The NFL never sleeps! Now that the schedule has dropped, so have the betting lines for Week 1 of the NFL. It’ll all kick off Thursday, September 5th, as the Kansas City Chiefs begin their title defense, chasing a third consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Let’s take a look at every game and the way-too-early NFL Week 1 picks and odds.
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Way Too Early NFL Week 1 Picks
Baltimore Ravens (+3 -115) at Kansas City Chiefs (-3 -115)
This should be a heavyweight throw-down to kick the season off in fashion. These two teams matched up in the AFC Championship game in 2023, with the Chiefs squeezing out a 17-10 win. The defending Super Bowl Champions are 6-4 over the last 10 seasons in their home opener the next season, including the 2022-2023 Kansas City Chiefs, who fell to the Detroit Lions after winning Super Bowl LVII.
The Ravens come into Kansas City with a chip on their shoulders, powered by their offense, which now features Derrick Henry. I expect this to be a slugfest, with maybe a touch of a Super Bowl hangover, so give me the underdog as the first NFL Week 1 pick.
Pick: Ravens +3
Green Bay Packers (+1.5 +108) vs Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5 -112)
The Packers and Eagles take the NFL to South America for the first time, where they’ll play at Corinthians Arena in São Paulo, Brazil. Jordan Love proved to be a solid signal caller for the Green Bay Packers. The Eagles started 10-1 in 2023 but lost their last five regular season games before being trounced by the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
While these could be two teams headed in opposite directions, I’m still an Eagles believer. They fell apart down the stretch for whatever reason, but they’ve locked in their studs long-term and added Saquon Barkley to the mix. They’ve upgraded both coordinators and look poised to make another run for it all in 2024. At only -1.5, I’ll take them.
Pick: Eagles -1.5
Dallas Cowboys (+1 -112) at Cleveland Browns (-1 -108)
The Dallas Cowboys head to Cleveland to face the Browns. Deshaun Watson is back under center, with Jerry Jeudy added to his receiving core. On Dallas’ side, they decided to address their running back hole with their own former star, Ezekiel Elliott.
The books seem to be covering the Cleveland home-field advantage here, outside of that I’m not sure why they are even favored in this game. Deshaun Watson hasn’t done much of anything in the league for a couple of seasons. He’s been distracted with things off-field, and we all know the Cowboys show up and play well in the regular season games, at least. Give me the Boyz here.
Pick: Cowboys +1
New England Patriots (+8 -110) at Cincinnati Bengals (-8 -110)
Will this be the debut of Drake Maye, or does Jacoby Brissett get the call for the Patriots? That’s yet to be seen, but either way, it’ll be a tall task for New England as a rebuilding team.
The Bengals have been a slow-starting team the last two seasons, losing against the spread in Week 1 both years. While eight is a big number, I think the Bengals have the clear advantage here, and you just have to lay the points.
Pick: Bengals -8
Arizona Cardinals (+7 +100) at Buffalo Bills (-7 -120)
The first game of Kyler Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr will have every fantasy football player tuned into this game. On the other side of the ball, who will be the go-to for Josh Allen with the departure of Stefon Diggs?
With one of the higher point totals on the board at 48, the books are expecting a shootout, and you should, too. These teams will likely strike back and forth all day, and it’s going to be hard for Buffalo to pull away. If the Cardinals are fully healthy with Kyler at the helm, they should be able to keep this one within a touchdown. Maybe even pull the Week 1 money line (+280) upset.
Pick: Cardinals +7
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4 -110) at Miami Dolphins (-4 -110)
A rematch of the 2019 national championship game quarterbacks as Trevor Lawrence and company head over to South Beach to take on Tua Tagovailoa and the explosive Dolphins.
These two faced off once before in the NFL in 2021, with Jacksonville taking the win in a three-point game. This might be Tua’s chance for revenge. That Dolphins offense should pick up right where they left off, while the Jaguars have some new pieces to figure out still. This one could be another shootout, but at the end of the day, I think the Dolphins cover.
Pick: Dolphins -4
Tennessee Titans (+4 -110) at Chicago Bears (-4 -110)
The Caleb Williams era kicks off at home in front of a hungry Bears crowd. Williams is in the best situation a highly touted quarterback prospect taken at No. 1 overall since Andrew Luck was selected by the Colts.
On the other side, Will Levis is the man for Tennessee and Brian Callahan takes over as Head Coach. There are a lot of unknowns, and taking a quarterback laying four points in his debut can be a little scary, but this Bears team is going to be ready to roll. Expect them to come out roaring and beat the Titans in Week 1.
Pick: Bears -4
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5 -110) at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5 -110)
More quarterback questions in this game: will it be Russell Wilson or Justin Fields for the Pittsburgh Steelers? For the Falcons, you’d think it’s Kirk Cousins, but you also probably didn’t have them picking a quarterback at No. 8 overall in the NFL Draft.
The line on this game is perfect. The Steelers are the better-coached team and probably the better team overall. While the Falcons are a good team and have a strong home-field advantage. Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is looking to get revenge against his old team, and Mike Tomlin, as a short underdog, has me interested every time.
