The Kentucky Derby is right around the corner. While many people walk into the event blind or taking stabs at fun names, we would like to give you some insight that could help make you – along with your horse – a winner on Saturday. We’ve listed some of our favorite Kentucky Derby picks for the event based on your appetite for risk. Plus, we’ve dropped in our Kentucky Derby best bet. Don’t miss any of what we have for you!
2024 Kentucky Derby Preview, Picks, and Predictions
Date: Saturday, May 4th
Post Time: 6:57 pm EST
Broadcast: NBC
Post Positions:
1 – Dornoch (20-1)
2 – Sierra Leone (3-1)
3 – Mystik Dan (20-1)
4 – Catching Freedom (8-1)
5 – Catalytic (30-1)
6 – Just Steel (20-1)
7 – Honor Marie (20-1)
8 – Just a Touch (10-1)
9 – T O Password (30-1)
10 – Forever Young (10-1)
11 – Track Phantom (20-1)
12 – West Saratoga (50-1)
13 – Endlessly (30-1)
14 – Domestic Product (30-1)
15 – Grand Mo the First (50-1)
16 – Fierceness (5-2)
17 – Stronghold (20-1)
18 – Resilience (20-1)
19 – Society Man (50-1)
20 – Epic Ride (30-1)
The Favorite: #17 Fierceness (5-2)
Fierceness enters the Kentucky Debry as the favorite, and for good reason. He has not only won races recently but is absolutely smoking the competition when he does so. At the end of March, he competed and won the Florida Derby. It was the way he did so that earned him the status that he has here – which is to say that he did so by 13 lengths.
In addition to blowing other horses out of the water, there is some level of consistency to this horse. He has won three of the five races that he’s been in. As with all favorites, you have to ask yourself if the juice is worth the squeeze, but in this case, I have to imagine that #17 winds up front.
The Longshot: #20 Society Man (50-1)
If you like to tune in to the Kentucky Derby with a little skin on a big dog, there’s no better place to look than Society Man. He has finished in the top two of each of the last two races he’s competed in. Additionally, his speed seems to be picking up from race to race – at the very least, over the last three races.
Back in April at the Wood Memorial, those improvements led him to a second place finish behind Resilience – who will also be in the Derby. As a result, I think you can safely expect Society Man to perform better than what the odds suggest.
The Easy Finisher: #2 Sierra Leone (3-1)
If you’re looking for a horse that you are sure is going to at least show, Sierra Leone is your pony. This horse’s speed is going to be ranked amongst the very top in the field, no matter what metric you’re using. No matter what level of competition we see it up against, we constantly see it ranked in the top 3. While it may not be a sexy play for an outright winner, you would be crazy not to include it in your exactas and trifectas.
The Best Bet: #19 Resilience (20-1)
If there is a horse that has the most value, I have to side with Resilience. The horse has won two of its last three races, which is already no easy feat. One of those wins was over the aforementioned Society Man, and others in the field have fallen to this 20-to-1 horse.
Plus, if you’re looking for a pedigree that you like, this is the horse to ride – so to speak. William Mott, the trainer of Resilience, won the Kentucky Derby back in 2019 with Country House. Between this, the long odds, and the recent spark, I think my Kentucky Derby best bet and the best place to lay your money would be with #19.
If you’d like even more info on the Kentucky Derby, including more best bets and picks, be sure to check out the Notorious OTB: The Podcast. The guys are giving you the insight to be the smartest at the ticker window.