This Saturday brings us the UFC’s pay-per-view offering for March – UFC 313, going down from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. While it isn’t the most star-stuffed UFC PPV fight card, it does have the promotion’s biggest active ‘star’ – Alex Pereira – in its main event. And the always exciting action fighter Justin Gaethje in the co-main. Here are your UFC 313 predictions & best bets to make Saturday night profitable.
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UFC 313 PREDICTIONS & BEST BETS
Alex Pereira (-110) vs Magomed Ankalaev
Many people think that Magomed Ankalaev has the right package of skills to beat the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira, hence the tight betting line for Saturday’s main event. But I’m not buying it.
Ankalaev is thought of as a wrestler, but he rarely uses any wrestling/grappling in his fights as of late, and Pereira has very stout takedown defense. Ankalaev is also prone to making bad decisions in fights and not leaning into his strengths. This fight will likely be mostly a striking battle, in which case I’d pick Pereira over pretty much anyone else in the sport.
Justin Gaethje (+138) vs Rafael Fiziev
UFC 313’s co-main event was supposed to be a certified banger – Justin Gaethje vs Dan Hooker – but Hooker injured his hand and had to pull out. So we get Gaethje rematching Rafael Fiziev instead.
Gaethje already beat Fiziev, Fiziev has been out of action for over a year after destroying his knee, hasn’t won a fight in three years, and is taking this fight on short notice. I love getting Gaethje as a dog in this spot.
Ignacio Bahamondes (-125) vs Jalin Turner
Now this is an interesting matchup – two freakishly tall lightweights – 6’3″, 155-pounds. Jalin Turner has fallen on hard times lately, losing three of his last four fights, including getting TKO’d in his last fight. Meanwhile, Ignacio Bahamondes has won two straight and five of six, with his last two wins coming via T/KO.
So I’ll go with Bahamondes and hope that Turner’s chin is suspect now.
Mauricio Ruffy (-425) vs King Green
Poor King (formerly Bobby) Green – the UFC has set him up in a glue factory fight here. Send the old guy out against a young killer. Mauricio Ruffy is nicknamed ‘One Shot’ for a reason, after all.
With 50 pro fights under his belt, Green has too many miles on his chin to survive against Ruffy, who is 10 years his junior. Eventually, one of the Brazilian’s shots is going to find its mark.
Mairon Santos (-300) vs Francis Marshall
Mairon Santos is the reigning The Ultimate Fighter champion, winning the title via T/KO in last season’s finale. ‘Legend’ is an explosive, athletic fighter with fantastic knockout power.
This is a bad matchup for Francis Marshall, who is more of a grappler than a striker. He also gets hit too often to survive very long against Santos. Take the T/KO prop if you want a better line.
Check out the MMA Gambling Podcast if you’d like even more UFC 313 picks. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
