The NFC East Division is always entertaining and unpredictable. I’m sure you’ve never heard this, but there has not been a repeat winner since the 2003-2004 Eagles. Three of the four teams have won division titles within the last five years. The New York Giants are the lone team that has not won a division title since 2011. Just a little spoiler: they will not win it this year, either. Here is my 2024 NFC East Betting Preview!
Each year we see a worst to first and vice versa within divisions. Your two candidates this year are the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders. Cases can be made for both of those that we will get into later.
If you have yet to start your NFL prep, no worries. That’s why I’m here. We will run through each team with some analysis to get you up to speed. It’s not a full deep dive, but I’m just hitting on what I feel is key information to help your opinion of the respective team. We will go according to the odds, which you should shop to ensure you are getting the proper value.
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2024 NFC East Division Betting Preview
Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 10.5 Wins)
Big year for the Eagles. They upgraded at both coordinator spots and added Saquon Barkley for more versatility in the backfield. Jalen Hurts must take another step and become more efficient through the air. Kellen Moore has improved his quarterback’s play each year as a coordinator, which should continue with Hurts.
The schedule of pass defenses is projected to be near the bottom, so if Hurts elevates his passing, this offense could be electric. On the defensive side, Vic Fangio will be critical in turning this defense back into its 2022 form. Last year, the secondary was atrocious, ranking 27th in EPA per dropback allowed. Not to mention, the pass rush fell off a cliff despite the big names in the front seven.
Not many front offices draft and develop better than Roseman and company. They did it once again this offseason, filling all of the aforementioned holes. Fangio was with the Eagles as a consultant a few years back, so he is familiar with some of the players and their tendencies. I expect massive improvements on both sides of the ball, which should result in a high win threshold.
Win Total Bet: Over 10.5 Wins
Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 Wins)
After opening the favorite to win the division, money has poured in fading the Cowboys. The offseason has been filled with storylines for all the wrong reasons.
McCarthy has his work cut out for him this year with numerous moving pieces. Mike Zimmer is in as defensive coordinator, which should elevate that side of the ball. I have fewer questions about the defense, but it will be an adjustment factor with a new scheme. They will get Diggs back in the secondary, with Bland and Parsons playing all over the front, which will be just as dangerous as he has been throughout his career.
The offensive line questions don’t help the cause or their running back situation. If they can’t be versatile on offense, we can see a HUGE step back for them. With the emergence of Washington and the improvement of the Eagles, the Cowboys could be fighting to stay in the top two. Don’t believe me, just look at the market and what professional bettors have been telling us about the Cowboys all summer.
Win Total Bet: Under 9.5 Wins
Washington Commanders (O/U 6.5 Wins)
It’s a new regime (yet again) in Washington. This time, I am optimistic about what they did in the draft and with their staff. The hire of Kingsbury to run the offense is perfect for Jayden Daniels. Kingsbury had a similar quarterback in Arizona, and those offenses had some success.
Reports say the offense will run more tempo and no huddle, which caters to Daniels’ strengths. The offensive line could benefit from a new scheme, but I’m sure they’re just happy to be out of Bienemy’s system. Daniels showcased his dual-threat ability this pre-season, and if the weapons around him can help him out, this offense has a chance to be one of the more improved units in the league.
The defense should step up with Quinn implementing his scheme. Familiarity from being in this division the last few years also helps Quinn’s defense. The offensive improvement will, in return, help this defense along with the new scheme. I think the back side is the strength, especially at linebacker. They need Jonathan Allen to emerge as a dominant pass rusher, along with some younger guys taking a leap.
Both sides of the ball received upgrades and now it’s prove it time. The win total is just about right, but if Daniels can hit the ground running, 7-10 is not farfetched. The defense creating havoc and being aggressive should lead to some short fields and not have to rely on the rookie to do it all. I remain high on the Commanders this year, but more on that in a few.
Win Total Bet: Over 6.5 Wins
New York Giants (O/U 6.5 Wins)
As a Giants fan, it pains me to say this, but it could make us money at least. This team could potentially be one of the worst in the NFL. Outside of the Patriots and Titans, from a talent perspective, the Giants are at the bottom. The quarterback is coming off a major injury and was already not good prior, so that doesn’t help. All reports along with what we’ve seen in pre-season, none of that is changing.
I love the defense, especially the addition of Burns. They could push for a wildcard berth if only the offense was competent. There are far too many questions and not enough answers surrounding the Giants. Daboll is a hell of a coach, but this roster is not ready to compete.
All three teams have upgraded significantly on one if not both, sides of the ball. Giants have the worst quarterback, offensive line, and secondary in the division. Unless the defense turns into the 2000 Ravens, it’s going to be a long season for Big Blue. I’m sorry, Kramer 🙁
Win Total Bet: Under 6.5 Wins
NFC East Betting Preview Division Winner
If you read the alternate win total article last month, you know I’m high on the Eagles. Right now, their price does not have much value. So, let’s pivot to a longer shot in the Washington Commanders. As mentioned above, I like the hires and personnel they brought in. Expect some road bumps with a rookie quarterback, but with the decline in two of the three teams, the Commanders could rise to the top.
Do I think Washington is better than Philly? No, BUT there are multiple ways to profit without them having to be better. For instance, we can bet the exact finish of the division. An order of Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants pays the same (+900) as them winning the division. If you want to just go first and second place, that pays about +650.
I recommend splitting a unit into thirds and playing each of those. I expect Dallas to take a step back, and I’m sure everyone can agree the Giants are the bottom team. With this price and Daniels’ upside, the Commanders could be the NFC’s version of last year’s Houston Texans.
Division Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (-130)
NFC East player prop
Look around the division. What other backs do you believe in? Hence, we have to lay some juice on this one. In 14 games last year, Barkley finished 16th in rushing. The next NFC running back on the list was Brian Robinson Jr., who ranked 31st.
Despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, Barkley had these numbers. He also dealt with a bevy of loaded boxes due to the inability at quarterback. All of that changes in Philly with a veteran offensive line and a far more balanced offense.
Moore’s scheme and the Eagles’ personnel allow Barkley to be more productive and less predictable. Some people forget just how good he is due to the Giants’ lack of success. This price should be closer to -175 in my estimation. There are no lead backs outside of Barkley in Philly. The other three teams will use a rotation that raises the floor for Saquon. If healthy, we should see a repeat of his rookie year.
NFC East Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Rushing Leader (-130)
