Run over 1.5 miles, the Belmont Stakes is the 3rd and final leg of the US Triple Crown Series. Usually held at Belmont Park, this year the event is being held at Saratoga due to development work. Saturday’s race will be the 156th renewal of the ‘Run for the Carnations’. The winners of the first two Triple Crown events will feature Kentucky Derby hero Mystik Dan and Preakness Winner Seize the Grey. We picked a winner here at a lovely price with Seize the Grey last time around, so let’s see if we can go again. Here are my 2024 Belmont Stakes picks and analysis!
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Belmont Stakes 2024 – Analysis and Picks
The Contenders
1- Seize The Grey – 8/1
Seize The Grey, our Preakness hero, draws the rail this time around.
He followed up his win in a supporting race on Derby Day by making every post a winning one at Pimlico. This race has a similar look to that of Preakness. The brief here is fairly straightforward, and there’s not much to put me off. He’ll bounce out and try to make all of the running. The horse is versatile and gets on well with jockey Jaime Torres. Chance.
2 – Resilience – 10/1
Resilience finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby. From a bad draw, that was a good effort, and the 2-hole is more favorable today. The horse has decent form without really looking to win a race of this caliber. However, I think he can make the frame. His win in the Wood Memorial was good, and Bill Mott should have him ready after a small break.
3 – Mystik Dan – 8/1
Mystik Dan was theKentucky Derby Winner.
He chased home Seize the Grey in the Preakness, in what ultimately was a good effort off the heels of that Derby success. I like the fact that they are going to run him, but that recent schedule is tough. I believe there are fresher horses in the field and Mystik Dan will find one or two too good again.
4 – The Wine Steward – 25/1
This horse has some nice pieces of form. Three wins and three seconds show a level of consistency, too. This New York bred colt will be running for the local crowd and has the help of Manny Franco aboard. Having looked like a very good 2-year-old, his failure to win in Grade 3 a couple of times this year makes me question if he has the class to win this.
5 – Antiquarian – 14/1
A nice type that is on the improve. Antiquarian had some issues at the start of the Louisiana Derby but still went on to run reasonably well. He should get a good trip from this draw. Antiquarian won the Peter Pan stakes, with the Wine Steward back in second. Whilst that form in itself is not strong enough, it won’t take a huge leap forward to get involved in the business end of the Belmont.
6 – Dornoch – 20/1
If it weren’t for bad luck Dornoch would have no luck at all. He got no run from trap 1 in the Kentucky Derby, where he found trouble at every stage. The horse has speed and will look to challenge Seize the Grey at the head of affairs. He has a win over today’s favorite Sierra Leonne in the Remson to his name, and if the track comes up favoring the speed horses, he could be in the right place to try and pinch this from the front.
7 – Protective – 33/1
Still a maiden, this horse has run well in a few of the key events leading up to this. However, he has also been beaten by many of those who reoppose in this Belmont. I think he’ll give a good account of himself, but don’t see enough improvement there to want to bet him. Pass.
8 – Honor Marie – 8/1
I fancied this for the Kentucky Derby, and he actually ran okay after losing all chance at the start. After a solid 2-year-old campaign, Whit Beckman’s inmate had a couple of nice closing efforts in Grade 2 company to start this year before the Derby. If you liked him for that race, I think that you have to like him for this. Seize the Grey and Dornoch should ensure that there is a nice pace to aim at. Hopefully, Florent Geroux will be in a position to get there late and fast. Like.
9 – Sierra Leonne – 11/8
Your Belmont favorite. Sierra Leonne touched off in that memorable Derby finish after a titanic struggle down the straight. He was certainly an unlucky loser. He’s back from a short break and takes his chance as at the top of the market with good reason. Although he’s 3 from 5, he has lost a couple that he really should have won. He has a tendency to lug in toward the rail when push comes to shove.
Flavien Prat takes over from Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle, an interesting development from trainer Chad Brown. Should be there in the shadow of the post.
10 – Mindframe – 100/30
Up in class here after winning two allowance races in great style. His opposition in those two wins didn’t see which way he went, and he would’ve won pulling a cart. He clearly has stacks of ability, yet this is by far his sternest test yet. Betting this horse is a leap of faith. He could win by 15 lengths or finish plum last. I’m not sold, and he won’t be making my card.
2024 Belmont Stakes Picks
Sierra Leone and Honor Marie will be closing and around 2 turns at Saratoga, and that’s a concern. However, I think there will be enough on pace from Dornoch and Seize the Grey, so my vote goes to the former pair. You either have to be all in or all out on Mindframe, and I choose out. Seize the Grey looks vulnerable late in proceedings, whilst Mystik Dan should run his race.
Win/Place/Show 8 – Honor Marie
Exacta
7 – Sierra Leonne
8 – Honor Marie
Boxed Trifecta
3 – Mystik Dan
7 – Sierra Leonne
8 – Honor Marie
Good Luck!
