The Belmont Stakes 2026 takes place on Saturday. After a stunning success with our Preakness Stakes picks, our Triple Crown coverage finishes for the season with the Belmont Stakes. Napoleon Solo was followed home by Iron Honor in the 2nd leg for a 54-1 Exacta payout. Let’s see if we can follow it up.
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Belmont Stakes 2026: Predictions, Analysis, and Picks
The Grade 1, two-million-dollar Belmont Stakes takes centre stage at Saratoga on Saturday. The race arrives with a familiar sense of history as well as a modern twist. Because construction continues at the new Belmont Park, the race will again be run at the modified distance of one and one-quarter miles, which adds a different strategic dimension for trainers and jockeys. Even so, the Belmont remains the final leg of the Triple Crown, and it continues to attract the very best three-year-olds in training.
This year’s field of nine brings together a strong mix of returning stars and fresh challengers. Five runners come out of the Kentucky Derby, which immediately gives the race depth and narrative. Golden Tempo, the Derby winner, returns as the nine-to-two third choice on the morning line. Renegade, who finished second in the run for the roses, has been installed as the two-to-one favourite. Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and Emerging Market also reappear after finishing fourth, seventh, and tenth in Louisville.
As a result, the Belmont sets up as a fascinating rematch, and with the shorter distance at Saratoga, the race should unfold with more pace and tactical urgency than usual. Let’s get into the runners and riders.
1 – Vitruvian Man 30/1 – T Doug O’Neil , J – Antonio Fresu
Vitruvian Man enters the Belmont Stakes as one of the outsiders in the field. His overall profile suggests he faces a difficult task. Doug O’Neil’s charge finished third in the Santa Anita Derby, which was a respectable effort against stronger company, yet his running style makes him tricky to support here.
He’s not very quick, meaning that he is forced to settle well off the pace. That will leave him with too much ground to make up. He is a closer by nature, and that approach rarely suits a small field, Nor will it suit Saratoga.
2 – Powershift 12/1 T – Todd Pletcher, J – Luis Saez
Powershift arrives at the Belmont Stakes as a lightly raced colt who continues to move forward with each start. His most recent performance on Kentucky Derby day was easily his best yet. On that occasion, he delivered an impressive maiden victory, using a stalking trip to settle just behind the leaders before drawing clear to win by almost three lengths as an even-money-favourite. That breakthrough came in only his third career start and followed a sixth-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. That run is easier to forgive because he stumbled badly at the start and never found his rhythm.
3 – Chief Wallabee 3/1 T – Bill Mott J – Junior Alvarado
Chief Wallabee continues to shape as one of the more intriguing runners in this Belmont field. His profile blends raw ability with inexperience and a few frustrating habits. He went into the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts, all at Gulfstream Park. Yet he handled the chaos of the Derby far better than many expected. Despite bumping, traffic, and the usual rough passages that come with a twenty‑horse field, he closed from tenth to finish fourth and was never more than five and a half lengths off the lead at any stage.
Junior Alvarado is expected to give him a stalking trip again. Blinkers were applied on Derby day, and didn’t really help. Questions about his attitude remain. He has the engine, but he still needs to put everything together, and for now, he looks like a horse who may find one or two too strong when it matters.
4 – Renegade 2/1 T – Todd Pletcher J – Irad Ortiz Jr
Renegade comes into the Belmont Stakes as one of the most battle‑tested runners in the field, and his Kentucky Derby performance only strengthened that view. He missed winning the Derby by a neck after a trip that put him far further back than he had ever been in his previous five starts. When the gates opened, he was shunted back behind horses, and after a half mile, he was more than twelve lengths behind. From there, he had to weave through traffic, absorb more bumps, and swing widest of all, turning for home.
Having said that, he still got first run on Golden Tempo and didn’t win. With Todd Pletcher guiding him and a mid‑pack trip expected, Renegade looks set to deliver another honest, high‑level performance in the Belmont. But I think we can get him beat.
5 – Ottinho 20/1 T – Chad Brown J – Dylan Davis
Ottinho enters the Belmont Stakes with a modest record of one win from four starts. His second-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes stands as his career best. However, that level of form still leaves him short of the standard usually required to feature prominently here.
