Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for October 1. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – October 1
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
First Pitch – 2:30 pm EST
Minute Maid Park – Houston, Texas
Broadcast – ABC
In the top half of the first inning, Framber Valdez gets the start. He had an absolutely lights out September where his ERA stayed at 1.73. That dropped his season ERA down under 3.00, which put him 6th in the majors. Now he’ll get a Tigers team that was not firing on all cylinders late in the season. They scored just nine runs in their last three games, and I like their chances to get shut down for three outs here.
In the bottom of the inning, we get the presumed AL Cy Young winner on the bump – Tarik Skubal. If Valdez has a great September, it was one-upped by Skubal. He ended the month with a 1.52 ERA. He also struck out 27 in just 23.2 innings – which gave him the league lead in strikeouts. Houston was a below average team scoring in the first, which should only make this NRFI easier.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for October 1: No (-175)
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
First Pitch – 4:00 pm EST
Camden Yards – Baltimore, Maryland
Broadcast – ESPN2
Kansas City was a team that struggled for long portions of the season at the plate. They wound up finishing 13th in the majors in runs, but were far worse earlier on in the game. The Royals ranked in the bottom third of the league in scoring in the first inning. Facing Corbin Burnes shouldn’t help matters. That’s especially true as he’s allowed just one run in his last three starts combined (19.0 innings).
The bottom of the first should be a bit more of a sweat in this game. Not only is Baltimore a top five team in terms of run scoring, but they are a top ten team in terms of first inning runs. Nevertheless, I trust the arm of Cole Ragans. He has allowed just three runs over his last four starts combined and that includes two games against playoff teams. With the big game environment, I’ll run with the NRFI here as well.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for October 1: No (-160)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI picks for October 1, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
