Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props to play on Friday, May 31, 2024, across all MLB action.
“Bass sets….and sets….and sets again.” – Ranch Wilder, “Angels in the Outfield”
We swept props last week. No bombs, but Oneil Cruz, William Conteras, and Sal Perez all hit their props for us for a +3.25u week. It’s Friday now, and no one remembers two weeks ago, so it’s time for a few more players who will probably hit home runs (and their accompanying prop, as well).
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Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – May 31, 2024
Ian Happ (Chicago Cubs)
The Happ Daddy himself has had a down year, but he’s turned it on lately with a team-leading OPS of 1.030 vs. RHP the last two weeks. He switch hits, and he leads the team during that time vs. LHP, too, so we aren’t too worried about him getting hit by a bad matchup.
Happ’s been around the block and he’s seen Reds’ pitcher Graham Ashcraft before. He loves him. He hits .364 against him and slugs .455 in 13 PAs. The last time he faced Ashcraft? Last September and he smacked a double off him, so you know he’s in his head rent-free since the fall.
Since Happ switch hits, he’s probably going to hit from the left side against Ashcraft, and ol’ Graham had given up a majority of his home runs this season to dudes batting left-handed on the road. That’s our guy Ian. Happ hits righties better than lefties, hits better at home, and has a wOBA of over .600 vs. cutters. Ashcraft’s main pitch is a cutter. Uh oh. This chart from Outlier.Bet shows it very clearly – Graham is in trouble.
Since we think Happ can make it happen in a lot of ways, we’re going to take his HRR prop at -105 and sprinkle on him to send a ball out of Illinois. He’s got old man strength. He can do it.
Ian Happ o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs -105 DraftKings (to win 1U)
HR +725 MGM (risk .1u)
David Fry (Cleveland Guardians)
Still think the Guardians is a dumb name, but I digress. David Fry is the greatest hitter to put on a Cleveland jersey since Jack Parkman’s short stint in Major League 2. He’s got an OPS of 1.744 vs LHP over his past 19 PAs. He gets to go against the Crown Prince of Sucky Pitchers today – Patrick Corbin.
Corbin stinks. If you haven’t watched baseball in the past four years, you would have no idea. But he stinks. Trust me. They just trot him out there twice a week to get mashed. It’s hilarious. So we’re betting it.
Corbin is even worse against right-handed batters, so the Fry guy is a bad matchup. What better way to back a dude named “Fry” than on a Friday, amirite?
Since everyone is going to run a hit train on Corbin, I’m pretty confident taking the Hits, Runs, and RBIs here on our guy Fry. He’s also hit this an absurd nine out of the last ten games against lefties. We’re getting a bargain here, too, at -120.
All we need is for him to get on base and either get home OR get someone else home. It’s very doable. It won’t matter since he’s going to hit a ball into Erie.
David Fry o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs -125 MGM (to win 1U)
HR +600 MGM (risk .1u)
Corey Seager (Texas Rangers)
I don’t usually start an analysis by talking about the pitcher, but I will here—Sixto Sanchez is awful. He’s a former Phillies prospect who has been wrecked by injuries the last few years and is also overweight. I don’t say that to be mean; he’s legitimately very fat.
Either way, he’s way worse at home versus left-handed batters. Corey Seager, a lefty, has been crushing everything lately. He rocks a 2.205 OPS vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. That’s basically cheat code numbers. He’s just racking up XBHs too
But here’s the thing: we’re not taking Corey Seager to hit a home run – I lied to you! We’re gonna talk him to WALK. That’s right, his numbers are just too good for the Marlins to pitch to this guy. Seager has nine walks in his last ten games, three in his last five, and eight of his last ten vs RHP. Sixto has a walk rate of 13% vs lefties (that’s Corey!).
Marlins pitchers are yielding 4.8 BB/9 vs. LHH this season and their bullpen is yielding a 10% walk rate to LHH since May 1st. I know it’s not as sexy as a bomb, but walks need love, too. We’ll add him to the bomb just for shits and giggle, though.
Corey Seager o0.5 walks +105 MGM (risk 1u)
HR +425 MGM (risk .1u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
We’ll be back with more later on, but for now, enjoy these home run props for today, May 31, AND LET IT RIDE!
