Everyone loves a DONG, and bettors love home run props. Here are two home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on July 19, 2024, across all MLB action.
“Some lady named Ruth, Baby Ruth.” – Sandlot
So, Elly De La Cruz was the only one who came through for us last week. Everyone hit the next day, which was weird. I’m on my way to a wedding today, so this is a shortened version of the Dudes Who Dong.
Also, I gave you all Teoscar Hernandez Home Run Derby King this week, so I deserve a break. Coming off the All-Star Break, we’re only going to look at two dudes. Slow and steady as we get back into the season restart. Let’s get into it…
CHECK OUT EVEN MORE MLB ACTION ON OUR FREE PICKS PAGE
Two Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – July 19, 2024
James Wood (Washington Nationals)
James Wood is the future of the Nats. He may only be hitting .240 but he has a hard hit rate of 58% vs RHPs. He’s also hitting way better at home in a limited sample size. Who does he get today? Good Ol’ Frankie Montas on the Reds (he pitches right-handed). The kicker is, Frankie stinks vs LHHs. Guess what Jimmy Wood is? A lefty!
Everything bad about Frankie gets worse against lefties. Not to mention, Wood has hits in eight of his last ten games, and his only bomb came against a righty at home.
CJ Abrams is also lefty, and bats ahead of Wood – but his props are juiced, and he’s been in a slump lately. This game has a high total, a Reds pitcher with awful splits against righties and awful splits on the road. A recipe for Wood to make us all think of that famous meme (also named Wood) and see him dump one into the Capitol.
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases +140 DraftKings (Risk 1U)
HR +630 FanDuel (risk .25u)
Josh Naylor (Cleveland Guardians)
Josh Naylor is a fat slob. No one can convince me otherwise. He is 5’11, 250, and has the most violent swing I’ve ever seen.
But the dude simply mashes baseballs. And while he is going against Matty Knuckles himself, Matt Waldron today – he still clobbers every one of Waldron’s pitches.
Sliders? a wOBA over .400.
Fastballs? a wOBA over .400.
Sinkers? a wOBA over .350
Cutters? It’s a dip, as he “only” has a .338 wOBA there.
Waldron was last seen getting shelled by the Braves last week. Naylor was in the all-star game and didn’t do anything memorable, so you know he’ll be hungry. All of Waldron’s hard hit against metrics go up when he faces lefties. Over the past 35+ plate appearances vs RHP, Naylor has an OPS of .892 and a wRC+ of 155. He is a fat and powerful slob.
We’re taking his total bases at +105 and his home run at +470 as he prepares to send one into the Rock N Roll Hall of Fame Museum.
Josh Naylor o1.5 Total Bases +105 DraftKings (Risk 1U)
HR +470 FanDuel (risk .25u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
Again, there are weird lines the day we come back from break, so I don’t know how players will respond to the layoff. Tread lightly, my friends. Until you read me again, good luck with your bets, and LET IT RIDE.