they were joined by a relative longshot – #4 Ohio State in 1999 and #7 Michigan State in 2015. The year where there was a sweep was in 2008, and one of those teams had to vacate their accomplishments due to NCAA infractions.
That means we’ve almost seen as many seasons with no #1-seeds (2) as we have with three of them (3). And with all we know about how often the number one seed wins, that means we’ll need a motley supporting cast.
For Your Consideration: Take a look at #6 BYU, and #8 UCONN, both lower seeds that could make a run. St. Johns should also be closely watched given how good they’ve been as of late. All of those squads are extremely well coached and know how to score the ball.
Tip 3 – Use Rithmm
Rithmm is the number one place to go for data driven picks and props. They help you build your own models to win, or you can copy a model from the leaderboards. Whatever way you want to do it, they’ll help you make decisions based on data. That’ll keep you from panicking in the 10th hour when you don’t know who to pick.
Their success in 2024 is a perfect reason why you should check them out. Their percentage of winners was 39% higher than ESPN’s bracket challenge as a whole. Additionally, they predicted the Duquesne, Oakland and NC State victories – and even had NC State going to the Sweet 16.
Plus, you can get even more out of Rithmm by checking out their First Four Watch Party. They’ll also be giving away a $250 March Madness future. So check them out, win your pool, and win some money too.
Tip 4 – Stop Caring About Conference Tournaments
Once upon a time, we really cared about who won the Big East, SEC and ACC. It’s how we narrowed down who the best teams were. Plus, a lot of people thought it was the best way to gauge who is hot right not. However, in the most recent years, it couldn’t have mattered less.
Of the last 10 eventual NCAA champions, just three of them had won their conference tournament. Furthermore, half of them had not even made it to their conference finals – seeing five of them go out in the conference semifinals. The good teams rise to the top during the season, and those conference tournaments can be outliers.
Now, I know a lot of people will talk about 2024 ACC Tournament champion NC State’s unlikely run to the Final 4 and use that as a counter to this point. However, let’s instead use the six prior ACC champions as a case study. Of those previous ACC champs, just one of them made it out of the second round. That includes a Virginia squad in 2018, who became the first #1 seed to lose in the first round.
For Your Consideration: Don’t sleep on #2 Alabama who fell in the SEC semifinals. They seemed like a lock to be a #1-seed a month or so ago. Despite not playing as well doesn the stretch, they should be feared by their whole region.
Tip 5 – Use the 12/5 Upset
Yes, it’s become a cliche, but the 12/5 matchup in the first rounds is always one to circle. Since the expansion of the tournament, the #12-seed has a 55-101 record all time. That equates to a 35.3% win percentage all-time. This trend has not tapered off in recent years either.
In the past five tournaments, there have been eight upsets by #12-seeds. That is a 40.0% hit rate in that time, which is outpacing the all-time number. Additionally, there was only one of those years (2023) that didn’t see a single one.
So it may seem like a thing that all pundits overuse, but the fact of the matter is that it just works.
For Your Consideration: #12 UC San Diego and #12 Liberty are the most likely to turn some heads in the first round. UC San Diego will get a Michigan team that won the conference title (but we don’t care about that). Liberty meanwhile is 25-0 when their opponents fail to score 75 points. They’ll face Oregon who stayed under that number in three of their last four, with the only over being in overtime.
Tip 6 – Play-In Momentum is Real
When they first added the additional two play-in games, I thought it was a fruitless exercise. Those playing in that game seemed destined to get smoked in the next round. However that simply has not been the case.
Since it’s inception in 2011, we’ve had 13 tournaments. In all but one of those tournaments, a team that has played a first four game has gone on to win in the round 64. The success doesn’t end there either. Some of them have seen some pretty deep runs as well.
Five times, a first four team has made it to the Sweet 16, and twice we’ve seen a first four team make a run to the Final 4. We don’t necessarily advocate for predicting a deep run. but expect at least one more win.
For Your Consideration: Both #11 San Diego State and #11 Texas seem poised for a big of momentum. They’ll face a pair of teams in North Carolina and Xavier, who both struggled against quad 1 teams.
Tip 7 – Know Your Pool
If you’re filling out a bracket and trying to win the SGPN bracket pool with a winner take-all $2000, you are going to need to pick the little things right. You’ll need to find the 2023 Florida Atlantic or the 2021 Oral Roberts. However, if you’re just looking to take down an office pool or beat a couple of friends, you don’t have to go so hard in the paint.
In smaller pools, it is far more about not making the big mistake. It’s more about making sure you avoid the highly seeded team that makes an early exit than it is fine tuning your sleepers.
If you’d like even more info to help filling out your 2025 NCAA March Madness bracket, check out the College Experience. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