Chad Brown sends two runners to the race, and Ottinho appears to be the second string of the pair, which tempers expectations. Even so, he will arrive fresh, and his stamina profile suggests the distance will not be an issue. His maiden win at Aqueduct showed he can travel strongly when allowed to dictate, and his subsequent Derby-trial efforts proved he can stay on late against quality opposition.
Dylan Davis takes over the ride from Flavien Prat, and a patient mid‑pack trip seems likely. While he may lack the proven class of the leading contenders, Ottinho retains enough scope for improvement to surprise if conditions fall his way.
6 – Growth Equity 12/1 J – Chad Brown T – Manny Franco
Growth Equity secured his place in the Belmont Stakes with a polished victory in the Peter Pan Stakes. That day he sat just off the pace and produced a smooth, well‑timed move to win over nine furlongs. A stalking trip suited him perfectly, and the performance was both visually strong and backed by solid form.
The extra furlong here should not trouble him, since his profile suggests there is more stamina to tap into. He now makes his first appearance in a Triple Crown event, and Manny Franco returns to the saddle. Franco knows him well and rides this track with confidence. While he may not have the same depth of experience as the leading contenders, Growth Equity is improving at the right time and looks like a smart inclusion in exotic wagers.
7 – Commandment 8/1 J – Brad Cox T – John Velasquez
Commandment is one of the more attractive runners in this Belmont field, and his profile continues to suggest he is capable of better than his Kentucky Derby result. He had built a four‑race winning streak heading into Churchill Downs, using stalking trips and never sitting more than four lengths off the pace in any of those victories.
In the Derby, however, he broke a touch slowly, which immediately placed him further back than ideal. From there, he was forced to race wide to make progress, and after swinging out to launch his run, he was jostled for nearly a furlong in the stretch. With all that working against him, finishing seventh was far from a poor effort.
John Velazquez now takes over for the first time, and his experience should help secure a cleaner, more efficient trip. With strong Florida form and tactical versatility, Commandment looks primed to go well at Saratoga.
8 – Emerging Market 6/1 – Chad Brown J – Flavien Prat
Emerging Market remains one of the most compelling contenders in this Belmont Stakes lineup. Everything about his profile suggests there is still significant progress to come. His Kentucky Derby run was better than the bare result. He sat close to the early pace, enjoyed a clean trip, and was the best finisher of the horses who laid up near the front. Yes, he tired late, but he never folded, an important distinction for a colt making only the third start of his life in the most demanding race he had ever faced. That experience will have toughened him up and taught him plenty.
Chad Brown’s runner now returns as a more seasoned, more streetwise version of the horse we saw at Churchill Downs. His Louisiana Derby win showed class, his Derby effort showed heart, and his profile ticks many of the boxes you want in a Belmont horse: stamina, balance, tractability, and room for improvement. He’s an intriguing contender with genuine winning credentials. Chance.
9 – Golden Tempo 9/2 T Cherie Deveaux J – Jose Ortiz
Golden Tempo remains the quintessential deep closer in this Belmont Stakes field. Nothing about his profile suggests that will change. Jose Ortiz gave him a masterful ride in the Kentucky Derby, dropping him out last with nearly 18 lengths to make up before launching that sweeping, seven‑wide move into the stretch. That’s his style, and when it works, it’s spectacular. It’s entirely fair to expect the same approach here. Relive that Kentucky Derby win here.
His running style is both his weapon and his vulnerability. When the pace collapses, he is devastating. When it doesn’t, he needs every inch of racetrack to get involved. The 10‑furlong trip at Saratoga won’t bother him, but he will once again be dependent on a hot early tempo to set the table for that trademark late surge.
He’s a classy, talented colt with a huge engine, but the Derby was a perfect storm, a flawless ride, a pace meltdown, and a clean run despite going widest of all. That combination is hard to replicate. Respect him, include him, but at a short price, he’s not the most appealing win play.
Belmont Stakes 2026 Picks
There are only a few horses in this field that fit my profile. I want a horse drawn in the middle of the stalls, which will run a mid-pack race. That really helps to narrow it down.
Commandment is the one for me. He has form in the book, and whilst the Derby run wasn’t spectacular, it wasn’t enough to put me off either. Emerging Market ticks so many of my boxes, I can’t rule him out. Growth Equity can make the podium.
Win: 7 – Commandment 8/1
Exacta: 7 -Commandment 8 – Emerging Market
