The best month of any sport has delivered thus far as it always does. All conference champions have been crowned and we are ready for the path to the national championship. There was not a ton of parody in conference tournaments this year. Minimal bid thieves are in the field and 25 of the conference champions were either a one or two seed.
Will that dominance continue into the big dance? Or will Cinderella show up and go on a run? The best thing about those questions is we will know the answer rather quickly. This field is littered with great guard play, great coaches, and multiple double-digit seeds who can get to the Sweet 16. For my money, this is the most balanced and wide-open region in the tournament.
Let’s walk through the bracket together and see if we can find some value with a team or two. Always remember to shop around for the best odds when you are looking to enter the market. It is critical at this point of the season as each book has different liabilities that dictate pricing.
2025 March Madness Bracket West Region Best Bets and Predictions
Filling out a bracket and betting are two different approaches. Keep that in mind when you are filling out your bracket(s) while also putting bets into your account.
(1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk St
What Robert Jones has been to the Norfolk St program has been nothing short of sensational. This team has been one of the more down ones over the last handful of seasons but he still manages to get his guys back to the big dance. With that being said, this is where it ends.
Florida has been the best team in the country by my metrics over the last month or so. Their depth wears on you and they have ELITE guard play. This one should be over rather quickly, I would even lay the large number with Florida due to their depth pieces being able to come in and sustain momentum and a lead.
Pick: Florida -28.5
(8) UConn vs. (9) Oklahoma
By far this is the toughest game for me to pick, as most 8/9 matchups are. Huskies struggle defending the three, which the Sooners shoot at a solid 37% clip. As we all know, three-point variance can be the determining factor in this tournament. However, the Sooners struggle to defend the interior, which is advantageous for the Huskies. If they can efficiently attack the paint, it could open up the three-point shots for Ball and Karaban.
Huskies have no true point guard which does not haunt them hear as the Sooners do not apply a ton of heavy ball pressure. They have to contain Fears who is the type of player that can win a game like this and maybe another one with how deadly he is at all three levels. The Huskies must defend without fouling, something they do not do well. In the end, I think the Huskies squeeze by the Sooners but this one could be decided late and I trust Hurley to get it done.
Pick: UConn -4.5
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado St
I wanted to back both of these teams in the tournament but with my luck, of course, they play one another in the first round. If you have not been familiarized with Nique Clifford, make sure you are tuned into this game. Swiss army knife who can do it all on both ends of the floor. With that said, will that be enough to match the scoring machine on the other side in PJ Haggerty?
The health of Tyrese Hunter is a big key in this matchup also as he is a veteran player who can run the offense and take pressure off of Haggerty. They played well without him today but his absence would be critical here, especially on defense.
I love Nique Clifford but I love the guard play and how well Memphis has been playing down the stretch even more. The interior is going to be the deciding factor and Dain Dainja is a big-time player with experience who should feast in this matchup.
Pick: Memphis +2.5
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon
The best starting five (scoring-wise) in the nation. There is little to no depth on the roster which can be concerning in short turnarounds. This matchup is a good one for the Terps. There are two things you have to be able to do in March – shoot the three and take care of the basketball. Unfortunately for Grand Canyon, they lack those two key components.
Maryland’s defense could turn this one into a lop-sided affair if Grand Canyon is not careful. The issue for Grand Canyon is that if they fall behind by double digits, their offense and shooting are not good enough to get them back in the game. Maryland also does a great job of defending without fouling which takes away the strength of the Antelopes. They get to the line at a top-ten rate in the country but without that, how do they score? Terps roll into the second round.
Pick: Maryland -10.5
(6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake
Clash of two styles. Tigers want to play at a high-octane pace while Drake loves to play slowly and methodically. Whoever can play at their pace will move on, and I believe that will be Drake. Missouri comes in losers in five of their last seven and I am unsure they can win the type of game Drake is going to force them to play. The Bulldogs will need to clean up their turnovers and protect the interior. Missouri is a much bigger team and could try to exploit that weakness.
To counter that, I believe we see Drake play a ton of matchup zone mixed in with some 1-3-1. The Bulldogs crash the glass hard, play smart, and are well-balanced. They are not going to beat themselves and their style can frustrate a team like Missouri. They will limit the transition offense for the Tigers and force them to win in the halfcourt. I have Drake winning this convincingly and moving on to the second round.
Pick: Drake +6.5
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNCW
This is one of those games I will be taking the points with UNCW. The Seahawks are a physical team that rebounds, gets to the line, and has multiple lineups. The issue is that the Red Raiders also are a team that does all of those things at an even higher level. I will be interested to see how the Seahawks use their size, specifically with the small backcourt of Texas Tech. Donovan Newby is the type of guard who can put on a show on this stage along with a bevy of other Seahawks.
JT Toppin is at the top of the scouting report and will be the best player on the floor without a doubt. There are about four defenders that can rotate on him and I wonder if that will wear Toppin down and force others to beat UNCW. Red Raiders are not heavily reliant on the bench but their top six players are really good. In the end, I believe Toppin will find a way to be the special player in a special moment and win this game. Take the points with the Seahawks, though.
Pick: Texas Tech, but UNCW +15.5
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas
What a matchup and somewhat of a surprise that Arkansas not only got in but was comfortably in as a 10 seed. There are tons of interesting matchups all over the floor but the one that will decide the game will be the Arkansas guards against the Jayhawks guards. Speaking of guards, Boogie Fland is back in the fold which I’m unsure is a positive at this juncture of the season. The Hogs have been playing a lot better down the stretch but I still think highly of this Jayhawks team.
Veteran team with high upside guards who can push any team in the country but also can lose to any team in the country, well almost. Self was preaching about this team needing a break (whatever that means) but they got it and this matchup won’t be easy I believe that they can take advantage of the backcourt of Arkansas which isn’t prone to shooting well. It won’t be easy but the Jayhawks move on to the second round
Pick: Kansas -4.5
(2) St Johns vs. (15) Omaha
Pitino is back in Rhode Island where he coached in the mid 80’s and has St Johns looking for their first tournament win since 2014-2015. This is also their highest seed since the 1999-2000 season where they lost in the second round. There should be no issue here with how well defensively that St John plays.
Omaha is all offense and minimal defense. They saw a similar defense when they faced Iowa St earlier in the year and got beat by 32. That is what I expect here in the first round with St John’s defense overwhelming Omaha and saving all trash cans in Rhode Island.
Pick: St Johns -18.5
Who Goes To The Sweet 16?
Everyone has their formula for what they think will breed success in the tournament. In the regular season, I rely mostly on my power ratings. In postseason play, I’m 80% matchup-based because on a neutral floor, I believe specific matchups and tendencies matter more.
When choosing teams to bet on, I prefer great guard play first and being able to win in multiple ways. The four teams who fit that formula who I believe will make it to the Sweet 16 are Florida, Memphis, Texas Tech, and St John’s. The only concern is the health of Tyrese Hunter. I do believe they need him to raise their floor but that potential matchup with Maryland I love for the Tigers. All of these teams can win in multiple ways and I love their matchups more importantly.
