Everyone loves a DONG, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on August 9, 2024, across all MLB action.
“I’m Crash Davis; I’m your new catcher, and you just got lesson number one. Don’t think. You can only hurt the ball club.” – “Bull Durham”
They’re saying we are ELITE for giving out four plays last time, and the guy we thought wouldn’t play (Buxton) SMASHED one on his first at-bat and even hit our alt bases play, too. Soto sold, Trea sold, Vinnie P bases hit, and we are dancing. Let’s get ready for today’s slate.
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Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – August 9, 2024
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Toronto Blue Jays)
Feels like Vlad is on this list every week – and for good reason. He’s the last man standing on a poor Toronto Blue Jays team, and the guy continues to hit. He just finished a July where his wRC+ was 200, and so far in August, that number is at +291. Today, he gets Mitch Spence of the Oakland A’s – he of the 5+ road ERA and 8 dongs against away from Oakland.
Not only is Mitchie Poo pretty stinky on the road, but the guy mostly throws cutters and sliders – two pitches that ol’ Vlad loves to the tune of a .600+ wOBA and .417+ wOBA respectively. To make matters worse, he throws ’em right where Vlad likes them. Check out this heat map on where he throws cutters from Outlier.Bet:
Vlad is impossible to fade right now. Sure, you could try to make the case for the Hebrew Hammer himself, Spencer Horwitz, but Vlad has 3 barrels and is batting .554 this week ALONE. Even another famous Mitch, Mitch Kramer of Dazed & Confused, would pinch his nose and shake his head more than the 29 times he did in that movie.
We are taking the o1.5 bases at a slightly juiced -115 and his home run at +470. At this point, if Vlad is going to keep being listed at +400 or more, we’re going to bet him to hit one into some Toronto poutine stand (is that a thing? I’m making it a thing).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr o1.5 Total Bases -115 FanDuel (to win 1U)
HR +475 MGM (risk .25u)
Masataka Yoshida (Boston Red Sox)
Have you watched Cobra Kai on Netflix? It’s one of the most bonkers shows I’ve ever seen. Masataka Yoshida doesn’t appear in the show, but there are a lot of fight scenes featuring a gang of karate thugs from Japan, so it made me think of him. Anyway, let’s talk about our second favorite lefty on this Red Sox team.
Yoshi was hurt this year, so it took him a bit to round into form, but he’s been firing on all cylinders the last month – .330 BA, .495 SLG, and a wRC+ of 146 since July 1. This week alone, he has 8 hard hits to lead the team and is batting .571.
Ronel Blanco is on the bump for the Astros, and he’s been…..fine. He threw a no-hitter and then (shockingly) never was able to strike out anyone when he got caught with a “sticky stuff” substance situation.
The real fade for me is his splits on the road versus LHB (which, I know, is the entire Sox lineup). Everything goes down to poor levels – K rate, FIP, hits against, the works. He carries a HR/FB ratio of nearly 15% on the road vs. LHB and has given up 12 dingers to lucky lefties this year. They hit him hard when they hit him on the road.
Yoshi does better vs RHP, and we’re in a ballpark that favors left-handed hitters. Yoshi doesn’t hit them often, but with Blanco’s propensity for giving them up to lefties and the way Yoshi is hitting this week – I think it’s worth a play. Grabbing his o1.5 bases at +135 on BetMGM and his HR at +700. Dude is going to smash one into Andovaaaaah (I’m not from here in Boston, no idea if this is a real place).
Masataka Yoshida o1.5 Total Bases +135 Bet365 (risk 1U)
HR +700 MGM (risk .25u)
Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds)
Did you think I was going to pick Elly De La Cruz (Scott Reichel’s least favorite player)? Well, you’re wrong. He’s mashing, though – but not tonight. We’re instead going to Jonathan, India.
India may not look like much, but all of his metrics this week track where we want—the third-highest hard hit percentage (50%) since Sunday, max EV over 100 (104 mph on his 6 hard hits and 2 barrels), and most importantly, he is coming off a game where he was 0 for 4 but had two line drive outs of over 103 mph.
He’s ready to blast one or at least a double. But probably a home run. Why? Because Aaron Civale of the Milwaukee Brewers stinks.
Civale gives up home runs like it’s candy – 22 this year. That’s Shawn Boskie levels. You could probably pick Red, and it’ll hit tonight, but we are going with young Johnny since he bats leadoff, and there’s nothing better than seeing a dude start the game with a nuke.
He’s also got hits in 13 of his last 17 games versus the Brewers and 6 of his last 8 in Milwaukee. Oh and he crushes Cutters and Sinkers – Civale’s two main pitches.
We’re grabbing his total bases prop at +135, and his dong price is a juicy +700 (forget I used “juicy” and “dong” in the same sentence, please). People in Milwaukee drink, so I’m sure he’ll hit one into a bar or a pub or some dude’s literal red solo cup of beer. India to the moon!
Jonathan India o1.5 Total Bases +135 DraftKings (risk 1U)
HR +700 FanDuel (risk .25u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
I went through an entire article without making ONE January 6th joke, so enjoy. Good luck with your bets, and LET IT RIDE.
