Three spots remain in NASCAR’s championship race at Phoenix Raceway on November 10th. A win this week at Homestead-Miami Speedway for any of the remaining seven drivers in the Round of 8 would punch their ticket to join Joey Logano in the next round. Sunday’s race at Homestead will go live at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Let’s dive in and take a look at the NASCAR picks, odds, and playoff standings for Homestead-Miami Speedway.
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Homestead-Miami, the longtime final race of the season, will see just one more time in the playoffs for now before being moved back to March again starting in 2025. The 1.5-mile track with its worn out surface has delivered great races as of late.
It was Joey Logano who won at Las Vegas on a fuel strategy call to score his golden ticket into NASCAR’s championship race. No matter what happens the next two weeks he’s locked into the chance at a third championship title. Christopher Bell sits second +42 above the current cut line for the final four. Kyle Larson is +35 and William Byron is +27 to the good.
Denny Hamlin is -27 below the cut line, and Tyler Reddick is -30. Ryan Blaney is -47 and Chase Elliott -53 points left Las Vegas with big holes to dig out of in these next two races. No points cushion is safe, and no deficit is too big to overcome in these final two races of the Round of 8.
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Kyle Larson +350
Tyler Reddick +700
Christopher Bell +700
William Byron +800
Denny Hamlin +1200
Ryan Blaney +1400
Martin Truex Jr +2000
Chase Elliott +1800
Joey Logano +2000
Ross Chastain +2200
Ty Gibbs +2400
Brad Keselowski +2400
Kyle Busch +2500
Bubba Wallace +3000
Alex Bowman +4000
Chris Buescher +4400
Austin Cindric +6000
AJ Allmendinger +4800
Chase Briscoe +5500
Daniel Suarez +7000
Noah Gragson +1000
Austin Dillion +10000
Austin Cindric +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Carson Hocevar +11000
Ricky Stenhouse +24000
Erik Jones +24000
Zane Smith +24000
Justin Haley +24000
John Hunter Nemechek +24000
Michael McDowell +28000
Corey Lajoie +28000
Ryan Preece +34000
Todd Gilliland +34000
Harrison Burton +39000
Daniel Hemric +39000
JJ Yeley +50000
Kaz Grala +50000
Chad Finchum +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
AJ Allmendinger Over Joey Logano (+110)
Yes, this is a Cup Series matchup for this weekend. At first glance, you’d wonder why these two are even matched up and what is going on. That’s what they want you to think, and grab the Joey side of this matchup.
Logano is locked into the final four and ready to race for a championship, and that’s what the team is already looking forward to. As they should, these next two races mean nothing in their search for that third championship. Two seasons ago, Joey won at Las Vegas and locked himself in. He went on to win the championship at Phoenix but only finished 18th here at Homestead.
On top of that, Logano hasn’t had a great season from a consistency standpoint. Yes he had three wins and he’s in the final four, I think the team would take that every time. But he’s only got six top five’s and 11 top 10s in the entire season. His average finish over the last four at Homestead is just 19.5. Allmendinger has been shockingly good at Homestead in the NextGen car with finishes of third and fifth the last two years here. Combine AJ’s success here, with fading Logano this week at plus money and it’s a win all around.
Alex Bowman Top 10 (+130)
This has been one of our go-to bets on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast most of the season. Alex Bowman isn’t going to blow your socks off most weeks, but he’s super consistent. Especially during the playoffs, Bowman has been one of the best drivers in the series. Things obviously fell wrong for him at the Roval, but he bounced back last week and cashed this very bet for us.
Here at Homestead, Bowman has a top 10 in two of the last four races. And this season on 1.5-mile tracks he’s been strong. In the last four 1.5-mile races on the schedule, Bowman has been top 10. Bowman has an outstanding 17 top-10s in 2024.
Tyler Reddick to Win (+700)
This is Tyler Reddick’s best shot to compete for a championship. Coming into this week -27 below the cut line, with Martinsville up next which hasn’t been a great track for him. Homestead on the other hand has, in four career starts here Reddick has three top-four finishes. In the Xfinity Series, he’s been strong as well.
1.5-mile tracks have been a strength for Reddick. He laid a bit of a dud at Kansas but showed up fast last week in Vegas with a fast car winning stage one before getting caught in a wreck that sent him flipping on the front stretch. I’ve been on Tyler Reddick all season, and we’re going to ride him again and hope he punches his ticket to Phoenix this weekend.
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