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Houston Texans (-1.5 -110) at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5 -110)
The No. 2 and No. 4 overall picks from the 2023 NFL Draft will face off at quarterback in this one. Houston comes in after a magical first season with CJ Stroud, including a playoff stomping of the Cleveland Browns. They’ve added Stefon Diggs and appear to be going all in.
Anthony Richardson returns for the Colts and their potent offense. This is one where both teams should be good this season, and I see them splitting their two matchups. Home underdog in a close divisional matchup is the way to go.
Pick: Colts +1.5
Carolina Panthers (+4.5 -112) at New Orleans Saints (-4.5 -108)
Carolina is the lone NFL team that has no prime-time games in 2024. That Shows you what the league thinks of this team. Bryce Young returns to the helm, with some new weapons in Diontae Johnson and first-round pick Xavier Legette joining the team.
The Saints have Derek Carr back and added protection for him, among other players, in a strong 2024 draft class for the team. The question here is, how much better is this Panthers team?
They surprised the Saints in September last year at home, losing by just three points. In the second matchup, though, in December in New Orleans, the Saints won by a bloodbath. They only have to win this one by five. Until I see it from Bryce Young, I’m fine fading Carolina.
Pick: Saints -4.5
Minnesota Vikings (+1 -115) at New York Giants (-1 -105)
The Vikings head to New York to take on the New York Football Giants. This could be JJ McCarthy’s first NFL start, or Sam Darnold could return to his old stadium at the helm. The Giants gave a boost of confidence to Daniel Jones, not selecting a quarterback like McCarthy at No. 6 overall and instead getting Jones help in the form of Malik Nabors.
This one is pretty simple for me. Yes, Minnesota’s team has been good, but that was with Kirk Cousins. I don’t expect a rookie or Darnold to get the same results Cousins did right away. Jones will be playing for his life this season, and New York has home field as just a one-point favorite. I’ll take that.
Pick: Giants -1
Las Vegas Raiders (+3 -110) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3 -110)
The Raiders head to sunny Los Angeles to take on Jim Harbaugh and the revamped Chargers offense. There are some big questions in LA about this new-look Chargers team. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler all walked away from the team this offseason.
On the Raiders side of things, is Gardner Minshew the answer, and how long does it take for Davante Adams to be upset about that? Harbaugh has a knack for going places and winning, and he should be able to start off on the right foot in LA. The tough, lovable Antonio Pierce at Head Coach has been cute, but can that carry on into another season?
Pick: Chargers -3
Denver Broncos (+4.5 -110) at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5 -110)
Bo Nix’s first career start will be at the home of the 12th man in the Hawks Nest. It won’t be an easy path to victory for the Broncos new starting quarterback. Will Geno Smith still hold the keys in Seattle with a new coaching staff or does Sam Howell get the look?
Either way, being on the road in a tough environment is going to be a tough task for Nix right out of the gate, and he may need some time to develop. Not to mention, there’s been a lot of turnover on this Broncos team, and it may take some time to gel.
Pick: Seattle -4.5
Washington Commanders (+3.5 -110) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 -110)
This should be a fun one. No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels takes over for the Commanders and leads his team to Tampa Bay to take on Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers.
Tampa returns their normal cast of characters in Baker, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. While the Commanders brought in veterans like Austin Ekeler, and Zach Ertz to help out guys like Terry McLaurin. I’d expect this to be a close one, and I think Daniels starts off his career with a win and draws early CJ Stroud comparisons.
Pick: Commanders +3.5
Los Angeles Rams (+3 -105) at Detroit Lions (-3.5 -115)
The Sunday Night Football game to cap off the first week of games should be a classic. There may not be a more perfect trade in NFL history than when these teams swapped quarterbacks. The Rams got their Super Bowl title, while the Lions got assets and ended up landing their franchise quarterback, who just got a massive extension.
This could easily be the highest-scoring game of the weekend and could turn into an instant classic. I agree with the books that the Lions should be the favorites, especially as the host. It’s tempting to take the Rams in what should be a close one as Stanford returns to Detroit, but the Lions are going to show up motivated, behind Dan Campbell’s overwhelming amount of caffeine, and pull off the cover in this one.
Pick Lions -3.5
New York Jets (+5.5 -105) at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5 -115)
Aaron Rodgers Jets debut on Monday Night Football take two. Rodgers will hope to last more than four snaps this season as he looks to lead Gang Green to the promised land. The 49ers are coming off an overtime loss in Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs. Their second loss to the Chiefs in the big game in the last four seasons.
Rodgers may be 0-4 against the 49ers in the postseason, but the good news for Jets fans is his regular season record is a strong 6-3. The last two times he’s faced the 49ers in the regular season and in four of his last five games, Rodgers has taken down San Francisco.
Can he beat this current 49ers team is the question, and that’ll be a tall task. Can the 40-year-old quarterback at least keep his team within 5.5 points in primetime? I think he can. In the final game of Week 1, give me Rodgers and the Jets to cover a close game.
Pick: Jets +5.5
