The Daytona 500 is here! After a long and grueling offseason for race fans, it’s Great American Race Week. 40 (or 41 we’ll get to that later) of the best stock car racers in the world will take to the high banks of the Daytona International Speedway to compete for the Harley J. Earl Trophy and to cement their name next to the greatest in history as a Daytona 500 Champion. So let’s take a look at every driver’s Daytona 500 odds and some of the best bets for Sunday’s race.
Qualifying events for the race start on Wednesday with single-car qualifying, while the duel races on Thursday set the race lineup and finalize the field. NASCAR’s 36 chartered teams are guaranteed a spot in the race, along with Helio Castroneves.
Castroneves has the opportunity to qualify his way into one of the four “open” spots which nine cars will be vying for. If he doesn’t make the race, he’ll get a provisional and be allowed to race as a 41st car, but will not earn any purse money. A betting note: check the rules on your book if you bet a driver not guaranteed into the race before Thursday, you may not be refunded that bet.
Betting on superspeedway racing is one of my favorite styles to bet on, but it is also one of the riskiest. You should never bet more than you are willing to lose, and at Daytona, that’s even more true. Approach this race as if you’ll lose it all and be happy if you win anything. This race will be chaotic and full of wrecks. After the first two weeks of the season, we get to a lot more predictable tracks!
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2025 Daytona 500 Odds and Best Bets
Denny Hamlin +1200
Joey Logano +1300
Brad Keselowski +1300
Ryan Blaney +1300
Kyle Busch +1400
Kyle Larson +1400
Chase Elliott +1600
Chris Buescher +1700
William Byron +1800
Bubba Wallace +2400
Christopher Bell +2400
Josh Berry +2400
Austin Cindric +2400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +2600
Tyler Reddick +2800
Chase Briscoe +2800
Ross Chastain +2800
Alex Bowman +3100
Todd Gilliland +3200
Michael McDowell +3400
Ty Gibbs +3500
*Martin Truex Jr +3500
*Justin Allgaier +3500
Daniel Suarez +4100
Noah Gragson +4300
Erik Jones +4400
Ryan Preece +4500
Austin Dillion +5000
Cole Custer +5500
Justin Haley +5500
Carson Hocevar +6000
Riley Herbert +6500
Shane Van Gisbergen +6500
AJ Allmendinger +7000
Zane Smith +7000
Helio Castroneves +7500
*Corey Lajoie +8000
Ty Dillion +8500
*Chandler Smith +9000
John Hunter Nemechek +10000
*Jimmie Johnson +12500
Cody Ware +15000
*Anthony Alfredo +20000
*JJ Yeley +50000
*BJ McLeod +50000
*Denotes an open car that isn’t guaranteed to make the race.
2025 Daytona 500 Odds and Best Bets
AJ Allmendinger Top 10 Finish (+250)
AJ Allmendinger is the first driver I’m targeting for Sunday’s big race. While he’s best known for his road course abilities and success, AJ is an underrated superspeedway driver who delivers time after time.
Allmendinger finished sixth in last year’s Daytona 500. In his last five Daytona 500 attempts, Allmendinger is five for five finishing in the top 10. In his 22 starts at the superspeedway, nine times he’s finished in the top 10. I also love AJ to win the race at 70/1.
Chase Elliott Over Kyle Larson (-115)
This matchup pits two Hendrick Motorsports drivers against each other. Chase Elliott is fresh off winning the Clash at Bowman Gray. Kyle Larson is considered by many, including myself as the greatest race car driver on the planet right now. However, Larson has one weakness, and superspeedways are that weakness.
Larson has 47 career Cup Series starts on superspeedways, but only twice has he finished inside of the top five in his career. Both top fives coming at Talladega. His 11th-place finish in last year’s 500 is his only finish better than 18th in his last seven Daytona starts.
Chase Elliott has finished in the top five in five of his last nine Daytona races. He’s won the head-to-head against Larson in 11 of their last 16 matchups on superspeedways. We’ll start betting on Larson (and plenty) in a few weeks. But for now, fade him on superspeedways.
John Hunter-Nemechek Top Finishing Toyota (+2500)
This one could have you scratching your head at first glance, but here’s the thinking. There are fewer Toyotas in the race than the other manufacturers. There are only nine Toyotas guaranteed to make the race, with two more attempting as open cars. So, think of this as a big group bet, where you are only getting most drivers in groups at +400 or less. All Nemechek has to do is beat the other Toyotas in the field. That could be finishing fifth, or 30th.
Nemechek is another one who’s underrated when it comes to superspeedway racing. In his two career starts in the Daytona 500, he’s finished 11th and seventh place. In his two fall starts at the track, he’s finished 11th and 15th. It’s been a small sample size with just four starts, but he’s gotten to the end all four times and that’s what we’re looking for in a longer-shot bet like this.
2025 Daytona 500 Odds and Best Bets
Kyle Busch to Win (+1400)
Kyle Busch is due for a bounce back in a big way. The two-time Cup Series champion snapped his 19-year win streak in 2024. However, it wasn’t as bad as it sounds. He was literally inches away from winning at Atlanta, and then cruising to a win at Kansas before a late spin cost him.
Now the Richard Childress Racing driver enters 2025 in a contract year with a lot to prove. The only thing missing from Busch’s resume is a Daytona 500 win. Another former RCR driver with a few accolades to his name, Dale Earnhardt Sr hadn’t won until his 20th try at The Great American Race. “20 years of trying, 20 years of frustration” was the call as Earnhardt finally added that trophy to his case. Could this be the year Busch gets it done? I believe so.
Busch has been great at superspeedways in this NextGen era of cars. He was the leader at the end of 500 miles two seasons ago, only to lose the race in overtime. He finished second at Daytona in the fall, the last time they were at the track. Busch has the best average finish in the NextGen car (9.3), finishing in the top 12 in five of the last six races. It’s Busch’s time to shine in 2025.
At Daytona in the Next Gen, Kyle Busch is tied for the best average finish (9.3), has the 3rd best average running position and the 4th best Driver Rating.
His worst Daytona Next Gen average finish was a 19th and that came in a race where he would’ve been the winner at the…
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) February 7, 2025
Chase Elliott to Win (+1600)
This is the year of Chase Elliott to me. I’ve already bet him to win the championship and took the over on his win total at 1.5 race wins. We’ve already seen him come out and win the exhibition race at the Clash and he can carry that momentum into Daytona.
Elliott has won at all the other two superspeedway tracks (Talladega and Atlanta) and been close at Daytona. He finished second in the 2021 Daytona 500 and top 10 in four of his last eight starts at the track.
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